first pass analytics redo

fix(rss): stop future-verse leaks, correct timezone dates, fix feed discovery

.env.example

@@ -1,11 +1,27 @@
 DATABASE_URL=example.db
 
+# Local-only admin bypass for testing /admin/stats without the real admin
+# account. NEVER enable in production (it is also force-disabled when
+# NODE_ENV=production).
+# DEV_ADMIN_ALL=true
+
 # Cron job secret for protected endpoints (e.g. send-daily-verse)
 CRON_SECRET=your-cron-secret-here
 
 # Discord webhook URL for posting the daily verse
 DISCORD_DAILY_WEBHOOK=https://discord.com/api/webhooks/your-webhook-url
 
+# Discord admin webhook for the daily statistics digest (optional; digest is skipped if unset)
+DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK=https://discord.com/api/webhooks/your-admin-webhook-url
+
+# Statistics thresholds (optional; these override the built-in defaults)
+# STATS_CORE_PLAYS_PER_WEEK=4
+# STATS_CHURN_DAYS=30
+# STATS_D1_TARGET=20
+# STATS_RETURN7_TARGET=25
+# STATS_FIRST_TRY_MIN=15
+# STATS_FIRST_TRY_MAX=35
+
 PUBLIC_SITE_URL=https://bibdle.com
 
 # nodemailer

README.md

@@ -44,14 +44,18 @@ bun run db:migrate   # run migrations
 bun run db:studio    # open Drizzle Studio GUI
 ```
 
+The statistics dashboard migration (`drizzle/0004_slim_nomad.sql`) is **purely additive**: it creates `stats_snapshot`, `analytics_events` and `dashboard_settings`, and adds a nullable `user.created_at`. It never alters or drops historical rows. To replicate to production, apply that SQL to `prod.db` (e.g. `sqlite3 prod.db < drizzle/0004_slim_nomad.sql`) **before** deploying the new code. Applying it twice is safe for the new tables only if you skip the existing objects; run it once.
+
 ### Environment Variables
 
 See `.env.example`. Required/used variables:
 
 - `DATABASE_URL` — path to the SQLite database file (e.g. `prod.db`)
 - `PUBLIC_SITE_URL` — canonical site URL
-- `CRON_SECRET` — bearer token protecting the cron-only `/api/send-daily-verse` endpoint
+- `CRON_SECRET` — bearer token protecting the cron-only `/api/send-daily-verse` and `/api/cron/build-stats` endpoints
 - `DISCORD_DAILY_WEBHOOK` — webhook for posting the daily verse to Discord
+- `DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK` — optional webhook for the daily statistics digest (digest is skipped when unset)
+- `STATS_*` — optional overrides for dashboard thresholds (`STATS_D1_TARGET`, `STATS_CORE_PLAYS_PER_WEEK`, …); see `src/lib/types/stats.ts` for defaults
 - `AUTH_SECRET` — secret for Apple Sign-In
 - `APPLE_ID` / `APPLE_TEAM_ID` / `APPLE_KEY_ID` / `APPLE_PRIVATE_KEY` — Apple Sign-In credentials
 - `SMTP_USERNAME` / `SMTP_TOKEN` / `SMTP_SERVER` / `SMTP_PORT` — email (nodemailer)
@@ -60,11 +64,14 @@ See `.env.example`. Required/used variables:
 
 ### Database Schema (`src/lib/server/db/schema.ts`)
 
-- **user** — `id`, `firstName`, `lastName`, `email` (unique), `passwordHash`, `appleId` (unique), `googleId` (unique), `isPrivate`
+- **user** — `id`, `firstName`, `lastName`, `email` (unique), `passwordHash`, `appleId` (unique), `googleId` (unique), `isPrivate`, `createdAt` (nullable; existing accounts show "unknown")
 - **session** — `id` (SHA-256 hash of token), `userId` (FK), `expiresAt`
 - **dailyVerses** — cached daily verse: `date` (unique), `bookId`, `verseText`, `reference`, `createdAt`
 - **dailyCompletions** — one row per player/date: `anonymousId`, `date`, `guessCount`, `guesses` (JSON of book IDs, nullable), `completedAt`. Unique on `(anonymousId, date)` to prevent duplicate submissions.
 - **verseSubmissions** — a log of community-submitted future verses: `id`, `userId` (FK → `user.id` ON DELETE SET NULL), `scheduledDate` (unique `YYYY-MM-DD` matching a `dailyVerses` row), `selectedBookId`, `selectedChapter`, `selectedVerse` (the anchor the user picked), `submittedAt` (server UTC millis, drives the 7-day cooldown). Indexed on `userId` (cooldown lookup) and `scheduledDate` (unique). The canonical verse text/reference lives on `dailyVerses`, joined by `scheduledDate`.
+- **statsSnapshot** — one immutable JSON aggregate row per as-of day (`date` PK, `generatedAt`, `buildKind`, `configVersion`, `payload`, `playerState`, `config`). Powers `/admin/stats` with point-in-time reads.
+- **analyticsEvents** — generic event log (`id`, `name`, `anonymousId`, `userId`, `date`, `createdAt`, `metadata`) with a partial unique index deduping `verse_served` per player/day.
+- **dashboardSettings** — key/value overrides for dashboard thresholds.
 
 Sessions expire after 30 days and auto-renew when fewer than 15 days remain.
 
@@ -113,17 +120,21 @@ Authenticated users who have solved today's puzzle can submit a verse for schedu
 | `/greek-random` | Debug page showing a random verse in parallel Greek (1904) / English (NKJV). |
 | `/similarity` | Search a sentence and return the most similar Bible verses via the (currently disabled) embeddings model. |
 | `/about` | About page with the project's backstory and social links. |
-| `/global` | Public stats dashboard: completions today/all-time, unique & weekly & monthly players, active streak distribution, 14-day completions trend, retention/return-rate metrics. |
+| `/global` | Slim public community-stats widget: all-time finishes/players, weekly/monthly players, yesterday's finishes + average guesses, and a 30-day finish calendar. Reads the latest daily snapshot; no retention/churn/signup data. |
 | `/progress` | Personal progress page (requires auth): activity calendar, 66-book grid with mastery tiers, insights, and achievements/milestones. |
 | `/stats` | Personal stats page (requires auth); returns `requiresAuth: true` for unauthenticated visitors and renders a sign-in modal. |
 | `/dev` | Local-time / countdown debug page. |
 | `/scheduled-verses` | Admin-only (gated to `ADMIN_EMAIL` in `src/lib/server/admin.ts`). Full historical + future log of `verseSubmissions` joined to `dailyVerses` and `user`, sorted by scheduled date. The sole surface where submitter identity is shown. Not linked from the UI. |
+| `/admin/stats` | Admin-only private **Growth Console** (gated to `ADMIN_EMAIL`). Once-daily, point-in-time snapshot; date navigator, “Mature this view”, editable thresholds, Pulse, Growth Loop, Retention, Verse Mix, Habit, Signals and Glossary. Set `?date=YYYY-MM-DD`; `?mature=1` recomputes old cohorts using later data. |
 
 ### API Endpoints
 
 | Endpoint | Description |
 | --- | --- |
-| `POST /api/daily-verse` | Fetch (and cache) the verse for a given `YYYY-MM-DD` date. |
+| `POST /api/daily-verse` | Fetch (and cache) the verse for a given `YYYY-MM-DD` date. Also records a deduped `verse_served` event for the supplied `anonymousId` (started→finished funnel). |
+| `POST /api/events` | Fire-and-forget analytics sink. Allowlisted names: `verse_served`, `share`, `share_copy`, `first_visit`, `donate_click`, `discord_click`; `userId` resolved from the session. Always returns 204. |
+| `POST /api/cron/build-stats` | Cron-only (bearer `CRON_SECRET`). Builds yesterday's snapshot (`America/New_York`) and posts the digest to `DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK`. |
+| `POST /api/admin/rebuild-stats` | Admin-only. Rebuilds one snapshot: `{ date: 'YYYY-MM-DD' }`. |
 | `POST /api/submit-completion` | Submit a game result (`anonymousId`, `date`, `guessCount`, `guesses`); returns solve rank, guess rank, total solves, average guesses, ties, and percentile. Unique on `(anonymousId, date)`. |
 | `GET /api/streak?anonymousId=X&localDate=Y` | Current streak: walks backwards from the client's local date through completed dates, counting consecutive days. Single-day streaks are reported as 0 (minimum displayed streak is 2). |
 | `GET /api/streak-percentile?streak=N&localDate=Y` | Streak percentile ranking computed across all players' current streaks. |
@@ -184,7 +195,10 @@ A streak counts consecutive calendar days (in the player's local timezone) on wh
 | `src/lib/stores/game-persistence.svelte.ts` | Reactive localStorage-backed game state |
 | `src/lib/server/db/schema.ts` | Drizzle ORM schema |
 | `src/hooks.server.ts` | Session validation hook; (commented-out) embeddings init |
-| `tests/` | Bun test suites: timezone, game, bible, stats, share, sign-in migration |
+| `tests/` | Bun test suites: timezone, game, bible, stats, share, sign-in migration, and `stats-*` (metrics, segments, settings, events, signals, snapshot, digest) |
+| `src/lib/server/stats/*` | Statistics engine: `metrics.ts`, `segments.ts`, `snapshot.ts`, `signals.ts`, `settings.ts`, `events.ts`, `digest.ts`, `dates.ts`. |
+| `src/lib/components/stats/*` | Growth Console UI (Pulse, Growth Loop, Retention/Verse Mix/Habit labs, Signals, Settings, Glossary). |
+| `src/lib/utils/analytics.ts` | Client event helper (`track`, anonymous ID, first-visit capture). |
 
 ## Deployment
 

bun.lock

@@ -224,8 +224,6 @@
 
     "@tailwindcss/vite": ["@tailwindcss/vite@4.1.18", "", { "dependencies": { "@tailwindcss/node": "4.1.18", "@tailwindcss/oxide": "4.1.18", "tailwindcss": "4.1.18" }, "peerDependencies": { "vite": "^5.2.0 || ^6 || ^7" } }, "sha512-jVA+/UpKL1vRLg6Hkao5jldawNmRo7mQYrZtNHMIVpLfLhDml5nMRUo/8MwoX2vNXvnaXNNMedrMfMugAVX1nA=="],
 
-    "@types/better-sqlite3": ["@types/better-sqlite3@7.6.13", "", { "dependencies": { "@types/node": "*" } }, "sha512-NMv9ASNARoKksWtsq/SHakpYAYnhBrQgGD8zkLYk/jaK8jUGn08CfEdTRgYhMypUQAfzSP8W6gNLe0q19/t4VA=="],
-
     "@types/bun": ["@types/bun@1.3.8", "", { "dependencies": { "bun-types": "1.3.8" } }, "sha512-3LvWJ2q5GerAXYxO2mffLTqOzEu5qnhEAlh48Vnu8WQfnmSwbgagjGZV6BoHKJztENYEDn6QmVd949W4uESRJA=="],
 
     "@types/cookie": ["@types/cookie@0.6.0", "", {}, "sha512-4Kh9a6B2bQciAhf7FSuMRRkUWecJgJu9nPnx3yzpsfXX/c50REIqpHY4C82bXP90qrLtXtkDxTZosYO3UpOwlA=="],
@@ -418,10 +416,6 @@
 
     "bcrypt-pbkdf": ["bcrypt-pbkdf@1.0.2", "", { "dependencies": { "tweetnacl": "^0.14.3" } }, "sha512-qeFIXtP4MSoi6NLqO12WfqARWWuCKi2Rn/9hJLEmtB5yTNr9DqFWkJRCf2qShWzPeAMRnOgCrq0sg/KLv5ES9w=="],
 
-    "better-sqlite3": ["better-sqlite3@12.6.2", "", { "dependencies": { "bindings": "^1.5.0", "prebuild-install": "^7.1.1" } }, "sha512-8VYKM3MjCa9WcaSAI3hzwhmyHVlH8tiGFwf0RlTsZPWJ1I5MkzjiudCo4KC4DxOaL/53A5B1sI/IbldNFDbsKA=="],
-
-    "bindings": ["bindings@1.5.0", "", { "dependencies": { "file-uri-to-path": "1.0.0" } }, "sha512-p2q/t/mhvuOj/UeLlV6566GD/guowlr0hHxClI0W9m7MWYkL1F0hLo+0Aexs9HSPCtR1SXQ0TD3MMKrXZajbiQ=="],
-
     "bl": ["bl@4.1.0", "", { "dependencies": { "buffer": "^5.5.0", "inherits": "^2.0.4", "readable-stream": "^3.4.0" } }, "sha512-1W07cM9gS6DcLperZfFSj+bWLtaPGSOHWhPiGzXmvVJbRLdG82sH/Kn8EtW1VqWVA54AKf2h5k5BbnIbwF3h6w=="],
 
     "blakejs": ["blakejs@1.2.1", "", {}, "sha512-QXUSXI3QVc/gJME0dBpXrag1kbzOqCjCX8/b54ntNyW6sjtoqxqRk3LTmXzaJoh71zMsDCjM+47jS7XiwN/+fQ=="],
@@ -698,8 +692,6 @@
 
     "file-type": ["file-type@5.2.0", "", {}, "sha512-Iq1nJ6D2+yIO4c8HHg4fyVb8mAJieo1Oloy1mLLaB2PvezNedhBVm+QU7g0qM42aiMbRXTxKKwGD17rjKNJYVQ=="],
 
-    "file-uri-to-path": ["file-uri-to-path@1.0.0", "", {}, "sha512-0Zt+s3L7Vf1biwWZ29aARiVYLx7iMGnEUl9x33fbB/j3jR81u/O2LbqK+Bm1CDSNDKVtJ/YjwY7TUd5SkeLQLw=="],
-
     "finalhandler": ["finalhandler@1.3.2", "", { "dependencies": { "debug": "2.6.9", "encodeurl": "~2.0.0", "escape-html": "~1.0.3", "on-finished": "~2.4.1", "parseurl": "~1.3.3", "statuses": "~2.0.2", "unpipe": "~1.0.0" } }, "sha512-aA4RyPcd3badbdABGDuTXCMTtOneUCAYH/gxoYRTZlIJdF0YPWuGqiAsIrhNnnqdXGswYk6dGujem4w80UJFhg=="],
 
     "flatbuffers": ["flatbuffers@1.12.0", "", {}, "sha512-c7CZADjRcl6j0PlvFy0ZqXQ67qSEZfrVPynmnL+2zPc+NtMvrF8Y0QceMo7QqnSPc7+uWjUIAbvCQ5WIKlMVdQ=="],
@@ -1498,8 +1490,6 @@
 
     "@tailwindcss/oxide-wasm32-wasi/tslib": ["tslib@2.8.1", "", { "bundled": true }, "sha512-oJFu94HQb+KVduSUQL7wnpmqnfmLsOA/nAh6b6EH0wCEoK0/mPeXU6c3wKDV83MkOuHPRHtSXKKU99IBazS/2w=="],
 
-    "@types/better-sqlite3/@types/node": ["@types/node@22.19.3", "", { "dependencies": { "undici-types": "~6.21.0" } }, "sha512-1N9SBnWYOJTrNZCdh/yJE+t910Y128BoyY+zBLWhL3r0TYzlTmFdXrPwHL9DyFZmlEXNQQolTZh3KHV31QDhyA=="],
-
     "asn1.js/bn.js": ["bn.js@4.12.3", "", {}, "sha512-fGTi3gxV/23FTYdAoUtLYp6qySe2KE3teyZitipKNRuVYcBkoP/bB3guXN/XVKUe9mxCHXnc9C4ocyz8OmgN0g=="],
 
     "babel-code-frame/js-tokens": ["js-tokens@3.0.2", "", {}, "sha512-RjTcuD4xjtthQkaWH7dFlH85L+QaVtSoOyGdZ3g6HFhS9dFNDfLyqgm2NFe2X6cQpeFmt0452FJjFG5UameExg=="],

drizzle/0004_slim_nomad.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+CREATE TABLE `analytics_events` (
+	`id` text PRIMARY KEY NOT NULL,
+	`name` text NOT NULL,
+	`anonymous_id` text,
+	`user_id` text,
+	`date` text,
+	`created_at` integer NOT NULL,
+	`metadata` text,
+	FOREIGN KEY (`user_id`) REFERENCES `user`(`id`) ON UPDATE no action ON DELETE set null
+);
+--> statement-breakpoint
+CREATE INDEX `analytics_events_name_date_idx` ON `analytics_events` (`name`,`date`);--> statement-breakpoint
+CREATE INDEX `analytics_events_anonymous_id_date_idx` ON `analytics_events` (`anonymous_id`,`date`);--> statement-breakpoint
+CREATE UNIQUE INDEX `analytics_events_serve_unique` ON `analytics_events` (`name`,`anonymous_id`,`date`) WHERE "analytics_events"."name" = 'verse_served';--> statement-breakpoint
+CREATE TABLE `dashboard_settings` (
+	`key` text PRIMARY KEY NOT NULL,
+	`value` text NOT NULL,
+	`updated_at` integer NOT NULL
+);
+--> statement-breakpoint
+CREATE TABLE `stats_snapshot` (
+	`date` text PRIMARY KEY NOT NULL,
+	`generated_at` integer NOT NULL,
+	`build_kind` text NOT NULL,
+	`config_version` text NOT NULL,
+	`payload` text NOT NULL,
+	`player_state` text,
+	`config` text NOT NULL
+);
+--> statement-breakpoint
+ALTER TABLE `user` ADD `created_at` integer;

drizzle/meta/0003_snapshot.json

@@ -281,6 +281,94 @@
       "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
       "uniqueConstraints": {},
       "checkConstraints": {}
+    },
+    "verse_submissions": {
+      "name": "verse_submissions",
+      "columns": {
+        "id": {
+          "name": "id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "user_id": {
+          "name": "user_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "scheduled_date": {
+          "name": "scheduled_date",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "selected_book_id": {
+          "name": "selected_book_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "selected_chapter": {
+          "name": "selected_chapter",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "selected_verse": {
+          "name": "selected_verse",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "submitted_at": {
+          "name": "submitted_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {
+        "verse_submissions_scheduled_date_unique": {
+          "name": "verse_submissions_scheduled_date_unique",
+          "columns": [
+            "scheduled_date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": true
+        },
+        "verse_submissions_user_id_idx": {
+          "name": "verse_submissions_user_id_idx",
+          "columns": [
+            "user_id"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": false
+        }
+      },
+      "foreignKeys": {
+        "verse_submissions_user_id_user_id_fk": {
+          "name": "verse_submissions_user_id_user_id_fk",
+          "tableFrom": "verse_submissions",
+          "tableTo": "user",
+          "columnsFrom": [
+            "user_id"
+          ],
+          "columnsTo": [
+            "id"
+          ],
+          "onDelete": "set null",
+          "onUpdate": "no action"
+        }
+      },
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
     }
   },
   "views": {},

drizzle/meta/0004_snapshot.json

@@ -0,0 +1,581 @@
+{
+  "version": "6",
+  "dialect": "sqlite",
+  "id": "6b6e3771-d705-4bbb-9b36-97f4f402fc5d",
+  "prevId": "80883fb9-70cd-4fa5-b228-36358ffc4c40",
+  "tables": {
+    "analytics_events": {
+      "name": "analytics_events",
+      "columns": {
+        "id": {
+          "name": "id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "name": {
+          "name": "name",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "anonymous_id": {
+          "name": "anonymous_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "user_id": {
+          "name": "user_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "date": {
+          "name": "date",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "created_at": {
+          "name": "created_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "metadata": {
+          "name": "metadata",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {
+        "analytics_events_name_date_idx": {
+          "name": "analytics_events_name_date_idx",
+          "columns": [
+            "name",
+            "date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": false
+        },
+        "analytics_events_anonymous_id_date_idx": {
+          "name": "analytics_events_anonymous_id_date_idx",
+          "columns": [
+            "anonymous_id",
+            "date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": false
+        },
+        "analytics_events_serve_unique": {
+          "name": "analytics_events_serve_unique",
+          "columns": [
+            "name",
+            "anonymous_id",
+            "date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": true,
+          "where": "\"analytics_events\".\"name\" = 'verse_served'"
+        }
+      },
+      "foreignKeys": {
+        "analytics_events_user_id_user_id_fk": {
+          "name": "analytics_events_user_id_user_id_fk",
+          "tableFrom": "analytics_events",
+          "tableTo": "user",
+          "columnsFrom": [
+            "user_id"
+          ],
+          "columnsTo": [
+            "id"
+          ],
+          "onDelete": "set null",
+          "onUpdate": "no action"
+        }
+      },
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
+    },
+    "daily_completions": {
+      "name": "daily_completions",
+      "columns": {
+        "id": {
+          "name": "id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "anonymous_id": {
+          "name": "anonymous_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "date": {
+          "name": "date",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "guess_count": {
+          "name": "guess_count",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "guesses": {
+          "name": "guesses",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "completed_at": {
+          "name": "completed_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {
+        "anonymous_id_date_idx": {
+          "name": "anonymous_id_date_idx",
+          "columns": [
+            "anonymous_id",
+            "date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": false
+        },
+        "date_idx": {
+          "name": "date_idx",
+          "columns": [
+            "date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": false
+        },
+        "date_guess_idx": {
+          "name": "date_guess_idx",
+          "columns": [
+            "date",
+            "guess_count"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": false
+        },
+        "daily_completions_anonymous_id_date_unique": {
+          "name": "daily_completions_anonymous_id_date_unique",
+          "columns": [
+            "anonymous_id",
+            "date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": true
+        }
+      },
+      "foreignKeys": {},
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
+    },
+    "daily_verses": {
+      "name": "daily_verses",
+      "columns": {
+        "id": {
+          "name": "id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "date": {
+          "name": "date",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "book_id": {
+          "name": "book_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "verse_text": {
+          "name": "verse_text",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "reference": {
+          "name": "reference",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "created_at": {
+          "name": "created_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {
+        "daily_verses_date_unique": {
+          "name": "daily_verses_date_unique",
+          "columns": [
+            "date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": true
+        }
+      },
+      "foreignKeys": {},
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
+    },
+    "dashboard_settings": {
+      "name": "dashboard_settings",
+      "columns": {
+        "key": {
+          "name": "key",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "value": {
+          "name": "value",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "updated_at": {
+          "name": "updated_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {},
+      "foreignKeys": {},
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
+    },
+    "session": {
+      "name": "session",
+      "columns": {
+        "id": {
+          "name": "id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "user_id": {
+          "name": "user_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "expires_at": {
+          "name": "expires_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {},
+      "foreignKeys": {
+        "session_user_id_user_id_fk": {
+          "name": "session_user_id_user_id_fk",
+          "tableFrom": "session",
+          "tableTo": "user",
+          "columnsFrom": [
+            "user_id"
+          ],
+          "columnsTo": [
+            "id"
+          ],
+          "onDelete": "no action",
+          "onUpdate": "no action"
+        }
+      },
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
+    },
+    "stats_snapshot": {
+      "name": "stats_snapshot",
+      "columns": {
+        "date": {
+          "name": "date",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "generated_at": {
+          "name": "generated_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "build_kind": {
+          "name": "build_kind",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "config_version": {
+          "name": "config_version",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "payload": {
+          "name": "payload",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "player_state": {
+          "name": "player_state",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "config": {
+          "name": "config",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {},
+      "foreignKeys": {},
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
+    },
+    "user": {
+      "name": "user",
+      "columns": {
+        "id": {
+          "name": "id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "first_name": {
+          "name": "first_name",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "last_name": {
+          "name": "last_name",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "email": {
+          "name": "email",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "password_hash": {
+          "name": "password_hash",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "apple_id": {
+          "name": "apple_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "google_id": {
+          "name": "google_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "is_private": {
+          "name": "is_private",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false,
+          "default": false
+        },
+        "created_at": {
+          "name": "created_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {
+        "user_email_unique": {
+          "name": "user_email_unique",
+          "columns": [
+            "email"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": true
+        },
+        "user_apple_id_unique": {
+          "name": "user_apple_id_unique",
+          "columns": [
+            "apple_id"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": true
+        },
+        "user_google_id_unique": {
+          "name": "user_google_id_unique",
+          "columns": [
+            "google_id"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": true
+        }
+      },
+      "foreignKeys": {},
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
+    },
+    "verse_submissions": {
+      "name": "verse_submissions",
+      "columns": {
+        "id": {
+          "name": "id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": true,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "user_id": {
+          "name": "user_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": false,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "scheduled_date": {
+          "name": "scheduled_date",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "selected_book_id": {
+          "name": "selected_book_id",
+          "type": "text",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "selected_chapter": {
+          "name": "selected_chapter",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "selected_verse": {
+          "name": "selected_verse",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        },
+        "submitted_at": {
+          "name": "submitted_at",
+          "type": "integer",
+          "primaryKey": false,
+          "notNull": true,
+          "autoincrement": false
+        }
+      },
+      "indexes": {
+        "verse_submissions_scheduled_date_unique": {
+          "name": "verse_submissions_scheduled_date_unique",
+          "columns": [
+            "scheduled_date"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": true
+        },
+        "verse_submissions_user_id_idx": {
+          "name": "verse_submissions_user_id_idx",
+          "columns": [
+            "user_id"
+          ],
+          "isUnique": false
+        }
+      },
+      "foreignKeys": {
+        "verse_submissions_user_id_user_id_fk": {
+          "name": "verse_submissions_user_id_user_id_fk",
+          "tableFrom": "verse_submissions",
+          "tableTo": "user",
+          "columnsFrom": [
+            "user_id"
+          ],
+          "columnsTo": [
+            "id"
+          ],
+          "onDelete": "set null",
+          "onUpdate": "no action"
+        }
+      },
+      "compositePrimaryKeys": {},
+      "uniqueConstraints": {},
+      "checkConstraints": {}
+    }
+  },
+  "views": {},
+  "enums": {},
+  "_meta": {
+    "schemas": {},
+    "tables": {},
+    "columns": {}
+  },
+  "internal": {
+    "indexes": {}
+  }
+}

drizzle/meta/_journal.json

@@ -29,6 +29,13 @@
       "when": 1774416309647,
       "tag": "0003_overjoyed_mindworm",
       "breakpoints": true
+    },
+    {
+      "idx": 4,
+      "version": "6",
+      "when": 1789505566968,
+      "tag": "0004_slim_nomad",
+      "breakpoints": true
     }
   ]
 }

package.json

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
 	"type": "module",
 	"scripts": {
 		"dev": "bun --bun vite dev",
-		"build": "vite build",
+		"build": "bun --bun vite build",
 		"preview": "vite preview",
 		"prepare": "svelte-kit sync || echo ''",
 		"check": "svelte-kit sync && svelte-check --tsconfig ./tsconfig.json",

src/app.html

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@
 		<meta charset="utf-8" />
 		<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, viewport-fit=cover" />
 			<link rel="icon" href="/favicon.png" type="image/png" />
+		<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Bibdle RSS Feed" href="/feed.xml" />
 		%sveltekit.head%
 	</head>
 	<body data-sveltekit-preload-data="hover">

src/lib/components/WinScreen.svelte

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@
 	import StreakCounter from "./StreakCounter.svelte";
 	import ChapterGuess from "./ChapterGuess.svelte";
 	import SubmitVerse from "./SubmitVerse.svelte";
+	import { track } from "$lib/utils/analytics";
 
 	interface StatsData {
 		solveRank: number;
@@ -256,11 +257,13 @@
 						: "Copy to Clipboard"}
 					onclick={() => {
 						if (hasWebShare) {
+							track("share", { snippet: includeSnippet });
 							shareResult(effectiveShareText);
 						} else {
 							if (!copyTracked) {
 								copyTracked = true;
 							}
+							track("share_copy", { snippet: includeSnippet });
 							clipboardCopy(effectiveShareText);
 							copySuccess = true;
 							setTimeout(() => {
@@ -289,6 +292,7 @@
 						if (!copyTracked) {
 							copyTracked = true;
 						}
+						track("share_copy", { snippet: includeSnippet });
 						clipboardCopy(effectiveShareText);
 						showSnippetOption = true;
 						bubbleCopied = true;
@@ -429,6 +433,7 @@
 			rel="noopener noreferrer"
 			class="discord-btn w-full"
 			data-umami-event="Join the BIBDLE Discord"
+			onclick={() => track("discord_click")}
 		>
 			<svg
 				class="discord-icon"
@@ -454,6 +459,7 @@
 			rel="noopener noreferrer"
 			class="progress-btn w-full"
 			data-umami-event="Support bibdle's development"
+			onclick={() => track("donate_click")}
 		>
 			<span>❤️ Support bibdle's development</span>
 			<svg class="progress-chev" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true">

src/lib/components/charts/BarList.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	interface Item {
+		label: string;
+		value: number;
+		color?: string;
+		sub?: string;
+	}
+	interface Props {
+		items: Item[];
+		format?: (v: number) => string;
+		signed?: boolean;
+	}
+	let { items, format = (v) => String(v), signed = false }: Props = $props();
+
+	const maxAbs = $derived(Math.max(1, ...items.map((i) => Math.abs(i.value))));
+</script>
+
+<div class="flex w-full flex-col gap-1.5">
+	{#each items as item (item.label)}
+		<div class="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs">
+			<span class="w-20 shrink-0 text-gray-400">{item.label}</span>
+			<div class="relative h-4 flex-1 overflow-hidden rounded bg-white/5">
+				<div
+					class="absolute top-0 h-full rounded {item.value < 0 ? 'right-1/2 bg-rose-500/60' : 'left-0'}"
+					style={`width:${(Math.abs(item.value) / maxAbs) * 100}%;${item.value < 0 ? '' : `background:${item.color ?? 'rgba(56,189,248,0.5)'}`}`}
+				></div>
+			</div>
+			<span class="w-16 shrink-0 text-right font-medium text-gray-200">
+				{signed && item.value >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{format(item.value)}
+			</span>
+		</div>
+	{/each}
+</div>

src/lib/components/charts/CalendarHeatmap.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	interface Props {
+		data: { date: string; count: number }[];
+		color?: string;
+	}
+	let { data, color = '52,211,153' }: Props = $props();
+
+	const values = $derived(new Map(data.map((d) => [d.date, d.count])));
+	const max = $derived(Math.max(1, ...data.map((d) => d.count)));
+
+	// Build Sunday-aligned weeks ending on the last date.
+	const weeks = $derived.by(() => {
+		if (data.length === 0) return [] as { date: string; inRange: boolean }[][];
+		const first = new Date(data[0].date + 'T00:00:00Z');
+		const start = new Date(first);
+		start.setUTCDate(start.getUTCDate() - start.getUTCDay());
+		const last = new Date(data[data.length - 1].date + 'T00:00:00Z');
+		const end = new Date(last);
+		end.setUTCDate(end.getUTCDate() + (6 - end.getUTCDay()));
+		const range = new Set(data.map((d) => d.date));
+		const out: { date: string; inRange: boolean }[][] = [];
+		let cursor = new Date(start);
+		while (cursor <= end) {
+			const week: { date: string; inRange: boolean }[] = [];
+			for (let d = 0; d < 7; d++) {
+				const iso = cursor.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+				week.push({ date: iso, inRange: range.has(iso) });
+				cursor.setUTCDate(cursor.getUTCDate() + 1);
+			}
+			out.push(week);
+		}
+		return out;
+	});
+</script>
+
+<div class="overflow-x-auto">
+	<div class="flex gap-1">
+		<div class="flex flex-col justify-between py-0.5 text-[9px] text-gray-500">
+			<span>Sun</span><span>Wed</span><span>Sat</span>
+		</div>
+		<div class="flex gap-[3px]">
+			{#each weeks as week, wi (wi)}
+				<div class="flex flex-col gap-[3px]">
+					{#each week as cell (cell.date)}
+						{@const count = values.get(cell.date) ?? 0}
+						<div
+							class="h-3 w-3 rounded-[2px]"
+							style={cell.inRange
+								? `background:rgba(${color},${(0.12 + 0.88 * (count / max)).toFixed(3)})`
+								: 'background:transparent'}
+							title={cell.inRange ? `${cell.date}: ${count} finishes` : cell.date}
+						></div>
+					{/each}
+				</div>
+			{/each}
+		</div>
+	</div>
+</div>

src/lib/components/charts/CohortHeatmap.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import type { CohortRow } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+	interface Props {
+		cohorts: CohortRow[];
+		weeks?: number;
+	}
+	let { cohorts, weeks = 8 }: Props = $props();
+
+	function shade(rate: number | null): string {
+		if (rate === null) return 'background:rgba(255,255,255,0.03)';
+		const t = Math.min(1, rate / 100);
+		return `background:rgba(16,185,129,${(0.08 + 0.82 * t).toFixed(3)})`;
+	}
+</script>
+
+<div class="overflow-x-auto">
+	<table class="border-separate border-spacing-0.5 text-[10px] text-gray-400">
+		<thead>
+			<tr>
+				<th class="pr-2 text-right font-normal">Cohort</th>
+				<th class="pr-2 font-normal">Size</th>
+				{#each Array(weeks) as _w, k (k)}
+					<th class="w-8 font-normal">W{k}</th>
+				{/each}
+			</tr>
+		</thead>
+		<tbody>
+			{#each cohorts as row (row.weekStart)}
+				<tr>
+					<td class="pr-2 text-right whitespace-nowrap text-gray-300">{row.weekStart.slice(5)}</td>
+					<td class="pr-2 text-right text-gray-400">{row.size}</td>
+					{#each Array(weeks) as _w, k (k)}
+						{@const rate = row.rates[k] ?? null}
+						<td
+							class="h-6 w-8 rounded-sm text-center align-middle text-gray-900"
+							style={shade(rate)}
+							title={`Week ${k}: ${rate === null ? 'not resolved' : rate + '%'}`}
+						>
+							{rate === null ? '' : Math.round(rate)}
+						</td>
+					{/each}
+				</tr>
+			{/each}
+		</tbody>
+	</table>
+</div>

src/lib/components/charts/HeatmapGrid.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	interface Props {
+		rowLabels: string[];
+		colLabels: string[];
+		values: number[][];
+		max?: number;
+		color?: string;
+		format?: (v: number) => string;
+		cellSize?: number;
+	}
+	let {
+		rowLabels,
+		colLabels,
+		values,
+		max,
+		color = '16,185,129',
+		format = (v) => String(v),
+		cellSize = 22
+	}: Props = $props();
+
+	const effectiveMax = $derived(
+		max ?? Math.max(1, ...values.flat().filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v)))
+	);
+</script>
+
+<div class="overflow-x-auto">
+	<table class="border-separate border-spacing-0.5 text-[10px] text-gray-400">
+		<thead>
+			<tr>
+				<th></th>
+				{#each colLabels as label, c (c)}
+					<th class="px-0.5 font-normal">{label}</th>
+				{/each}
+			</tr>
+		</thead>
+		<tbody>
+			{#each rowLabels as row, r (r)}
+				<tr>
+					<th class="pr-1 text-right font-normal whitespace-nowrap">{row}</th>
+					{#each colLabels as _label, c (c)}
+						{@const v = values[r]?.[c] ?? 0}
+						<td
+							class="rounded-sm text-center align-middle text-[9px] text-gray-900"
+							style={`width:${cellSize}px;height:${cellSize}px;background:rgba(${color},${Math.min(1, v / effectiveMax).toFixed(3)})`}
+							title={`${row} · ${colLabels[c]}: ${format(v)}`}
+						>
+							{v > 0 ? format(v) : ''}
+						</td>
+					{/each}
+				</tr>
+			{/each}
+		</tbody>
+	</table>
+</div>

src/lib/components/charts/MiniLineChart.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,254 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	interface Series {
+		name: string;
+		color: string;
+		points: { date: string; value: number | null }[];
+		step?: boolean;
+	}
+	interface Props {
+		series: Series[];
+		height?: number;
+		ySuffix?: string;
+		yMin?: number;
+		yMax?: number;
+		showLegend?: boolean;
+	}
+	let {
+		series,
+		height = 180,
+		ySuffix = '',
+		yMin,
+		yMax,
+		showLegend = true
+	}: Props = $props();
+
+	const W = 600;
+	const pad = { l: 36, r: 10, t: 10, b: 22 };
+	const innerW = W - pad.l - pad.r;
+	const innerH = $derived(height - pad.t - pad.b);
+
+	const allValues = $derived(
+		series.flatMap((s) => s.points.map((p) => p.value)).filter((v): v is number => v !== null)
+	);
+	const domain = $derived.by(() => {
+		const lo = yMin ?? (allValues.length ? Math.min(...allValues) : 0);
+		const hi = yMax ?? (allValues.length ? Math.max(...allValues) : 1);
+		const span = hi - lo || 1;
+		return { lo: yMin ?? lo - span * 0.1, hi: yMax ?? hi + span * 0.1 };
+	});
+
+	const pointCount = $derived(
+		Math.max(1, ...series.map((s) => s.points.length))
+	);
+
+	function xAt(i: number): number {
+		if (pointCount <= 1) return pad.l + innerW / 2;
+		return pad.l + (i / (pointCount - 1)) * innerW;
+	}
+	function yAt(v: number): number {
+		const t = (v - domain.lo) / (domain.hi - domain.lo || 1);
+		return pad.t + innerH - t * innerH;
+	}
+
+	/** Break a series into path segments so nulls create gaps. */
+	const paths = $derived(
+		series.map((s) => {
+			const segments: string[] = [];
+			let current: string[] = [];
+			s.points.forEach((p, i) => {
+				if (p.value === null) {
+					if (current.length) segments.push(current.join(' '));
+					current = [];
+					return;
+				}
+				current.push(`${xAt(i).toFixed(1)},${yAt(p.value).toFixed(1)}`);
+			});
+			if (current.length) segments.push(current.join(' '));
+			return { name: s.name, color: s.color, segments, step: s.step };
+		})
+	);
+
+	const firstLabel = $derived(series[0]?.points[0]?.date?.slice(5) ?? '');
+	const lastLabel = $derived(
+		series[0]?.points[series[0].points.length - 1]?.date?.slice(5) ?? ''
+	);
+
+	// --- Hover / tooltip state -------------------------------------------------
+	let wrapperEl: HTMLDivElement | undefined = $state();
+	let hoverIndex = $state<number | null>(null);
+
+	function handlePointerMove(event: PointerEvent) {
+		if (!wrapperEl || pointCount <= 0) return;
+		const rect = wrapperEl.getBoundingClientRect();
+		if (rect.width === 0) return;
+		const scale = rect.width / W;
+		const svgX = (event.clientX - rect.left) / scale;
+		if (pointCount <= 1) {
+			hoverIndex = 0;
+			return;
+		}
+		const t = (svgX - pad.l) / innerW;
+		const i = Math.round(t * (pointCount - 1));
+		hoverIndex = Math.min(pointCount - 1, Math.max(0, i));
+	}
+
+	function clearHover() {
+		hoverIndex = null;
+	}
+
+	/** Rows shown in the tooltip for the currently hovered index. */
+	const hoverRows = $derived.by(() => {
+		const i = hoverIndex;
+		if (i === null) return [];
+		return series.map((s) => ({
+			name: s.name,
+			color: s.color,
+			value: s.points[i]?.value ?? null
+		}));
+	});
+
+	const hoveredDate = $derived.by(() => {
+		if (hoverIndex === null) return null;
+		for (const s of series) {
+			const point = s.points[hoverIndex];
+			if (point) return point.date;
+		}
+		return null;
+	});
+
+	const hasHoverValues = $derived(hoverRows.some((r) => r.value !== null));
+
+	const tooltipLeft = $derived(
+		hoverIndex === null ? 50 : Math.min(85, Math.max(15, (xAt(hoverIndex) / W) * 100))
+	);
+
+	function formatValue(value: number | null): string {
+		if (value === null) return '—';
+		const rounded = Number.isInteger(value) ? value : Number(value.toFixed(1));
+		return `${rounded.toLocaleString()}${ySuffix}`;
+	}
+</script>
+
+<div
+	class="relative w-full touch-pan-y"
+	bind:this={wrapperEl}
+	role="presentation"
+	onpointermove={handlePointerMove}
+	onpointerleave={clearHover}
+	onpointercancel={clearHover}
+>
+	<svg
+		viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${height}`}
+		class="w-full text-gray-400"
+		style={`height:${height}px`}
+		role="img"
+	>
+		<!-- gridlines -->
+		{#each [0, 0.5, 1] as t}
+			<line
+				x1={pad.l}
+				x2={W - pad.r}
+				y1={pad.t + innerH * t}
+				y2={pad.t + innerH * t}
+				stroke="currentColor"
+				stroke-opacity="0.15"
+				stroke-dasharray="2 3"
+			/>
+		{/each}
+		<text x={4} y={pad.t + 4} fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.8" font-size="9">
+			{domain.hi.toFixed(0)}{ySuffix}
+		</text>
+		<text x={4} y={pad.t + innerH} fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.8" font-size="9">
+			{domain.lo.toFixed(0)}{ySuffix}
+		</text>
+
+		{#each paths as s (s.name)}
+			{#each s.segments as d}
+				<polyline
+					points={d}
+					fill="none"
+					stroke={s.color}
+					stroke-width="1.75"
+					stroke-linejoin="round"
+					stroke-linecap="round"
+					vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"
+					opacity={hoverIndex === null ? 1 : 0.45}
+					style="transition:opacity 120ms ease"
+				/>
+			{/each}
+		{/each}
+
+		{#if hoverIndex !== null}
+			<!-- crosshair -->
+			<line
+				x1={xAt(hoverIndex)}
+				x2={xAt(hoverIndex)}
+				y1={pad.t}
+				y2={pad.t + innerH}
+				stroke="currentColor"
+				stroke-opacity="0.5"
+				stroke-dasharray="3 3"
+				vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"
+			/>
+			<!-- highlighted points -->
+			{#each hoverRows as row (row.name)}
+				{#if row.value !== null}
+					<circle
+						cx={xAt(hoverIndex)}
+						cy={yAt(row.value)}
+						r="3.5"
+						fill={row.color}
+						stroke="#0b0b12"
+						stroke-width="1.5"
+						vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"
+					/>
+				{/if}
+			{/each}
+		{/if}
+
+		<text x={pad.l} y={height - 6} fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.8" font-size="9">
+			{firstLabel}
+		</text>
+		<text
+			x={W - pad.r}
+			y={height - 6}
+			text-anchor="end"
+			fill="currentColor"
+			fill-opacity="0.8"
+			font-size="9"
+		>
+			{lastLabel}
+		</text>
+	</svg>
+
+	{#if hoverIndex !== null && hoveredDate !== null && hasHoverValues}
+		<div
+			class="pointer-events-none absolute top-1 z-10 -translate-x-1/2 rounded-lg border border-white/15 bg-gray-900/95 px-2.5 py-1.5 text-[11px] leading-tight text-gray-100 shadow-lg backdrop-blur-sm"
+			style={`left:${tooltipLeft}%`}
+		>
+			<p class="mb-1 font-semibold text-gray-300">{hoveredDate}</p>
+			<ul class="flex flex-col gap-0.5">
+				{#each hoverRows as row (row.name)}
+					<li class="flex items-center justify-between gap-3">
+						<span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5">
+							<span class="h-2 w-2 shrink-0 rounded-full" style={`background:${row.color}`}></span>
+							{row.name}
+						</span>
+						<span class="font-semibold tabular-nums text-gray-100">{formatValue(row.value)}</span>
+					</li>
+				{/each}
+			</ul>
+		</div>
+	{/if}
+
+	{#if showLegend && series.length > 1}
+		<div class="mt-1 flex flex-wrap gap-3 text-[11px] text-gray-300">
+			{#each series as s (s.name)}
+				<span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
+					<span class="h-2 w-2 rounded-full" style={`background:${s.color}`}></span>
+					{s.name}
+				</span>
+			{/each}
+		</div>
+	{/if}
+</div>

src/lib/components/charts/Sparkline.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	interface Props {
+		values: number[];
+		width?: number;
+		height?: number;
+		class?: string;
+		stroke?: string;
+	}
+	let {
+		values,
+		width = 120,
+		height = 32,
+		class: className = '',
+		stroke = 'currentColor'
+	}: Props = $props();
+
+	const points = $derived.by(() => {
+		if (values.length === 0) return '';
+		const min = Math.min(...values);
+		const max = Math.max(...values);
+		const span = max - min || 1;
+		return values
+			.map((v, i) => {
+				const x = values.length === 1 ? width / 2 : (i / (values.length - 1)) * width;
+				const y = height - ((v - min) / span) * (height - 4) - 2;
+				return `${x.toFixed(1)},${y.toFixed(1)}`;
+			})
+			.join(' ');
+	});
+</script>
+
+<svg
+	viewBox={`0 0 ${width} ${height}`}
+	class={className}
+	preserveAspectRatio="none"
+	aria-hidden="true"
+>
+	{#if points}
+		<polyline
+			{points}
+			fill="none"
+			{stroke}
+			stroke-width="1.5"
+			stroke-linejoin="round"
+			stroke-linecap="round"
+			vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"
+		/>
+	{/if}
+</svg>

src/lib/components/charts/StatusPill.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import type { SignalSeverity } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+	interface Props {
+		severity: SignalSeverity;
+		children?: import('svelte').Snippet;
+		label?: string;
+	}
+	let { severity, children, label }: Props = $props();
+
+	const styles: Record<SignalSeverity, string> = {
+		good: 'bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-300 border-emerald-500/30',
+		info: 'bg-sky-500/15 text-sky-300 border-sky-500/30',
+		warn: 'bg-amber-500/15 text-amber-200 border-amber-500/30',
+		bad: 'bg-rose-500/15 text-rose-300 border-rose-500/30'
+	};
+	const dots: Record<SignalSeverity, string> = {
+		good: 'bg-emerald-400',
+		info: 'bg-sky-400',
+		warn: 'bg-amber-400',
+		bad: 'bg-rose-400'
+	};
+</script>
+
+<span
+	class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-xs font-semibold {styles[
+		severity
+	]}"
+>
+	<span class="h-1.5 w-1.5 rounded-full {dots[severity]}"></span>
+	{#if children}{@render children()}{:else}{label}{/if}
+</span>

src/lib/components/stats/BookCoverage.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import { bibleBooks, type BibleSection, type Testament } from '$lib/types/bible';
+	import type { BookStat } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+	interface Props {
+		coverage: BookStat[];
+	}
+	let { coverage }: Props = $props();
+
+	interface Tile extends BookStat {
+		name: string;
+	}
+
+	interface SectionGroup {
+		section: BibleSection;
+		testament: Testament;
+		books: Tile[];
+		days: number;
+		plays: number;
+		covered: number;
+		firstTryWeightedSum: number;
+		firstTryPlays: number;
+	}
+
+	const byId = $derived(new Map(coverage.map((c) => [c.bookId, c])));
+	const maxDays = $derived(Math.max(1, ...coverage.map((c) => c.days)));
+	const totalDays = $derived(coverage.reduce((a, b) => a + b.days, 0));
+	const totalPlays = $derived(coverage.reduce((a, b) => a + b.plays, 0));
+
+	/** Red → orange → yellow → green, driven by days featured relative to the busiest book. */
+	function coverageColor(days: number): string {
+		if (days <= 0) return 'hsl(220, 9%, 55%)';
+		const t = Math.min(1, days / maxDays);
+		return `hsl(${Math.round(t * 142)}, 78%, 55%)`;
+	}
+
+	const legendStops = [0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1];
+	const legendGradient = $derived(
+		`linear-gradient(90deg, ${legendStops
+			.map((t) => `hsl(${Math.round(t * 142)}, 78%, 55%) ${Math.round(t * 100)}%`)
+			.join(', ')})`
+	);
+	const legendTicks = $derived(legendStops.map((t) => Math.round(t * maxDays)));
+
+	/** Consecutive runs of books sharing a section (preserves canonical order). */
+	const groups = $derived.by(() => {
+		const out: SectionGroup[] = [];
+		for (const book of bibleBooks) {
+			const stat = byId.get(book.id);
+			if (!stat) continue;
+			let group = out[out.length - 1];
+			if (!group || group.section !== book.section || group.testament !== book.testament) {
+				group = {
+					section: book.section,
+					testament: book.testament,
+					books: [],
+					days: 0,
+					plays: 0,
+					covered: 0,
+					firstTryWeightedSum: 0,
+					firstTryPlays: 0
+				};
+				out.push(group);
+			}
+			group.books.push({ ...stat, name: book.name });
+			group.days += stat.days;
+			group.plays += stat.plays;
+			if (stat.days > 0) group.covered++;
+			if (stat.plays > 0) {
+				group.firstTryWeightedSum += stat.firstTryPct * stat.plays;
+				group.firstTryPlays += stat.plays;
+			}
+		}
+		return out;
+	});
+</script>
+
+<div class="flex w-full flex-col gap-5">
+	<!-- Numeric colour legend -->
+	<div class="flex flex-col gap-1">
+		<div class="flex items-center justify-between text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">
+			<span>Featured less</span>
+			<span>Days featured →</span>
+			<span>Featured more</span>
+		</div>
+		<div class="h-3 w-full rounded-full ring-1 ring-inset ring-white/10" style={`background:${legendGradient}`}></div>
+		<div class="flex justify-between text-[10px] tabular-nums text-gray-300">
+			{#each legendTicks as tick}
+				<span class="font-semibold">{tick}</span>
+			{/each}
+		</div>
+		<p class="flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[10px] text-gray-500">
+			<span class="inline-block h-2.5 w-2.5 rounded-sm ring-1 ring-inset ring-white/10" style="background:hsl(220, 9%, 55%)"></span>
+			never featured (0 days)
+		</p>
+	</div>
+
+	<!-- Sections -->
+	<div class="flex flex-col gap-6">
+		{#each groups as group (group.testament + group.section)}
+			{@const share = totalDays ? Math.round((group.days / totalDays) * 100) : 0}
+			{@const avgFirstTry = group.firstTryPlays
+				? Math.round(group.firstTryWeightedSum / group.firstTryPlays)
+				: null}
+			<div class="flex flex-col gap-2">
+				<div class="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-b border-white/10 pb-1">
+					<h3 class="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-bold text-gray-100">
+						{group.section}
+						<span class="rounded bg-white/10 px-1.5 py-0.5 text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-300">
+							{group.testament === 'old' ? 'OT' : 'NT'}
+						</span>
+					</h3>
+					<p class="text-[11px] text-gray-400">
+						<span class="font-semibold text-gray-200">{group.covered}/{group.books.length}</span> books covered ·
+						<span class="font-semibold text-gray-200">{group.days}</span> days ({share}%) ·
+						<span class="font-semibold text-gray-200">{group.plays}</span> plays
+						{#if avgFirstTry !== null}
+							· avg first-try <span class="font-semibold text-gray-200">{avgFirstTry}%</span>
+						{/if}
+					</p>
+				</div>
+				<div class="h-1 w-full overflow-hidden rounded-full bg-white/5">
+					<div
+						class="h-full rounded-full bg-white/40"
+						style={`width:${share}%`}
+					></div>
+				</div>
+				<div class="grid grid-cols-4 gap-1.5 sm:grid-cols-6 md:grid-cols-8 lg:grid-cols-11">
+					{#each group.books as book (book.bookId)}
+						<div
+							class="flex min-h-11 flex-col items-center justify-center rounded-lg bg-white/5 px-1 py-1 text-center ring-1 ring-inset ring-white/10 transition-colors duration-100 hover:bg-white/10"
+							title={`${book.name}: featured ${book.days} day${book.days === 1 ? '' : 's'}, ${book.plays} play${book.plays === 1 ? '' : 's'}`}
+						>
+							<span class="text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">{book.bookId}</span>
+							<span class="text-base font-bold leading-tight" style={`color:${coverageColor(book.days)}`}>{book.days}</span>
+						</div>
+					{/each}
+				</div>
+			</div>
+		{/each}
+	</div>
+
+	<p class="text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+		66 books over the last 180 days · {totalDays} featured days · {totalPlays} plays. Colour is scaled
+		to the busiest book ({maxDays} day{maxDays === 1 ? '' : 's'}). Hover a tile for full details.
+	</p>
+</div>

src/lib/components/stats/ConsoleChrome.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import DateNavigator from './DateNavigator.svelte';
+	import SettingsMenu from './SettingsMenu.svelte';
+	import { formatDateLabel } from '$lib/utils/stats-format';
+	import type { StatsSettings } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+	interface Props {
+		date: string;
+		today: string;
+		generatedAt: Date;
+		buildKind: string;
+		matured: boolean;
+		stale: boolean;
+		settings: StatsSettings;
+	}
+	let { date, today, generatedAt, buildKind, matured, stale, settings }: Props = $props();
+
+	const matureHref = $derived(
+		`/admin/stats?date=${date}${matured ? '' : '&mature=1'}`
+	);
+	const generatedLabel = $derived(
+		generatedAt instanceof Date ? generatedAt.toISOString().slice(0, 16).replace('T', ' ') : ''
+	);
+</script>
+
+<header
+	class="sticky top-0 z-20 -mx-4 mb-4 border-b border-white/10 bg-gray-950/85 px-4 py-3 backdrop-blur"
+>
+	<div class="mx-auto flex max-w-6xl flex-col gap-3">
+		<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3">
+			<div class="flex items-center gap-3">
+				<a href="/" class="text-sm text-gray-400 hover:text-gray-200">← Game</a>
+				<h1 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-100">Growth Console</h1>
+			</div>
+			<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
+				<DateNavigator {date} {today} mature={matured} />
+				<a
+					href={matureHref}
+					class="rounded-lg border px-3 py-1.5 text-xs font-semibold {matured
+						? 'border-amber-400/50 bg-amber-400/15 text-amber-200'
+						: 'border-white/10 bg-white/5 text-gray-300 hover:bg-white/10'}"
+				>
+					{matured ? 'Matured view ✓' : 'Mature this view'}
+				</a>
+			</div>
+		</div>
+
+		<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				Showing <span class="font-semibold text-gray-200">{formatDateLabel(date)}</span>
+				· snapshot built {generatedLabel} UTC
+				{#if buildKind}<span class="uppercase tracking-wide"> · {buildKind}</span>{/if}
+				{#if matured}
+					<span class="font-semibold text-amber-300"> · Matured — uses data after this date.</span>
+				{/if}
+			</p>
+		</div>
+
+		<SettingsMenu {settings} {stale} />
+	</div>
+</header>

src/lib/components/stats/DateNavigator.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import { goto } from '$app/navigation';
+
+	interface Props {
+		date: string;
+		today: string;
+		mature: boolean;
+	}
+	let { date, today, mature }: Props = $props();
+
+	function shift(dateStr: string, n: number): string {
+		const d = new Date(dateStr + 'T00:00:00Z');
+		d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate() + n);
+		return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+	}
+
+	const hrefFor = (d: string) => `/admin/stats?date=${d}${mature ? '&mature=1' : ''}`;
+	const prev = $derived(shift(date, -1));
+	const next = $derived(shift(date, 1));
+	const nextDisabled = $derived(next > today);
+
+	function onDateChange(event: Event) {
+		const value = (event.currentTarget as HTMLInputElement).value;
+		if (value) goto(hrefFor(value));
+	}
+</script>
+
+<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
+	<a
+		href={hrefFor(prev)}
+		class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/5 px-3 py-1.5 text-sm text-gray-200 hover:bg-white/10"
+		aria-label="Previous day"
+	>
+		←
+	</a>
+	<input
+		type="date"
+		value={date}
+		max={today}
+		onchange={onDateChange}
+		class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-black/30 px-2 py-1.5 text-sm text-gray-100 focus:border-blue-400 focus:outline-none"
+	/>
+	{#if nextDisabled}
+		<span
+			class="cursor-not-allowed rounded-lg border border-white/5 bg-white/5 px-3 py-1.5 text-sm text-gray-600"
+			aria-label="Next day (unavailable)"
+		>
+			→
+		</span>
+	{:else}
+		<a
+			href={hrefFor(next)}
+			class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/5 px-3 py-1.5 text-sm text-gray-200 hover:bg-white/10"
+			aria-label="Next day"
+		>
+			→
+		</a>
+	{/if}
+	<a
+		href={hrefFor(today)}
+		class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-white/5 px-3 py-1.5 text-xs font-semibold text-gray-300 hover:bg-white/10"
+	>
+		Latest
+	</a>
+</div>

src/lib/components/stats/FeatureImpact.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+</script>
+
+<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+	<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">7 · Feature Impact</h2>
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Needs data</p>
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+			Feature-usage events are deferred. The <code>analytics_events</code> table already supports
+			them; only the emit points remain. Once added, this panel will show:
+		</p>
+		<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-xs text-gray-400">
+			<li>Imposter-mode entries and their return rate</li>
+			<li>Hint reveals per finish and whether they help retention</li>
+			<li>Progress-page visits as a signup/retention signal</li>
+			<li>Verse submissions and their effect on next-day return</li>
+		</ul>
+	</Container>
+</section>

src/lib/components/stats/Glossary.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+
+	interface GlossaryEntry {
+		name: string;
+		definition: string;
+		action: string;
+	}
+
+	/** Mirrors statistics-plan.md §5. Single source for on-page definitions. */
+	const GLOSSARY: GlossaryEntry[] = [
+		{ name: 'Players today', definition: 'Finished the puzzle yesterday.', action: 'Investigate content or traffic.' },
+		{ name: 'WAU / MAU', definition: 'Played at least once in the last 7 / 30 days.', action: 'Reach vs habit.' },
+		{ name: 'Core players', definition: 'Finished 4+ times this week.', action: 'If falling, it is a retention problem.' },
+		{ name: 'Returning share', definition: 'Played before today vs. first time.', action: 'Low = acquisition-heavy and leaky.' },
+		{ name: 'D1 return', definition: 'First-timers who came back the next day.', action: 'The number one activation lever.' },
+		{ name: 'Return rate (any)', definition: 'Played again within N days.', action: 'Onboarding quality.' },
+		{ name: 'Overall return rate', definition: 'Ever played more than once.', action: 'Overall stickiness.' },
+		{ name: 'Net growth', definition: 'New + resurrected − churned.', action: 'Is the base expanding?' },
+		{ name: 'Completion rate', definition: 'Started → finished.', action: 'Friction or confusion.' },
+		{ name: 'Signup rate', definition: 'Players who made an account.', action: 'Account value.' },
+		{ name: 'First-try rate', definition: 'Solved with no wrong guesses.', action: 'Too high = giveaway; too low = brutal.' },
+		{ name: 'Share rate', definition: 'Shares ÷ finishes.', action: 'Virality.' },
+		{ name: 'Streak survival', definition: 'Chance a streak continues.', action: 'Streak feature return on investment.' }
+	];
+</script>
+
+<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+	<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">8 · Notes &amp; Glossary</h2>
+	<Container class="p-2 md:p-4 w-full overflow-x-auto">
+		<table class="w-full text-left text-sm text-gray-200">
+			<thead class="border-b border-white/10 text-xs uppercase text-gray-400">
+				<tr>
+					<th class="px-2 py-2 md:px-3">Metric</th>
+					<th class="px-2 py-2 md:px-3">Plain definition</th>
+					<th class="px-2 py-2 md:px-3">What to do if it's off</th>
+				</tr>
+			</thead>
+			<tbody>
+				{#each GLOSSARY as entry (entry.name)}
+					<tr class="border-b border-white/5 align-top">
+						<td class="px-2 py-2 font-medium md:px-3">{entry.name}</td>
+						<td class="px-2 py-2 text-gray-300 md:px-3">{entry.definition}</td>
+						<td class="px-2 py-2 text-gray-400 md:px-3">{entry.action}</td>
+					</tr>
+				{/each}
+			</tbody>
+		</table>
+	</Container>
+	<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">
+		Snapshots are point-in-time. A day where a metric did not exist shows
+		“—”.
+	</p>
+</section>

src/lib/components/stats/GrowthLoop.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import MiniLineChart from '$lib/components/charts/MiniLineChart.svelte';
+	import BarList from '$lib/components/charts/BarList.svelte';
+	import type { SnapshotPayload } from '$lib/types/stats';
+	import { signed, numOrDash } from '$lib/utils/stats-format';
+
+	interface Props {
+		payload: SnapshotPayload;
+	}
+	let { payload }: Props = $props();
+
+	const series = $derived(payload.dailySeries.slice(-60));
+	const hasStarted = $derived(payload.meta.hasStartedData);
+	const signupTotal = $derived(payload.growth.signups.reduce((a, b) => a + b.count, 0));
+</script>
+
+<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+	<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">2 · Growth Loop</h2>
+
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">New players per day</p>
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">First-time players each day. Hover later for post annotations.</p>
+		<MiniLineChart
+			series={[{ name: 'New players', color: '#60a5fa', points: series.map((d) => ({ date: d.date, value: d.newPlayers })) }]}
+			showLegend={false}
+		/>
+	</Container>
+
+	<div class="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Acquisition vs churn (7d)</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				New + resurrected − churned = net. Week-over-week.
+			</p>
+			<BarList
+				signed
+				items={[
+					{ label: 'New', value: payload.activity.newPlayers, color: 'rgba(96,165,250,0.6)' },
+					{ label: 'Resurrected', value: payload.activity.resurrected, color: 'rgba(52,211,153,0.6)' },
+					{ label: 'Churned', value: -payload.activity.churned, color: 'rgba(251,113,133,0.6)' },
+					{ label: 'Net', value: payload.activity.netGrowth, color: 'rgba(167,139,250,0.6)' }
+				]}
+			/>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">Net growth: <span class="font-semibold text-gray-200">{signed(payload.activity.netGrowth)}</span></p>
+		</Container>
+
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Lifecycle funnel</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				Of everyone active in the tracked window, how many reached each play count.
+			</p>
+			<BarList
+				items={payload.growth.lifecycleFunnel.map((f) => ({
+					label: f.label,
+					value: f.players,
+					color: 'rgba(52,211,153,0.5)'
+				}))}
+			/>
+		</Container>
+	</div>
+
+	<div class="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Started → finished</p>
+			{#if hasStarted}
+				<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+					Completion rate {payload.kpis.completionRate ?? '—'}%. Started counts distinct
+					players who loaded the verse.
+				</p>
+				<MiniLineChart
+					series={[
+						{ name: 'Started', color: '#f59e0b', points: series.map((d) => ({ date: d.date, value: d.started })) },
+						{ name: 'Finished', color: '#34d399', points: series.map((d) => ({ date: d.date, value: d.completions })) }
+					]}
+				/>
+			{:else}
+				<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">
+					Needs data. Once players load the game this shows start → finish.
+				</p>
+			{/if}
+		</Container>
+
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Signups</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				Account creations ({numOrDash(signupTotal)} in the last 90 days). Existing accounts show
+				“unknown” date.
+			</p>
+			<MiniLineChart
+				series={[{ name: 'Signups', color: '#a78bfa', points: payload.growth.signups.map((s) => ({ date: s.date, value: s.count })) }]}
+				showLegend={false}
+			/>
+		</Container>
+	</div>
+</section>

src/lib/components/stats/HabitLab.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import MiniLineChart from '$lib/components/charts/MiniLineChart.svelte';
+	import BarList from '$lib/components/charts/BarList.svelte';
+	import CalendarHeatmap from '$lib/components/charts/CalendarHeatmap.svelte';
+	import HeatmapGrid from '$lib/components/charts/HeatmapGrid.svelte';
+	import type { SnapshotPayload } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+	interface Props {
+		payload: SnapshotPayload;
+	}
+	let { payload }: Props = $props();
+
+	const dayLabels = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
+	const hourLabels = Array.from({ length: 24 }, (_, h) => (h % 3 === 0 ? String(h) : ''));
+</script>
+
+<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+	<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">5 · Habit Lab</h2>
+
+	<div class="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Streak survival</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				If you've played N days in a row, how likely are you to play day N+1.
+			</p>
+			<MiniLineChart
+				series={[
+					{
+						name: 'Survival',
+						color: '#34d399',
+						points: payload.habit.streakSurvival.map((s) => ({ date: String(s.length), value: s.probability }))
+					}
+				]}
+				showLegend={false}
+				ySuffix="%"
+			/>
+		</Container>
+
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Current streak lengths</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">Players whose current run has reached each length.</p>
+			<BarList
+				items={payload.habit.streakLengths.map((b) => ({ label: `${b.label} days`, value: b.value, color: 'rgba(251,191,36,0.5)' }))}
+			/>
+		</Container>
+	</div>
+
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Daily finishes (last 120 days)</p>
+		<CalendarHeatmap data={payload.habit.calendar} />
+	</Container>
+
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">When people play</p>
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+			Finishes by weekday and hour. Times are server time (UTC) and therefore approximate.
+		</p>
+		<HeatmapGrid
+			rowLabels={dayLabels}
+			colLabels={hourLabels}
+			values={payload.habit.weekdayHour}
+			color="96,165,250"
+			cellSize={16}
+			format={(v) => String(v)}
+		/>
+	</Container>
+</section>

src/lib/components/stats/KpiCard.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import Sparkline from '$lib/components/charts/Sparkline.svelte';
+	import type { SignalSeverity } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+	interface Props {
+		label: string;
+		value: string;
+		caption?: string;
+		delta?: string;
+		deltaDirection?: 'up' | 'down' | 'flat';
+		sparkValues?: number[];
+		severity?: SignalSeverity;
+	}
+	let {
+		label,
+		value,
+		caption,
+		delta,
+		deltaDirection = 'flat',
+		sparkValues = [],
+		severity
+	}: Props = $props();
+
+	const deltaClass = $derived(
+		deltaDirection === 'up'
+			? 'text-emerald-400'
+			: deltaDirection === 'down'
+				? 'text-rose-400'
+				: 'text-gray-400'
+	);
+	const strokeColor = $derived(
+		severity === 'bad'
+			? '#fb7185'
+			: severity === 'warn'
+				? '#fbbf24'
+				: '#34d399'
+	);
+</script>
+
+<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+	<div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-2 w-full">
+		<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">
+			{label}
+		</p>
+		{#if delta}
+			<span class="text-xs font-semibold {deltaClass}">{delta}</span>
+		{/if}
+	</div>
+	<p class="mt-1 text-2xl font-bold text-gray-100">{value}</p>
+	{#if sparkValues.length > 1}
+		<Sparkline
+			values={sparkValues}
+			stroke={strokeColor}
+			class="mt-2 w-full h-8 text-gray-500"
+		/>
+	{/if}
+	{#if caption}
+		<p class="mt-1 text-xs leading-snug text-gray-400">{caption}</p>
+	{/if}
+</Container>

src/lib/components/stats/Pulse.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import KpiCard from './KpiCard.svelte';
+	import StatusPill from '$lib/components/charts/StatusPill.svelte';
+	import type { Signal, SnapshotPayload, StatsSettings } from '$lib/types/stats';
+	import {
+		delta,
+		numOrDash,
+		pctOrDash,
+		signed
+	} from '$lib/utils/stats-format';
+
+	interface Props {
+		payload: SnapshotPayload;
+		settings: StatsSettings;
+		verdict: string;
+		topSignal: Signal | null;
+	}
+	let { payload, settings, verdict, topSignal }: Props = $props();
+
+	const series = $derived(payload.dailySeries.slice(-30));
+	const spark = $derived(series.map((d) => d.completions));
+	const newSpark = $derived(series.map((d) => d.newPlayers));
+
+	const d1Severity = $derived(
+		payload.kpis.d1Return === null
+			? 'info'
+			: payload.kpis.d1Return >= settings.d1_target
+				? 'good'
+				: payload.kpis.d1Return < 12
+					? 'bad'
+					: 'warn'
+	);
+</script>
+
+<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+	<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
+		<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">1 · Pulse</h2>
+		{#if topSignal}
+			<StatusPill severity={topSignal.severity}>{topSignal.title}</StatusPill>
+		{/if}
+	</div>
+
+	<div
+		class="rounded-2xl border border-white/10 bg-white/5 p-3 text-sm text-gray-200"
+	>
+		{verdict}
+	</div>
+
+	<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3 lg:grid-cols-4">
+		<KpiCard
+			label="Players today"
+			value={numOrDash(payload.activity.dau)}
+			delta={delta(payload.activity.dau, payload.activity.previous?.dau).text}
+			deltaDirection={delta(payload.activity.dau, payload.activity.previous?.dau).direction}
+			sparkValues={spark}
+			caption="Finished yesterday's verse."
+		/>
+		<KpiCard
+			label="Players this week"
+			value={numOrDash(payload.activity.wau)}
+			delta={delta(payload.activity.wau, payload.activity.previous?.wau).text}
+			deltaDirection={delta(payload.activity.wau, payload.activity.previous?.wau).direction}
+			caption="Distinct players in the last 7 days."
+		/>
+		<KpiCard
+			label="Players this month"
+			value={numOrDash(payload.activity.mau)}
+			delta={delta(payload.activity.mau, payload.activity.previous?.mau).text}
+			deltaDirection={delta(payload.activity.mau, payload.activity.previous?.mau).direction}
+			caption="Distinct players in the last 30 days."
+		/>
+		<KpiCard
+			label="Core players"
+			value={numOrDash(payload.activity.core)}
+			delta={delta(payload.activity.core, payload.activity.corePrevious).text}
+			deltaDirection={delta(payload.activity.core, payload.activity.corePrevious).direction}
+			caption={`Finished ${settings.core_plays_per_week}+ times this week.`}
+		/>
+		<KpiCard
+			label="New players"
+			value={numOrDash(payload.activity.newPlayers)}
+			sparkValues={newSpark}
+			caption="First-time players in the last 7 days."
+		/>
+		<KpiCard
+			label="Returning share"
+			value={pctOrDash(payload.activity.returningShare)}
+			caption="Of yesterday's players, how many had played before."
+		/>
+		<KpiCard
+			label="D1 return"
+			value={pctOrDash(payload.kpis.d1Return)}
+			severity={d1Severity}
+			delta={`target ${settings.d1_target}%`}
+			caption="First-timers who came back the next day."
+		/>
+		<KpiCard
+			label="Net growth (7d)"
+			value={signed(payload.activity.netGrowth)}
+			caption={`New + returning − churned (${payload.activity.newPlayers} + ${payload.activity.resurrected} − ${payload.activity.churned}).`}
+		/>
+	</div>
+</section>

src/lib/components/stats/RetentionLab.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import CohortHeatmap from '$lib/components/charts/CohortHeatmap.svelte';
+	import MiniLineChart from '$lib/components/charts/MiniLineChart.svelte';
+	import BarList from '$lib/components/charts/BarList.svelte';
+	import type { SnapshotPayload, StatsSettings } from '$lib/types/stats';
+	import { pctOrDash, numOrDash } from '$lib/utils/stats-format';
+
+	interface Props {
+		payload: SnapshotPayload;
+		settings: StatsSettings;
+	}
+	let { payload, settings }: Props = $props();
+
+	const mix = $derived(payload.retention.segmentMix);
+	const colors = ['#60a5fa', '#34d399', '#a78bfa', '#f59e0b', '#fb7185'];
+</script>
+
+<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+	<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">3 · Retention Lab</h2>
+
+	<div class="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+			<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">
+				Overall return rate
+			</p>
+			<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-100">
+				{pctOrDash(payload.kpis.overallReturnRate)}
+			</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				Share of all players who ever played more than once. Target:
+				{settings.return7_target}%+ within 7 days.
+			</p>
+		</Container>
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+			<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">
+				Time to second play
+			</p>
+			<BarList items={payload.retention.timeToSecondPlay.map((b) => ({ label: b.label, value: b.value }))} />
+		</Container>
+	</div>
+
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Cohort retention triangle</p>
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+			Each row is a starting week; each column is weeks later. Darker = more came back.
+			Only resolved weeks are filled.
+		</p>
+		<CohortHeatmap cohorts={payload.retention.cohorts} weeks={8} />
+	</Container>
+
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Retention curves</p>
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+			D1 / D7 / D30 return over time. Latest resolvable cohorts only.
+		</p>
+		<MiniLineChart
+			series={[
+				{ name: 'D1', color: '#34d399', points: payload.retention.curves.d1 },
+				{ name: 'D7', color: '#60a5fa', points: payload.retention.curves.d7 },
+				{ name: 'D30', color: '#a78bfa', points: payload.retention.curves.d30 }
+			]}
+			ySuffix="%"
+		/>
+	</Container>
+
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Segment mix over time</p>
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+			Active players split into new, core, returning, at-risk and churned. Total tracked:
+			{numOrDash(payload.activity.mau)} recently active.
+		</p>
+		<MiniLineChart
+			series={[
+				{ name: 'New', color: colors[0], points: mix.map((m) => ({ date: m.date, value: m.new })) },
+				{ name: 'Core', color: colors[1], points: mix.map((m) => ({ date: m.date, value: m.core })) },
+				{ name: 'Returning', color: colors[2], points: mix.map((m) => ({ date: m.date, value: m.returning })) },
+				{ name: 'At risk', color: colors[3], points: mix.map((m) => ({ date: m.date, value: m.atRisk })) },
+				{ name: 'Churned', color: colors[4], points: mix.map((m) => ({ date: m.date, value: m.churned })) }
+			]}
+		/>
+	</Container>
+</section>

src/lib/components/stats/SettingsMenu.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import { SETTINGS_DEFAULTS, type SettingsKey, type StatsSettings } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+	interface Props {
+		settings: StatsSettings;
+		stale?: boolean;
+	}
+	let { settings, stale = false }: Props = $props();
+
+	const FIELDS: { key: SettingsKey; label: string; hint: string; suffix?: string }[] = [
+		{ key: 'core_plays_per_week', label: 'Core player threshold', hint: 'Finishes in 7 days to count as core.' },
+		{ key: 'at_risk_days', label: 'At-risk after (days)', hint: 'Days inactive before a player is at risk.' },
+		{ key: 'churn_days', label: 'Churned after (days)', hint: 'Days inactive before a player is churned.' },
+		{ key: 'resurrect_gap_days', label: 'Resurrection gap (days)', hint: 'Gap that makes a return "resurrected".' },
+		{ key: 'active_window_days', label: 'Player-state window (days)', hint: 'How much player history is stored.' },
+		{ key: 'd1_target', label: 'D1 return target', hint: 'Target for next-day return.', suffix: '%' },
+		{ key: 'return7_target', label: '7-day return target', hint: 'Target for any return within 7 days.', suffix: '%' },
+		{ key: 'completion_target', label: 'Completion target', hint: 'Started → finished target.', suffix: '%' },
+		{ key: 'first_try_min', label: 'First-try band (min)', hint: 'Below this is too hard.', suffix: '%' },
+		{ key: 'first_try_max', label: 'First-try band (max)', hint: 'Above this is too easy.', suffix: '%' },
+		{ key: 'share_target', label: 'Share target', hint: 'Shares ÷ finishes target.', suffix: '%' },
+		{ key: 'anomaly_mad_threshold', label: 'Anomaly sensitivity', hint: 'Lower = more alerts.' }
+	];
+</script>
+
+<details class="group">
+	<summary
+		class="cursor-pointer list-none rounded-xl border border-white/10 bg-white/5 px-4 py-2 text-sm font-semibold text-gray-200 hover:bg-white/10"
+	>
+		⚙️ Settings &amp; thresholds
+		{#if stale}
+			<span class="ml-2 text-xs font-normal text-amber-300"
+				>(snapshot definitions are outdated)</span
+			>
+		{/if}
+	</summary>
+	<Container class="mt-3 p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-3">
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+			Changing these re-reads history; snapshots themselves are unchanged.
+		</p>
+		<form method="POST" action="?/updateSettings" class="grid gap-3 sm:grid-cols-2">
+			{#each FIELDS as field (field.key)}
+				<label class="flex flex-col gap-1 text-xs text-gray-300">
+					<span class="font-semibold">{field.label}{field.suffix ? ` (${field.suffix})` : ''}</span>
+					<input
+						type="number"
+						name={field.key}
+						value={settings[field.key]}
+						step="any"
+						min={field.key === 'anomaly_mad_threshold' ? 0.5 : 0}
+						class="rounded-lg border border-white/10 bg-black/30 px-2 py-1.5 text-sm text-gray-100 focus:border-blue-400 focus:outline-none"
+					/>
+					<span class="text-[11px] text-gray-500">{field.hint}</span>
+				</label>
+			{/each}
+			<div class="flex items-center gap-2 sm:col-span-2">
+				<button
+					type="submit"
+					class="rounded-lg bg-blue-600 px-4 py-2 text-sm font-semibold text-white hover:bg-blue-500"
+				>
+					Save settings
+				</button>
+				<span class="text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+					Defaults come from <code>SETTINGS_DEFAULTS</code> / <code>STATS_*</code> env vars.
+				</span>
+			</div>
+		</form>
+	</Container>
+</details>

src/lib/components/stats/SignalsFeed.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import StatusPill from '$lib/components/charts/StatusPill.svelte';
+	import type { Signal } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+	interface Props {
+		signals: Signal[];
+	}
+	let { signals }: Props = $props();
+
+	const labels: Record<Signal['severity'], string> = {
+		good: 'On target',
+		info: 'Needs data',
+		warn: 'Watch',
+		bad: 'Act now'
+	};
+</script>
+
+<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+	<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">6 · Signals &amp; Actions</h2>
+	{#if signals.length === 0}
+		<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">No signals for this date.</p>
+	{:else}
+		<div class="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
+			{#each signals as signal (signal.id)}
+				<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left gap-2">
+					<div class="flex items-center justify-between gap-2 w-full">
+						<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">{signal.title}</p>
+						<StatusPill severity={signal.severity} label={labels[signal.severity]} />
+					</div>
+					<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">{signal.detail}</p>
+					{#if signal.action}
+						<p class="text-xs text-amber-200/90">
+							<span class="font-semibold">What to do:</span> {signal.action}
+						</p>
+					{/if}
+				</Container>
+			{/each}
+		</div>
+	{/if}
+</section>

src/lib/components/stats/VerseMixLab.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,172 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import MiniLineChart from '$lib/components/charts/MiniLineChart.svelte';
+	import BarList from '$lib/components/charts/BarList.svelte';
+	import BookCoverage from '$lib/components/stats/BookCoverage.svelte';
+	import type { SnapshotPayload } from '$lib/types/stats';
+	import { bibleBooks } from '$lib/types/bible';
+
+	interface Props {
+		payload: SnapshotPayload;
+	}
+	let { payload }: Props = $props();
+
+	const nameOf = (id: string) => bibleBooks.find((b) => b.id === id)?.name ?? id;
+	const coverage = $derived(payload.verseMix.coverage);
+
+	const retained = $derived(payload.verseMix.retentionByBook);
+	const avgD1 = $derived(
+		retained.length ? retained.reduce((a, b) => a + (b.d1Return ?? 0), 0) / retained.length : 0
+	);
+	const giveaways = $derived(
+		payload.verseMix.firstTryByBook
+			.filter((b) => b.firstTryPct >= 50 && b.plays >= 3)
+			.sort((a, b) => b.firstTryPct - a.firstTryPct)
+			.slice(0, 8)
+	);
+	const alarms = $derived(
+		retained
+			.filter((b) => b.plays >= 5 && (b.d1Return ?? 100) < avgD1 - 5)
+			.sort((a, b) => (a.d1Return ?? 0) - (b.d1Return ?? 0))
+			.slice(0, 8)
+	);
+
+	function bar(pct: number | null, color = 'rgba(52,211,153,0.6)'): string {
+		const w = pct === null ? 0 : Math.min(100, pct);
+		return `width:${w}%;background:${color}`;
+	}
+</script>
+
+<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+	<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">4 · Verse Mix Lab</h2>
+
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">66-book coverage (180 days)</p>
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+			How often each book was the answer, grouped by canonical section. Red = rarely featured,
+			green = a staple. Aim for breadth, not repetition.
+		</p>
+		<BookCoverage {coverage} />
+	</Container>
+
+	<div class="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Testament balance &amp; variety</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				Weekly Old vs New Testament count, plus book-distribution entropy (higher = more variety).
+			</p>
+			<MiniLineChart
+				series={[
+					{ name: 'Old', color: '#f59e0b', points: payload.verseMix.testamentMix.map((t) => ({ date: t.date, value: t.old })) },
+					{ name: 'New', color: '#60a5fa', points: payload.verseMix.testamentMix.map((t) => ({ date: t.date, value: t.new })) }
+				]}
+			/>
+			<MiniLineChart
+				series={[{ name: 'Entropy (bits)', color: '#a78bfa', points: payload.verseMix.entropy }]}
+				showLegend={false}
+				height={120}
+			/>
+		</Container>
+
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Freshness</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				How long between repeats of the same book. More short gaps = repetitive mix.
+			</p>
+			<BarList
+				items={payload.verseMix.repeatIntervals.map((b) => ({ label: b.label, value: b.value, color: 'rgba(244,114,182,0.5)' }))}
+			/>
+			<p class="pt-2 text-xs text-gray-400">Achievability (last 30 days)</p>
+			<BarList
+				items={payload.verseMix.achievability.map((b) => ({ label: `${b.label} guess${b.label === '1' ? '' : 'es'}`, value: b.value, color: 'rgba(96,165,250,0.5)' }))}
+			/>
+		</Container>
+	</div>
+
+	<div class="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Retention by difficulty</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				Next-day return after solving in each guess bucket. Do hard days make people leave?
+			</p>
+			<table class="w-full text-left text-xs text-gray-300">
+				<thead class="text-gray-500">
+					<tr><th class="py-1">Guesses</th><th>Plays</th><th>D1 return</th></tr>
+				</thead>
+				<tbody>
+					{#each payload.verseMix.retentionByGuessBucket as row (row.bucket)}
+						<tr>
+							<td class="py-1">{row.bucket}</td>
+							<td>{row.plays}</td>
+							<td>
+								<div class="flex items-center gap-2">
+									<div class="h-2 w-24 overflow-hidden rounded bg-white/5">
+										<div class="h-full rounded" style={bar(row.d1)}></div>
+									</div>
+									<span>{row.d1 === null ? '—' : `${row.d1}%`}</span>
+								</div>
+							</td>
+						</tr>
+					{/each}
+				</tbody>
+			</table>
+		</Container>
+
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+			<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Retention by book</p>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+				Books whose day had below-average next-day return (min 5 plays). Candidate retirements.
+			</p>
+			{#if alarms.length === 0}
+				<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">No clear churn outliers.</p>
+			{:else}
+				<table class="w-full text-left text-xs text-gray-300">
+					<thead class="text-gray-500">
+						<tr><th class="py-1">Book</th><th>Plays</th><th>D1</th><th>First-try</th></tr>
+					</thead>
+					<tbody>
+						{#each alarms as b (b.bookId)}
+							<tr>
+								<td class="py-1">{nameOf(b.bookId)}</td>
+								<td>{b.plays}</td>
+								<td>{b.d1Return === null ? '—' : `${b.d1Return}%`}</td>
+								<td>{b.firstTryPct}%</td>
+							</tr>
+						{/each}
+					</tbody>
+				</table>
+			{/if}
+		</Container>
+	</div>
+
+	<Container class="p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-100">Giveaway detector</p>
+		<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">
+			Books solved first try more than half the time (min 3 plays). Likely self-revealing text —
+			down-weight in the curated mix.
+		</p>
+		{#if giveaways.length === 0}
+			<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">No giveaway outliers.</p>
+		{:else}
+			<table class="w-full text-left text-xs text-gray-300">
+				<thead class="text-gray-500">
+					<tr><th class="py-1">Book</th><th>Plays</th><th>First-try</th><th>Avg guesses</th></tr>
+				</thead>
+				<tbody>
+					{#each giveaways as b (b.bookId)}
+						<tr>
+							<td class="py-1">{nameOf(b.bookId)}</td>
+							<td>{b.plays}</td>
+							<td>{b.firstTryPct}%</td>
+							<td>{b.avgGuesses}</td>
+						</tr>
+					{/each}
+				</tbody>
+			</table>
+		{/if}
+	</Container>
+
+	<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">
+		Before/after the curated mix system will appear here once enough pre/post data exists.
+	</p>
+</section>

src/lib/server/admin.ts

@@ -3,6 +3,14 @@
 // identity; this email is the sole exception (see spec "Admin /scheduled-verses").
 export const ADMIN_EMAIL = 'geohpowell@gmail.com';
 
+// Local-only escape hatch: set `DEV_ADMIN_ALL=true` in `.env` to treat every
+// visitor as an admin so the private console can be tested on a dev machine.
+// Explicitly disabled when NODE_ENV=production, so it can never apply to a
+// deployed build even if the variable leaks.
+export const DEV_ADMIN_ALL =
+	Bun.env.DEV_ADMIN_ALL === 'true' && Bun.env.NODE_ENV !== 'production';
+
 export function isAdmin(email: string | null | undefined): boolean {
+	if (DEV_ADMIN_ALL) return true;
 	return !!email && email.toLowerCase() === ADMIN_EMAIL;
 }

src/lib/server/auth.test.ts

@@ -102,7 +102,8 @@ export async function createUser(anonymousId: string, email: string, passwordHas
 		googleId: null,
 		firstName: firstName || null,
 		lastName: lastName || null,
-		isPrivate: false
+		isPrivate: false,
+		createdAt: new Date()
 	};
 	await db.insert(table.user).values(user);
 	return user;

src/lib/server/auth.ts

@@ -102,7 +102,8 @@ export async function createUser(anonymousId: string, email: string, passwordHas
 		googleId: null,
 		firstName: firstName || null,
 		lastName: lastName || null,
-		isPrivate: false
+		isPrivate: false,
+		createdAt: new Date()
 	};
 	await db.insert(table.user).values(user);
 	return user;

src/lib/server/db/schema.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
-import { integer, sqliteTable, text, index, unique } from 'drizzle-orm/sqlite-core';
+import { integer, sqliteTable, text, index, unique, uniqueIndex } from 'drizzle-orm/sqlite-core';
+import { sql } from 'drizzle-orm';
 
 export const user = sqliteTable('user', {
 	id: text('id').primaryKey(),
@@ -8,7 +9,10 @@ export const user = sqliteTable('user', {
 	passwordHash: text('password_hash'),
 	appleId: text('apple_id').unique(),
 	googleId: text('google_id').unique(),
-	isPrivate: integer('is_private', { mode: 'boolean' }).default(false)
+	isPrivate: integer('is_private', { mode: 'boolean' }).default(false),
+	// Additive: existing rows stay NULL ("unknown signup date"). New rows get a
+	// timestamp automatically via the client-side default function.
+	createdAt: integer('created_at', { mode: 'timestamp' }).$defaultFn(() => new Date())
 });
 
 export const session = sqliteTable('session', {
@@ -65,3 +69,55 @@ export const verseSubmissions = sqliteTable('verse_submissions', {
 ]);
 
 export type VerseSubmission = typeof verseSubmissions.$inferSelect;
+
+// ── Statistics dashboard (see statistics-plan.md) ────────────────────────────
+// One immutable row per "as of" day. Payload/config/playerState are JSON text.
+export const statsSnapshot = sqliteTable('stats_snapshot', {
+	// as-of date, YYYY-MM-DD
+	date: text('date').primaryKey(),
+	// build time (server timestamp)
+	generatedAt: integer('generated_at', { mode: 'timestamp' }).notNull(),
+	// scheduled | lazy | reconstructed
+	buildKind: text('build_kind').notNull(),
+	// stable hash of the settings used at build time
+	configVersion: text('config_version').notNull(),
+	// all aggregate series / lab data
+	payload: text('payload').notNull(),
+	// compact per-player state for render-time segmentation (JSON)
+	playerState: text('player_state'),
+	// copy of the resolved settings used at build time (JSON)
+	config: text('config').notNull()
+});
+
+export type StatsSnapshot = typeof statsSnapshot.$inferSelect;
+
+// Generic, extensible event log. Unlocks instrumentation B/D/E/F now; C later.
+export const analyticsEvents = sqliteTable('analytics_events', {
+	id: text('id').primaryKey(),
+	name: text('name').notNull(),
+	anonymousId: text('anonymous_id'),
+	// Nullable so ON DELETE SET NULL keeps historical events when a user is deleted.
+	userId: text('user_id').references(() => user.id, { onDelete: 'set null' }),
+	date: text('date'),
+	createdAt: integer('created_at', { mode: 'timestamp' }).notNull(),
+	metadata: text('metadata')
+}, (table) => [
+	index('analytics_events_name_date_idx').on(table.name, table.date),
+	index('analytics_events_anonymous_id_date_idx').on(table.anonymousId, table.date),
+	// Dedupe verse_served per player per day (reloads), without collapsing
+	// legitimate repeat events like multiple shares in a day.
+	uniqueIndex('analytics_events_serve_unique')
+		.on(table.name, table.anonymousId, table.date)
+		.where(sql`${table.name} = 'verse_served'`)
+]);
+
+export type AnalyticsEvent = typeof analyticsEvents.$inferSelect;
+
+// Simple key/value store for dashboard thresholds (env vars provide defaults).
+export const dashboardSettings = sqliteTable('dashboard_settings', {
+	key: text('key').primaryKey(),
+	value: text('value').notNull(),
+	updatedAt: integer('updated_at', { mode: 'timestamp' }).notNull()
+});
+
+export type DashboardSetting = typeof dashboardSettings.$inferSelect;

src/lib/server/rss.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,165 @@
+import type { DailyVerse } from '$lib/server/db/schema';
+
+/**
+ * The feed presents calendar days, so every timestamp is anchored to midnight
+ * in this reference timezone. Using a fixed zone (rather than the server's
+ * local timezone) keeps output stable across UTC dev machines and NY hosts.
+ */
+export const FEED_TIMEZONE = 'America/New_York';
+
+/** Number of most-recent verses exposed in the feed. */
+export const FEED_ITEM_LIMIT = 30;
+
+/** Escape the five XML predefined entities. */
+export function escapeXml(text: string): string {
+	return text
+		.replace(/&/g, '&')
+		.replace(/</g, '&lt;')
+		.replace(/>/g, '&gt;')
+		.replace(/"/g, '&quot;')
+		.replace(/'/g, '&apos;');
+}
+
+/**
+ * The current calendar date (`YYYY-MM-DD`) in the feed's reference timezone.
+ * Used to cap the feed so future/scheduled verses are never published early.
+ */
+export function todayInTimeZone(timeZone: string = FEED_TIMEZONE, now: Date = new Date()): string {
+	const parts = new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-US', {
+		timeZone,
+		year: 'numeric',
+		month: '2-digit',
+		day: '2-digit'
+	}).formatToParts(now);
+	const get = (type: string) => parts.find((part) => part.type === type)?.value ?? '';
+	return `${get('year')}-${get('month')}-${get('day')}`;
+}
+
+/**
+ * The UTC offset in effect on a given `YYYY-MM-DD` for a timezone, formatted
+ * as `±HH:MM` (e.g. `-04:00` during EDT, `-05:00` during EST).
+ */
+export function timeZoneOffset(dateStr: string, timeZone: string = FEED_TIMEZONE): string {
+	const [year, month, day] = dateStr.split('-').map(Number);
+	// Noon UTC is safely inside the calendar day in any US offset, so DST is
+	// resolved correctly regardless of the time of day.
+	const reference = new Date(Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day, 12));
+	const name = new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-US', {
+		timeZone,
+		timeZoneName: 'longOffset'
+	})
+		.formatToParts(reference)
+		.find((part) => part.type === 'timeZoneName')?.value;
+
+	const offset = (name ?? 'GMT+00:00').replace('GMT', '');
+	return offset === '' ? '+00:00' : offset;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Format a `YYYY-MM-DD` day as an RFC 822 / RFC 2822 timestamp at midnight in
+ * the feed's reference timezone. Always emits a valid numeric/GMT timestamp
+ * (never a bare, ambiguous abbreviation like `EST`).
+ */
+export function formatRFC822(dateStr: string, timeZone: string = FEED_TIMEZONE): string {
+	const offset = timeZoneOffset(dateStr, timeZone);
+	return new Date(`${dateStr}T00:00:00${offset}`).toUTCString();
+}
+
+/** Human-readable date that does not shift with the server's local timezone. */
+export function formatReadableDate(dateStr: string): string {
+	const [year, month, day] = dateStr.split('-').map(Number);
+	return new Date(Date.UTC(year, month - 1, day)).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {
+		month: 'long',
+		day: 'numeric',
+		year: 'numeric',
+		timeZone: 'UTC'
+	});
+}
+
+/** Wrap text in a CDATA section, splitting any embedded `]]>` safely. */
+export function cdata(text: string): string {
+	return `<![CDATA[${text.replace(/]]>/g, ']]]]><![CDATA[>')}]]>`;
+}
+
+// Helper: Format verse text (VerseDisplay + Imposter unbalanced punctuation handling)
+export function formatVerseText(text: string): string {
+	let formatted = text;
+
+	// Handle unbalanced opening/closing punctuation (from Imposter.svelte)
+	const pairs: [string, string][] = [
+		['(', ')'],
+		['[', ']'],
+		['{', '}'],
+		['"', '"'],
+		["'", "'"],
+		['\u201C', '\u201D'], // " "
+		['\u2018', '\u2019'] // ' '
+	];
+
+	// Check if text starts with opening punctuation without closing
+	for (const [open, close] of pairs) {
+		if (formatted.startsWith(open) && !formatted.includes(close)) {
+			formatted += '...' + close;
+			break;
+		}
+	}
+
+	// Check if text ends with closing punctuation without opening
+	for (const [open, close] of pairs) {
+		if (formatted.endsWith(close) && !formatted.includes(open)) {
+			formatted = open + '...' + formatted;
+			break;
+		}
+	}
+
+	// Check if text contains unbalanced opening quotes (not at start) without closing
+	for (const [open, close] of pairs) {
+		const openCount = (formatted.match(new RegExp(`\\${open}`, 'g')) || []).length;
+		const closeCount = (formatted.match(new RegExp(`\\${close}`, 'g')) || []).length;
+		if (openCount > closeCount) {
+			formatted += close;
+			break;
+		}
+	}
+
+	// Capitalize first letter if lowercase (from VerseDisplay.svelte)
+	formatted = formatted.replace(/^([a-z])/, (c) => c.toUpperCase());
+
+	// Replace trailing punctuation with ellipsis
+	// Preserve closing quotes/brackets that may have been added
+	formatted = formatted.replace(/[,:;-—]([)\]}\"\'\u201D\u2019]*)$/, '...$1');
+
+	return formatted;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Content fingerprint used as a strong ETag. Any change to the included rows
+ * (new day, edited verse text, changed reference) produces a new hash, so
+ * cached clients revalidate correctly.
+ */
+export function feedFingerprint(
+	verses: Pick<DailyVerse, 'date' | 'reference' | 'verseText'>[]
+): string {
+	let hash = 5381;
+	for (const verse of verses) {
+		const row = `${verse.date}\u0000${verse.reference}\u0000${verse.verseText}`;
+		for (let i = 0; i < row.length; i++) {
+			hash = ((hash << 5) + hash + row.charCodeAt(i)) | 0;
+		}
+	}
+	return (hash >>> 0).toString(16);
+}
+
+/**
+ * The most recent `createdAt` across the given rows, used for `Last-Modified`.
+ * Falls back to `fallback` when no row carries a timestamp.
+ */
+export function latestModification(
+	verses: Pick<DailyVerse, 'createdAt'>[],
+	fallback: Date
+): Date {
+	return verses.reduce<Date | null>((latest, verse) => {
+		if (!verse.createdAt) return latest;
+		return !latest || verse.createdAt > latest ? verse.createdAt : latest;
+	}, null) ?? fallback;
+}

src/lib/server/stats/dates.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+/** Pure UTC date arithmetic on `YYYY-MM-DD` strings. No DB, no Svelte. */
+
+const DAY_MS = 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24;
+
+export function addDays(dateStr: string, n: number): string {
+	const d = new Date(dateStr + 'T00:00:00Z');
+	d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate() + n);
+	return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+}
+
+/** Whole-day difference `b - a`. */
+export function dayDiff(a: string, b: string): number {
+	return Math.round(
+		(new Date(b + 'T00:00:00Z').getTime() - new Date(a + 'T00:00:00Z').getTime()) / DAY_MS
+	);
+}
+
+/** The Sunday on or before `dateStr` (week cohorts are Sunday-aligned). */
+export function startOfWeek(dateStr: string): string {
+	const day = new Date(dateStr + 'T00:00:00Z').getUTCDay(); // 0 = Sunday
+	return addDays(dateStr, -day);
+}
+
+/** All dates from `start` to `end` inclusive. */
+export function dateRange(start: string, end: string): string[] {
+	const out: string[] = [];
+	for (let d = start; d <= end; d = addDays(d, 1)) out.push(d);
+	return out;
+}
+
+export function todayUtc(): string {
+	return new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+}
+
+export function isValidDate(dateStr: string): boolean {
+	return /^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(dateStr) && !Number.isNaN(new Date(dateStr + 'T00:00:00Z').getTime());
+}

src/lib/server/stats/db.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+import { db } from '$lib/server/db';
+
+/** The Drizzle database type (production db or a test db). */
+export type StatsDb = typeof db;

src/lib/server/stats/digest.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+import type { SnapshotPayload } from '$lib/types/stats';
+import { sortSignals } from './signals';
+
+/** Compose the ~6-line plain-language daily digest. Pure / testable. */
+export function composeDigest(payload: SnapshotPayload): string {
+	const { activity, kpis } = payload;
+	const top = sortSignals(payload.signals)[0];
+	const lines = [
+		`**Bibdle stats — ${payload.asOfDate}**`,
+		`Players: ${activity.dau} today · ${activity.wau} this week · ${activity.mau} this month`,
+		`New ${activity.newPlayers} · returning ${activity.returningShare ?? '—'}% · net ${activity.netGrowth >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${activity.netGrowth}`,
+		`D1 return ${kpis.d1Return ?? '—'}% · 7-day ${kpis.return7 ?? '—'}%`,
+		top ? `Top signal: ${top.title} — ${top.detail}` : 'No signals.',
+		`https://bibdle.com/admin/stats?date=${payload.asOfDate}`
+	];
+	return lines.join('\n');
+}
+
+/**
+ * POST the digest to the admin Discord webhook. No-op (with a log) when the
+ * webhook is unset; never throws so a digest failure can't fail the build.
+ */
+export async function sendDigest(
+	payload: SnapshotPayload,
+	webhookUrl: string | undefined = Bun.env.DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK
+): Promise<boolean> {
+	const message = composeDigest(payload);
+	if (!webhookUrl) {
+		console.log('[stats] DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK not set; digest skipped:\n' + message);
+		return false;
+	}
+	try {
+		const res = await fetch(webhookUrl, {
+			method: 'POST',
+			headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+			body: JSON.stringify({ content: message })
+		});
+		if (!res.ok) console.error('[stats] digest webhook responded', res.status);
+		return res.ok;
+	} catch (err) {
+		console.error('[stats] digest failed', err);
+		return false;
+	}
+}

src/lib/server/stats/events.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+import { db as defaultDb } from '$lib/server/db';
+import { analyticsEvents } from '$lib/server/db/schema';
+import { EVENT_NAMES, MAX_METADATA_BYTES, type EventName } from '$lib/types/stats';
+import type { StatsDb } from './db';
+
+export interface RecordEventInput {
+	name: string;
+	anonymousId?: string | null;
+	userId?: string | null;
+	date?: string | null;
+	metadata?: Record<string, unknown> | null;
+}
+
+export function isEventName(name: string): name is EventName {
+	return (EVENT_NAMES as readonly string[]).includes(name);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Safely serialize metadata, capping it at `MAX_METADATA_BYTES`. Oversized
+ * payloads are replaced with a marker rather than truncated into invalid JSON.
+ */
+export function encodeMetadata(metadata: Record<string, unknown> | null | undefined): string | null {
+	if (metadata == null) return null;
+	let json: string | undefined;
+	try {
+		json = JSON.stringify(metadata);
+	} catch {
+		return null;
+	}
+	if (json === undefined) return null;
+	if (Buffer.byteLength(json) > MAX_METADATA_BYTES) {
+		return JSON.stringify({ truncated: true });
+	}
+	return json;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Insert one analytics event.
+ *
+ * Always uses `ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING`: the only unique constraint is the
+ * partial `verse_served` index, so this dedupes reloads for `verse_served`
+ * while other events insert freely.
+ *
+ * Never throws — analytics must not break gameplay. Returns true on insert.
+ */
+export async function recordEvent(
+	input: RecordEventInput,
+	database: StatsDb = defaultDb
+): Promise<boolean> {
+	const { name, anonymousId, userId, date, metadata } = input;
+	try {
+		const inserted = await database
+			.insert(analyticsEvents)
+			.values({
+				id: crypto.randomUUID(),
+				name,
+				anonymousId: anonymousId ?? null,
+				userId: userId ?? null,
+				date: date ?? null,
+				createdAt: new Date(),
+				metadata: encodeMetadata(metadata)
+			})
+			.onConflictDoNothing()
+			.returning({ id: analyticsEvents.id });
+		return inserted.length > 0;
+	} catch (err) {
+		console.error('[stats] failed to record event', name, err);
+		return false;
+	}
+}

src/lib/server/stats/metrics.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,478 @@
+import type {
+	BookStat,
+	CohortRow,
+	CompletionRow,
+	HistogramBin,
+	VerseRow
+} from '$lib/types/stats';
+import { bibleBooks } from '$lib/types/bible';
+import { addDays, dateRange, dayDiff, startOfWeek } from './dates';
+
+// ── internal helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** Unique play dates per player, sorted ascending. */
+export function groupDatesByPlayer(completions: CompletionRow[]): Map<string, string[]> {
+	const map = new Map<string, Set<string>>();
+	for (const c of completions) {
+		let set = map.get(c.anonymousId);
+		if (!set) {
+			set = new Set();
+			map.set(c.anonymousId, set);
+		}
+		set.add(c.date);
+	}
+	const out = new Map<string, string[]>();
+	for (const [id, set] of map) out.set(id, [...set].sort());
+	return out;
+}
+
+/** First-ever play date per player. */
+export function firstPlayDates(completions: CompletionRow[]): Map<string, string> {
+	const out = new Map<string, string>();
+	for (const c of completions) {
+		const current = out.get(c.anonymousId);
+		if (current === undefined || c.date < current) out.set(c.anonymousId, c.date);
+	}
+	return out;
+}
+
+function round1(n: number): number {
+	return Math.round(n * 10) / 10;
+}
+
+function pct(part: number, whole: number): number | null {
+	if (whole <= 0) return null;
+	return round1((part / whole) * 100);
+}
+
+// ── activity ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** Distinct players with a completion in `[end - windowDays + 1, end]`. */
+export function activePlayers(
+	completions: CompletionRow[],
+	end: string,
+	windowDays: number
+): number {
+	const start = addDays(end, -(windowDays - 1));
+	const set = new Set<string>();
+	for (const c of completions) {
+		if (c.date >= start && c.date <= end) set.add(c.anonymousId);
+	}
+	return set.size;
+}
+
+export interface NewVsReturning {
+	newPlayers: number;
+	returning: number;
+	returningShare: number | null;
+}
+
+/** Split a single day's players into first-timers and returning players. */
+export function newVsReturning(completions: CompletionRow[], date: string): NewVsReturning {
+	const firsts = firstPlayDates(completions);
+	const players = new Set<string>();
+	for (const c of completions) if (c.date === date) players.add(c.anonymousId);
+	let newPlayers = 0;
+	let returning = 0;
+	for (const id of players) {
+		if (firsts.get(id) === date) newPlayers++;
+		else returning++;
+	}
+	return { newPlayers, returning, returningShare: pct(returning, players.size) };
+}
+
+export interface NetGrowth {
+	newPlayers: number;
+	resurrected: number;
+	churned: number;
+	netGrowth: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Growth accounting over a trailing window:
+ * `new + resurrected - churned`.
+ *
+ * - new: first-ever play inside the window
+ * - resurrected: played in the window after a gap longer than `resurrectGapDays`
+ * - churned: played in the preceding equal window but not in this one
+ */
+export function netGrowth(
+	completions: CompletionRow[],
+	end: string,
+	windowDays: number,
+	resurrectGapDays: number
+): NetGrowth {
+	const windowStart = addDays(end, -(windowDays - 1));
+	const prevStart = addDays(windowStart, -windowDays);
+	const prevEnd = addDays(windowStart, -1);
+
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+
+	let newPlayers = 0;
+	let resurrected = 0;
+	let churned = 0;
+
+	for (const dates of datesByPlayer.values()) {
+		const inWindow = dates.filter((d) => d >= windowStart && d <= end);
+		const inPrev = dates.filter((d) => d >= prevStart && d <= prevEnd);
+
+		if (inWindow.length > 0) {
+			const firstInWindow = inWindow[0];
+			const earlier = dates.filter((d) => d < firstInWindow);
+			if (earlier.length === 0) {
+				if (firstInWindow >= windowStart) newPlayers++;
+			} else {
+				const gap = dayDiff(earlier[earlier.length - 1], firstInWindow);
+				if (gap > resurrectGapDays) resurrected++;
+			}
+		} else if (inPrev.length > 0) {
+			churned++;
+		}
+	}
+
+	return { newPlayers, resurrected, churned, netGrowth: newPlayers + resurrected - churned };
+}
+
+// ── retention ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Fraction of players first seen on `cohortDate` who played again within
+ * `n` days. Returns null for cohorts smaller than `minSize`.
+ */
+export function returnWithin(
+	completions: CompletionRow[],
+	cohortDate: string,
+	n: number,
+	minSize = 1
+): number | null {
+	const firsts = firstPlayDates(completions);
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	const end = addDays(cohortDate, n);
+
+	let cohort = 0;
+	let returned = 0;
+	for (const [id, first] of firsts) {
+		if (first !== cohortDate) continue;
+		cohort++;
+		const dates = datesByPlayer.get(id) ?? [];
+		if (dates.some((d) => d > cohortDate && d <= end)) returned++;
+	}
+	if (cohort < minSize) return null;
+	return pct(returned, cohort);
+}
+
+/** Next-day return rate for a cohort of first-timers. */
+export function d1Return(completions: CompletionRow[], cohortDate: string, minSize = 1): number | null {
+	return returnWithin(completions, cohortDate, 1, minSize);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Weekly cohort triangle. Each row is a cohort (players whose first play fell
+ * in that week) and each column k is the share active k weeks later.
+ */
+export function cohortTriangle(
+	completions: CompletionRow[],
+	opts: { start: string; weeks: number; asOf?: string; minSize?: number }
+): CohortRow[] {
+	const { start, weeks, asOf, minSize = 1 } = opts;
+	const firsts = firstPlayDates(completions);
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	const rows: CohortRow[] = [];
+
+	for (let i = 0; i < weeks; i++) {
+		const weekStart = addDays(start, i * 7);
+		const weekEnd = addDays(weekStart, 6);
+		const members: string[] = [];
+		for (const [id, first] of firsts) {
+			if (first >= weekStart && first <= weekEnd) members.push(id);
+		}
+		const size = members.length;
+		const counts: number[] = [];
+		const rates: (number | null)[] = [];
+		for (let k = 0; k < weeks - i; k++) {
+			const wStart = addDays(weekStart, k * 7);
+			const wEnd = addDays(wStart, 6);
+			if (asOf && wStart > asOf) {
+				counts.push(0);
+				rates.push(null);
+				continue;
+			}
+			let active = 0;
+			for (const id of members) {
+				const dates = datesByPlayer.get(id) ?? [];
+				if (dates.some((d) => d >= wStart && d <= wEnd)) active++;
+			}
+			counts.push(active);
+			rates.push(size < minSize ? null : pct(active, size));
+		}
+		rows.push({ weekStart, size, counts, rates });
+	}
+	return rows;
+}
+
+/** Days until a first-timer's second play, bucketed. */
+export function timeToSecondPlayHistogram(completions: CompletionRow[]): HistogramBin[] {
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	const gaps: number[] = [];
+	for (const dates of datesByPlayer.values()) {
+		if (dates.length < 2) continue;
+		gaps.push(dayDiff(dates[0], dates[1]));
+	}
+	const buckets: { label: string; test: (g: number) => boolean }[] = [
+		{ label: '1 day', test: (g) => g === 1 },
+		{ label: '2 days', test: (g) => g === 2 },
+		{ label: '3–4 days', test: (g) => g >= 3 && g <= 4 },
+		{ label: '5–7 days', test: (g) => g >= 5 && g <= 7 },
+		{ label: '8–14 days', test: (g) => g >= 8 && g <= 14 },
+		{ label: '15–30 days', test: (g) => g >= 15 && g <= 30 },
+		{ label: '31+ days', test: (g) => g >= 31 }
+	];
+	return buckets.map((b) => ({ label: b.label, value: gaps.filter(b.test).length }));
+}
+
+// ── guesses / difficulty ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** Distribution of guess counts, with everything above `max` collapsed. */
+export function guessHistogram(completions: CompletionRow[], max = 8): HistogramBin[] {
+	const bins: HistogramBin[] = [];
+	for (let g = 1; g <= max; g++) bins.push({ label: String(g), value: 0 });
+	bins.push({ label: `${max + 1}+`, value: 0 });
+	for (const c of completions) {
+		if (c.guessCount <= max) bins[c.guessCount - 1].value++;
+		else bins[max].value++;
+	}
+	return bins;
+}
+
+/** Share of completions solved on the very first guess, %. */
+export function firstTryRate(completions: CompletionRow[]): number | null {
+	if (completions.length === 0) return null;
+	const firstTry = completions.filter((c) => c.guessCount === 1).length;
+	return pct(firstTry, completions.length);
+}
+
+export function averageGuesses(completions: CompletionRow[]): number | null {
+	if (completions.length === 0) return null;
+	const total = completions.reduce((sum, c) => sum + c.guessCount, 0);
+	return round1(total / completions.length);
+}
+
+// ── streaks ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface StreakSurvivalPoint {
+	length: number;
+	probability: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Probability that a streak of length N continues to N+1.
+ * Denominator counts every day a player's run reached length N.
+ */
+export function streakSurvival(completions: CompletionRow[]): StreakSurvivalPoint[] {
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	const attempts = new Map<number, number>();
+	const continued = new Map<number, number>();
+
+	for (const dates of datesByPlayer.values()) {
+		let streak = 0;
+		for (let i = 0; i < dates.length; i++) {
+			streak = i > 0 && dayDiff(dates[i - 1], dates[i]) === 1 ? streak + 1 : 1;
+			attempts.set(streak, (attempts.get(streak) ?? 0) + 1);
+			const tomorrow = addDays(dates[i], 1);
+			if (dates.includes(tomorrow)) {
+				continued.set(streak, (continued.get(streak) ?? 0) + 1);
+			}
+		}
+	}
+
+	const lengths = [...attempts.keys()].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+	const out: StreakSurvivalPoint[] = [];
+	for (const length of lengths) {
+		const denom = attempts.get(length) ?? 0;
+		if (denom === 0) continue;
+		out.push({ length, probability: round1(((continued.get(length) ?? 0) / denom) * 100) });
+	}
+	return out;
+}
+
+// ── content ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** Shannon entropy (bits) of a count distribution. */
+export function entropy(counts: number[]): number {
+	const total = counts.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
+	if (total <= 0) return 0;
+	let h = 0;
+	for (const c of counts) {
+		if (c <= 0) continue;
+		const p = c / total;
+		h -= p * Math.log2(p);
+	}
+	return Math.round(h * 1000) / 1000;
+}
+
+/** Next-feature interval per book, bucketed. */
+export function repeatIntervals(verses: VerseRow[]): HistogramBin[] {
+	const byBook = new Map<string, string[]>();
+	for (const v of verses) {
+		const arr = byBook.get(v.bookId);
+		if (arr) arr.push(v.date);
+		else byBook.set(v.bookId, [v.date]);
+	}
+	const gaps: number[] = [];
+	for (const dates of byBook.values()) {
+		dates.sort();
+		for (let i = 1; i < dates.length; i++) gaps.push(dayDiff(dates[i - 1], dates[i]));
+	}
+	const buckets: { label: string; test: (g: number) => boolean }[] = [
+		{ label: '1–7d', test: (g) => g <= 7 },
+		{ label: '8–14d', test: (g) => g >= 8 && g <= 14 },
+		{ label: '15–30d', test: (g) => g >= 15 && g <= 30 },
+		{ label: '31–60d', test: (g) => g >= 31 && g <= 60 },
+		{ label: '61–90d', test: (g) => g >= 61 && g <= 90 },
+		{ label: '90d+', test: (g) => g > 90 }
+	];
+	return buckets.map((b) => ({ label: b.label, value: gaps.filter(b.test).length }));
+}
+
+export interface BookCoverageOptions {
+	start: string;
+	end: string;
+	minPlays?: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Per-book content + retention stats over `[start, end]`.
+ * `days` is the number of distinct days the book was the answer; `plays` is the
+ * number of completions on those days.
+ */
+export function bookCoverage(
+	verses: VerseRow[],
+	completions: CompletionRow[],
+	opts: BookCoverageOptions
+): BookStat[] {
+	const { start, end, minPlays = 1 } = opts;
+	const verseInRange = verses.filter((v) => v.date >= start && v.date <= end);
+	const bookByDate = new Map<string, string>();
+	const daysByBook = new Map<string, Set<string>>();
+	for (const v of verseInRange) {
+		bookByDate.set(v.date, v.bookId);
+		let set = daysByBook.get(v.bookId);
+		if (!set) {
+			set = new Set();
+			daysByBook.set(v.bookId, set);
+		}
+		set.add(v.date);
+	}
+
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	const completionsInRange = completions.filter((c) => c.date >= start && c.date <= end);
+
+	// Aggregate per book
+	const stats = new Map<
+		string,
+		{ plays: number; firstTry: number; guessSum: number; d1: number; d1Denom: number }
+	>();
+	for (const c of completionsInRange) {
+		const bookId = bookByDate.get(c.date);
+		if (!bookId) continue;
+		let s = stats.get(bookId);
+		if (!s) {
+			s = { plays: 0, firstTry: 0, guessSum: 0, d1: 0, d1Denom: 0 };
+			stats.set(bookId, s);
+		}
+		s.plays++;
+		if (c.guessCount === 1) s.firstTry++;
+		s.guessSum += c.guessCount;
+		s.d1Denom++;
+		const dates = datesByPlayer.get(c.anonymousId) ?? [];
+		if (dates.includes(addDays(c.date, 1))) s.d1++;
+	}
+
+	const out: BookStat[] = [];
+	for (const book of bibleBooks) {
+		const days = daysByBook.get(book.id)?.size ?? 0;
+		const s = stats.get(book.id);
+		if (!s || s.plays < minPlays) {
+			out.push({
+				bookId: book.id,
+				days,
+				plays: s?.plays ?? 0,
+				firstTryPct: s ? (pct(s.firstTry, s.plays) ?? 0) : 0,
+				avgGuesses: s ? round1(s.guessSum / s.plays) : 0,
+				d1Return: null
+			});
+			continue;
+		}
+		out.push({
+			bookId: book.id,
+			days,
+			plays: s.plays,
+			firstTryPct: pct(s.firstTry, s.plays) ?? 0,
+			avgGuesses: round1(s.guessSum / s.plays),
+			d1Return: pct(s.d1, s.d1Denom)
+		});
+	}
+	return out;
+}
+
+/** Next-day return rate grouped by how many guesses the solve took. */
+export function retentionByGuessBucket(
+	completions: CompletionRow[]
+): { bucket: string; d1: number | null; plays: number }[] {
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	const buckets: { label: string; test: (g: number) => boolean }[] = [
+		{ label: '1', test: (g) => g === 1 },
+		{ label: '2', test: (g) => g === 2 },
+		{ label: '3', test: (g) => g === 3 },
+		{ label: '4–5', test: (g) => g >= 4 && g <= 5 },
+		{ label: '6+', test: (g) => g >= 6 }
+	];
+	return buckets.map((b) => {
+		const rows = completions.filter((c) => b.test(c.guessCount));
+		let returned = 0;
+		for (const c of rows) {
+			const dates = datesByPlayer.get(c.anonymousId) ?? [];
+			if (dates.includes(addDays(c.date, 1))) returned++;
+		}
+		return { bucket: b.label, d1: pct(returned, rows.length), plays: rows.length };
+	});
+}
+
+/** Completion counts by weekday (0=Sun) and UTC hour. */
+export function weekdayHourHeatmap(completions: CompletionRow[]): number[][] {
+	const grid: number[][] = Array.from({ length: 7 }, () => Array(24).fill(0));
+	for (const c of completions) {
+		const d = new Date(c.completedAt);
+		grid[d.getUTCDay()][d.getUTCHours()]++;
+	}
+	return grid;
+}
+
+/** Overall share of players who ever played more than once. */
+export function overallReturnRate(completions: CompletionRow[]): number | null {
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	if (datesByPlayer.size === 0) return null;
+	let returned = 0;
+	for (const dates of datesByPlayer.values()) if (dates.length >= 2) returned++;
+	return pct(returned, datesByPlayer.size);
+}
+
+/** Players who completed on each date, for daily series. */
+export function dailyCompletionsSeries(
+	completions: CompletionRow[],
+	start: string,
+	end: string
+): { date: string; completions: number; newPlayers: number }[] {
+	const firsts = firstPlayDates(completions);
+	const byDate = new Map<string, { completions: number; newPlayers: number }>();
+	for (const date of dateRange(start, end)) byDate.set(date, { completions: 0, newPlayers: 0 });
+	for (const c of completions) {
+		const row = byDate.get(c.date);
+		if (!row) continue;
+		row.completions++;
+		if (firsts.get(c.anonymousId) === c.date) row.newPlayers++;
+	}
+	return [...byDate.entries()].map(([date, v]) => ({ date, ...v }));
+}
+
+export { startOfWeek, addDays, dayDiff };

src/lib/server/stats/segments.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+import type {
+	PlayerState,
+	SegmentCounts,
+	SegmentSets,
+	StatsSettings
+} from '$lib/types/stats';
+import { dayDiff } from './dates';
+
+/**
+ * Classify players into mutually-exclusive lifecycle segments using the
+ * thresholds supplied at render time. The stored player state is frozen as of
+ * the snapshot date, so changing thresholds re-segments all history instantly
+ * without rebuilding anything.
+ */
+export function deriveSegments(
+	players: PlayerState[],
+	asOfDate: string,
+	settings: StatsSettings
+): SegmentSets {
+	const sets: SegmentSets = {
+		new: [],
+		core: [],
+		returning: [],
+		resurrected: [],
+		atRisk: [],
+		churned: [],
+		active: []
+	};
+
+	for (const p of players) {
+		const inactive = dayDiff(p.lastDate, asOfDate);
+		const firstAge = dayDiff(p.firstDate, asOfDate);
+
+		// Inactive segments first.
+		if (inactive >= settings.churn_days) {
+			sets.churned.push(p.id);
+			continue;
+		}
+		if (inactive >= settings.at_risk_days) {
+			sets.atRisk.push(p.id);
+			continue;
+		}
+
+		sets.active.push(p.id);
+
+		if (firstAge < 7) {
+			sets.new.push(p.id);
+		} else if (p.plays7 >= settings.core_plays_per_week) {
+			sets.core.push(p.id);
+		} else if (
+			p.plays7 > 0 &&
+			firstAge > settings.resurrect_gap_days &&
+			p.plays30 <= p.plays7
+		) {
+			// Active this week, no activity in the 8–30 day band, first seen long
+			// ago → they came back after a long gap.
+			sets.resurrected.push(p.id);
+		} else {
+			sets.returning.push(p.id);
+		}
+	}
+
+	return sets;
+}
+
+export function countSegments(sets: SegmentSets): SegmentCounts {
+	return {
+		new: sets.new.length,
+		core: sets.core.length,
+		returning: sets.returning.length,
+		resurrected: sets.resurrected.length,
+		atRisk: sets.atRisk.length,
+		churned: sets.churned.length,
+		active: sets.active.length,
+		total:
+			sets.active.length +
+			sets.atRisk.length +
+			sets.churned.length
+	};
+}

src/lib/server/stats/settings.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+import { db as defaultDb } from '$lib/server/db';
+import { dashboardSettings } from '$lib/server/db/schema';
+import {
+	SETTINGS_DEFAULTS,
+	type SettingsKey,
+	type StatsSettings
+} from '$lib/types/stats';
+import type { StatsDb } from './db';
+
+const SETTINGS_KEYS = Object.keys(SETTINGS_DEFAULTS) as SettingsKey[];
+
+/** `core_plays_per_week` → `STATS_CORE_PLAYS_PER_WEEK` */
+export function settingsEnvVar(key: SettingsKey): string {
+	return `STATS_${key.toUpperCase()}`;
+}
+
+/** Defaults from `SETTINGS_DEFAULTS`, overridden by `STATS_*` env vars. */
+export function envSettings(): StatsSettings {
+	const out = { ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS } as StatsSettings;
+	for (const key of SETTINGS_KEYS) {
+		const raw = Bun.env[settingsEnvVar(key)];
+		if (raw === undefined || raw === '') continue;
+		const value = Number(raw);
+		if (Number.isFinite(value)) out[key] = value;
+	}
+	return out;
+}
+
+function coerce(key: SettingsKey, raw: string): number {
+	const value = Number(raw);
+	return Number.isFinite(value) ? value : SETTINGS_DEFAULTS[key];
+}
+
+/**
+ * Reads persisted overrides from `dashboard_settings` and overlays them on the
+ * env/default baseline. Safe to call when the table does not yet exist.
+ */
+export async function getSettings(database: StatsDb = defaultDb): Promise<StatsSettings> {
+	const settings = envSettings();
+	try {
+		const rows = await database.select().from(dashboardSettings);
+		for (const row of rows) {
+			if ((SETTINGS_KEYS as string[]).includes(row.key)) {
+				settings[row.key as SettingsKey] = coerce(row.key as SettingsKey, row.value);
+			}
+		}
+	} catch {
+		// Table missing / DB unavailable — fall back to defaults.
+	}
+	return settings;
+}
+
+/** Upserts a partial set of setting overrides. */
+export async function updateSettings(
+	partial: Partial<StatsSettings>,
+	database: StatsDb = defaultDb
+): Promise<StatsSettings> {
+	const now = new Date();
+	for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(partial)) {
+		if (!(SETTINGS_KEYS as string[]).includes(key)) continue;
+		if (value === undefined || value === null || !Number.isFinite(value)) continue;
+		await database
+			.insert(dashboardSettings)
+			.values({ key, value: String(value), updatedAt: now })
+			.onConflictDoUpdate({
+				target: dashboardSettings.key,
+				set: { value: String(value), updatedAt: now }
+			});
+	}
+	return getSettings(database);
+}
+
+/** Stable short hash of the resolved settings — used to detect stale snapshots. */
+export function hashSettings(settings: StatsSettings): string {
+	const canonical = SETTINGS_KEYS.map((k) => `${k}=${settings[k]}`).join(';');
+	const digest = new Bun.CryptoHasher('sha256').update(canonical).digest('hex');
+	return digest.slice(0, 12);
+}
+
+export async function configVersion(database: StatsDb = defaultDb): Promise<string> {
+	return hashSettings(await getSettings(database));
+}

src/lib/server/stats/signals.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,246 @@
+import type { SeriesPoint, Signal, SignalSeverity, SnapshotPayload, StatsSettings } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+// ── generic anomaly detection ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface Anomaly {
+	date: string;
+	value: number;
+	median: number;
+	score: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Robust, weekday-aware anomaly detection. Compares the latest point with the
+ * median/MAD of the same weekday over the preceding `lookback` points.
+ * Returns null when there is not enough history or the series is flat.
+ */
+export function detectAnomaly(series: SeriesPoint[], threshold: number, lookback = 28): Anomaly | null {
+	const points = series.filter((p) => p.value !== null) as { date: string; value: number }[];
+	if (points.length < 5) return null;
+	const latest = points[points.length - 1];
+	const weekday = new Date(latest.date + 'T00:00:00Z').getUTCDay();
+	const history = points
+		.slice(0, -1)
+		.filter((p) => new Date(p.date + 'T00:00:00Z').getUTCDay() === weekday)
+		.slice(-lookback);
+	if (history.length < 4) return null;
+
+	const values = history.map((p) => p.value).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+	const median = medianOf(values);
+	const deviations = values.map((v) => Math.abs(v - median)).sort((a, b) => a - b);
+	const mad = medianOf(deviations);
+	if (mad === 0) return null;
+	const score = (0.6745 * (latest.value - median)) / mad;
+	if (Math.abs(score) < threshold) return null;
+	return { date: latest.date, value: latest.value, median: Math.round(median * 10) / 10, score: Math.round(score * 10) / 10 };
+}
+
+function medianOf(sorted: number[]): number {
+	if (sorted.length === 0) return 0;
+	const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
+	return sorted.length % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2 : sorted[mid];
+}
+
+// ── rule helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+type Direction = 'up' | 'down';
+
+interface TargetRule {
+	id: string;
+	title: string;
+	action: string;
+	value: number | null;
+	target: number;
+	/** At or above target is good when direction is 'up'. */
+	direction?: Direction;
+	/** Absolute value that means "red" regardless of the target. */
+	red: number;
+	unit?: string;
+}
+
+function evaluateTarget(rule: TargetRule): Signal {
+	const { id, title, action, value, target, red, direction = 'up', unit = '%' } = rule;
+	if (value === null) {
+		return {
+			id,
+			severity: 'info',
+			title,
+			detail: `Not enough data yet to measure this (needs instrumented events).`,
+			metric: id,
+			value: null,
+			target
+		};
+	}
+
+	const meets = direction === 'up' ? value >= target : value <= target;
+	const isRed = direction === 'up' ? value < red : value > red;
+	let severity: SignalSeverity = 'good';
+	if (!meets) severity = isRed ? 'bad' : 'warn';
+
+	const comparison =
+		direction === 'up'
+			? value >= target
+				? `at or above the ${target}% target`
+				: `below the ${target}% target`
+			: value <= target
+				? `at or below the ${target}% target`
+				: `above the ${target}% target`;
+
+	return {
+		id,
+		severity,
+		title,
+		detail: `${title} is ${value}${unit}, ${comparison}.`,
+		action: severity === 'good' ? undefined : action,
+		metric: id,
+		value,
+		target
+	};
+}
+
+// ── main engine ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Evaluate the explicit targets plus anomaly detection. Pure: the snapshot
+ * payload carries every number the engine needs.
+ */
+export function evaluateSignals(payload: SnapshotPayload, settings: StatsSettings): Signal[] {
+	const { kpis, activity } = payload;
+	const signals: Signal[] = [];
+
+	signals.push(
+		evaluateTarget({
+			id: 'd1_return',
+			title: 'D1 return',
+			action: 'Test a "come back tomorrow" prompt on the win screen.',
+			value: kpis.d1Return,
+			target: settings.d1_target,
+			red: 12
+		})
+	);
+
+	signals.push(
+		evaluateTarget({
+			id: 'return7',
+			title: '7-day return',
+			action: 'Improve the first-session experience or send a day-2 reminder.',
+			value: kpis.return7,
+			target: settings.return7_target,
+			red: 15
+		})
+	);
+
+	signals.push(
+		evaluateTarget({
+			id: 'completion',
+			title: 'Completion rate',
+			action: 'Look for friction between the first guess and the win screen.',
+			value: kpis.completionRate,
+			target: settings.completion_target,
+			red: 55
+		})
+	);
+
+	// First-try rate is a band: both too high and too low are bad.
+	if (kpis.firstTryRate === null) {
+		signals.push({
+			id: 'first_try',
+			severity: 'info',
+			title: 'First-try rate',
+			detail: 'Not enough data yet to measure this.',
+			metric: 'first_try'
+		});
+	} else {
+		const v = kpis.firstTryRate;
+		const inBand = v >= settings.first_try_min && v <= settings.first_try_max;
+		const severe = v > 45 || v < 8;
+		signals.push({
+			id: 'first_try',
+			severity: inBand ? 'good' : severe ? 'bad' : 'warn',
+			title: 'Verse achievability',
+			detail: `First-try rate is ${v}% (target band ${settings.first_try_min}–${settings.first_try_max}%).${
+				v > settings.first_try_max
+					? ' Verses may be too easy / self-revealing.'
+					: v < settings.first_try_min
+						? ' Verses may be too hard.'
+						: ''
+			}`,
+			action: inBand ? undefined : 'Review the verse mix for the easiest / hardest books.',
+			metric: 'first_try',
+			value: v,
+			target: settings.first_try_max
+		});
+	}
+
+	signals.push(
+		evaluateTarget({
+			id: 'share_rate',
+			title: 'Share rate',
+			action: 'Make the share action more prominent or reward sharing.',
+			value: kpis.shareRate,
+			target: settings.share_target,
+			red: 15
+		})
+	);
+
+	// Core players: week-over-week direction.
+	if (activity.corePrevious === null) {
+		signals.push({
+			id: 'core_players',
+			severity: 'info',
+			title: 'Core players',
+			detail: `${activity.core} players finished 4+ times this week. No prior week to compare yet.`,
+			metric: 'core_players',
+			value: activity.core
+		});
+	} else {
+		const delta = activity.core - activity.corePrevious;
+		signals.push({
+			id: 'core_players',
+			severity: delta >= 0 ? 'good' : 'warn',
+			title: 'Core players',
+			detail: `${activity.core} players finished 4+ times this week (${delta >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${delta} vs last week).`,
+			action: delta < 0 ? 'Check whether verse difficulty or reminders changed.' : undefined,
+			metric: 'core_players',
+			value: activity.core
+		});
+	}
+
+	// Anomaly detection on the daily completions series.
+	const anomaly = detectAnomaly(
+		payload.dailySeries.map((d) => ({ date: d.date, value: d.completions })),
+		settings.anomaly_mad_threshold
+	);
+	if (anomaly) {
+		const direction = anomaly.score > 0 ? 'above' : 'below';
+		signals.push({
+			id: 'completions_anomaly',
+			severity: anomaly.score > 0 ? 'good' : 'warn',
+			title: 'Unusual day',
+			detail: `${anomaly.date} had ${anomaly.value} finishes, well ${direction} the usual ${anomaly.median} for that weekday.`,
+			action: anomaly.score < 0 ? 'Check for outages or a hard verse.' : undefined,
+			metric: 'completions',
+			value: anomaly.value,
+			target: anomaly.median
+		});
+	}
+
+	return signals;
+}
+
+const SEVERITY_ORDER: Record<SignalSeverity, number> = { bad: 0, warn: 1, info: 2, good: 3 };
+
+export function sortSignals(signals: Signal[]): Signal[] {
+	return signals
+		.slice()
+		.sort((a, b) => SEVERITY_ORDER[a.severity] - SEVERITY_ORDER[b.severity]);
+}
+
+/** One-line verdict for the Pulse banner. */
+export function verdictLine(signals: Signal[]): string {
+	const top = sortSignals(signals)[0];
+	if (!top) return 'No signals yet.';
+	if (top.severity === 'good') return `All core metrics are on target. ${top.detail}`;
+	if (top.severity === 'info') return top.detail;
+	return top.detail;
+}

src/lib/server/stats/snapshot.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,684 @@
+import { and, eq, lte } from 'drizzle-orm';
+import { db as defaultDb } from '$lib/server/db';
+import {
+	analyticsEvents,
+	dailyCompletions,
+	dailyVerses,
+	statsSnapshot,
+	user
+} from '$lib/server/db/schema';
+import type { StatsDb } from './db';
+import type {
+	Activity,
+	CompletionRow,
+	DailyPoint,
+	HabitData,
+	HistogramBin,
+	Kpis,
+	PlayerState,
+	SeriesPoint,
+	SnapshotPayload,
+	StatsSettings,
+	VerseRow
+} from '$lib/types/stats';
+import { bibleBooks } from '$lib/types/bible';
+import { getSettings, hashSettings } from './settings';
+import { deriveSegments, countSegments } from './segments';
+import { evaluateSignals } from './signals';
+import {
+	activePlayers,
+	averageGuesses,
+	bookCoverage,
+	cohortTriangle,
+	dailyCompletionsSeries,
+	entropy,
+	firstPlayDates,
+	firstTryRate,
+	groupDatesByPlayer,
+	guessHistogram,
+	netGrowth,
+	newVsReturning,
+	overallReturnRate,
+	repeatIntervals,
+	retentionByGuessBucket,
+	streakSurvival,
+	timeToSecondPlayHistogram,
+	weekdayHourHeatmap
+} from './metrics';
+import { addDays, dateRange, dayDiff, startOfWeek, todayUtc } from './dates';
+
+export type BuildKind = 'scheduled' | 'lazy' | 'reconstructed';
+
+/**
+ * Bump whenever the snapshot payload shape changes. Older snapshots are
+ * rebuilt lazily so the UI never reads a stale shape.
+ */
+export const PAYLOAD_SCHEMA_VERSION = 2;
+
+const RETENTION_WINDOW_DAYS = 180;
+const SERIES_DAYS = 90;
+const RECENT_KPI_DAYS = 30;
+
+function endOfDay(dateStr: string): Date {
+	return new Date(dateStr + 'T23:59:59.999Z');
+}
+
+function round1(n: number): number {
+	return Math.round(n * 10) / 10;
+}
+
+export interface LoadedData {
+	completions: CompletionRow[];
+	verses: VerseRow[];
+	startedByDate: Map<string, number>;
+	shareEvents: number;
+	firstEventDate: string | null;
+	signupDates: string[];
+}
+
+/** Load all rows needed to build a snapshot as of `cutoff` (inclusive). */
+export async function loadStatsData(
+	cutoff: string,
+	database: StatsDb = defaultDb
+): Promise<LoadedData> {
+	const cutoffDate = endOfDay(cutoff);
+
+	const completionRows = await database
+		.select({
+			anonymousId: dailyCompletions.anonymousId,
+			date: dailyCompletions.date,
+			guessCount: dailyCompletions.guessCount,
+			guesses: dailyCompletions.guesses,
+			completedAt: dailyCompletions.completedAt
+		})
+		.from(dailyCompletions)
+		.where(and(lte(dailyCompletions.date, cutoff), lte(dailyCompletions.completedAt, cutoffDate)));
+
+	const verseRows = await database
+		.select({ date: dailyVerses.date, bookId: dailyVerses.bookId })
+		.from(dailyVerses)
+		.where(lte(dailyVerses.date, cutoff));
+
+	const eventRows = await database
+		.select({
+			name: analyticsEvents.name,
+			date: analyticsEvents.date,
+			createdAt: analyticsEvents.createdAt
+		})
+		.from(analyticsEvents)
+		.where(lte(analyticsEvents.createdAt, cutoffDate));
+
+	const startedByDate = new Map<string, number>();
+	let shareEvents = 0;
+	let firstEventDate: string | null = null;
+	for (const e of eventRows) {
+		const eventDate = e.date ?? new Date(e.createdAt).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+		if (!firstEventDate || eventDate < firstEventDate) firstEventDate = eventDate;
+		if (e.name === 'verse_served' && e.date && e.date <= cutoff) {
+			startedByDate.set(e.date, (startedByDate.get(e.date) ?? 0) + 1);
+		}
+		if ((e.name === 'share' || e.name === 'share_copy') && eventDate <= cutoff) {
+			shareEvents++;
+		}
+	}
+
+	const userRows = await database
+		.select({ id: user.id, createdAt: user.createdAt })
+		.from(user)
+		.where(lte(user.createdAt, cutoffDate));
+
+	return {
+		completions: completionRows as CompletionRow[],
+		verses: verseRows,
+		startedByDate,
+		shareEvents,
+		firstEventDate,
+		signupDates: userRows
+			.filter((u) => u.createdAt)
+			.map((u) => new Date(u.createdAt as Date).toISOString().slice(0, 10))
+	};
+}
+
+/** Compact per-player state as of `asOfDate`, for players active in the window. */
+export function computePlayerState(
+	completions: CompletionRow[],
+	asOfDate: string,
+	activeWindowDays: number
+): PlayerState[] {
+	const windowStart = addDays(asOfDate, -(activeWindowDays - 1));
+	const sevenStart = addDays(asOfDate, -6);
+	const thirtyStart = addDays(asOfDate, -29);
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	const out: PlayerState[] = [];
+
+	for (const [id, dates] of datesByPlayer) {
+		const inScope = dates.filter((d) => d <= asOfDate);
+		if (inScope.length === 0) continue;
+		const firstDate = inScope[0];
+		const lastDate = inScope[inScope.length - 1];
+		if (lastDate < windowStart) continue;
+
+		// Current consecutive-day streak ending at the last active day.
+		let streak = 1;
+		for (let i = inScope.length - 1; i > 0; i--) {
+			if (dayDiff(inScope[i - 1], inScope[i]) === 1) streak++;
+			else break;
+		}
+
+		out.push({
+			id,
+			firstDate,
+			lastDate,
+			totalPlays: inScope.length,
+			plays7: inScope.filter((d) => d >= sevenStart).length,
+			plays30: inScope.filter((d) => d >= thirtyStart).length,
+			streak
+		});
+	}
+	return out;
+}
+
+/** Pooled return rate over a run of cohort days (more stable than single days). */
+function pooledReturn(
+	completions: CompletionRow[],
+	cohortEnd: string,
+	cohortDays: number,
+	n: number
+): number | null {
+	const firsts = firstPlayDates(completions);
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(completions);
+	const start = addDays(cohortEnd, -(cohortDays - 1));
+	let cohort = 0;
+	let returned = 0;
+	for (const [id, first] of firsts) {
+		if (first < start || first > cohortEnd) continue;
+		cohort++;
+		const limit = addDays(first, n);
+		const dates = datesByPlayer.get(id) ?? [];
+		if (dates.some((d) => d > first && d <= limit)) returned++;
+	}
+	if (cohort === 0) return null;
+	return round1((returned / cohort) * 100);
+}
+
+function buildActivity(
+	pointCompletions: CompletionRow[],
+	asOfDate: string,
+	settings: StatsSettings
+): Activity {
+	const dau = activePlayers(pointCompletions, asOfDate, 1);
+	const wau = activePlayers(pointCompletions, asOfDate, 7);
+	const mau = activePlayers(pointCompletions, asOfDate, 30);
+	const { returningShare } = newVsReturning(pointCompletions, asOfDate);
+	const growth = netGrowth(pointCompletions, asOfDate, 7, settings.resurrect_gap_days);
+
+	// Core count current + one week earlier, both with current thresholds.
+	const core = deriveSegments(
+		computePlayerState(pointCompletions, asOfDate, settings.active_window_days),
+		asOfDate,
+		settings
+	).core.length;
+	const prevDate = addDays(asOfDate, -7);
+	const corePrevious = deriveSegments(
+		computePlayerState(
+			pointCompletions.filter((c) => c.date <= prevDate),
+			prevDate,
+			settings.active_window_days
+		),
+		prevDate,
+		settings
+	).core.length;
+
+	const prev = addDays(asOfDate, -7);
+	const previous = {
+		dau: activePlayers(pointCompletions, prev, 1),
+		wau: activePlayers(pointCompletions, prev, 7),
+		mau: activePlayers(pointCompletions, prev, 30),
+		core: corePrevious
+	};
+
+	return {
+		dau,
+		wau,
+		mau,
+		core,
+		returningShare,
+		newPlayers: growth.newPlayers,
+		resurrected: growth.resurrected,
+		churned: growth.churned,
+		netGrowth: growth.netGrowth,
+		corePrevious,
+		previous
+	};
+}
+
+function buildKpis(
+	pointCompletions: CompletionRow[],
+	data: LoadedData,
+	asOfDate: string
+): Kpis {
+	const recentStart = addDays(asOfDate, -(RECENT_KPI_DAYS - 1));
+	const recent = pointCompletions.filter((c) => c.date >= recentStart);
+
+	const shares = data.shareEvents;
+	const completionsInRecent = recent.length;
+
+	// Completion rate: only meaningful once verse_served events exist.
+	let started = 0;
+	for (const [date, count] of data.startedByDate) {
+		if (date >= recentStart && date <= asOfDate) started += count;
+	}
+	const completionRate = started > 0 ? round1((completionsInRecent / started) * 100) : null;
+	const shareRate = shares > 0 && completionsInRecent > 0
+		? round1((shares / completionsInRecent) * 100)
+		: null;
+
+	return {
+		// Most recent resolvable cohorts (as-of yesterday can't resolve its own D1).
+		d1Return: pooledReturn(pointCompletions, addDays(asOfDate, -1), 7, 1),
+		return7: pooledReturn(pointCompletions, addDays(asOfDate, -7), 7, 7),
+		overallReturnRate: overallReturnRate(pointCompletions),
+		completionRate,
+		shareRate,
+		firstTryRate: firstTryRate(recent),
+		avgGuesses: averageGuesses(recent)
+	};
+}
+
+function buildCurves(
+	pointCompletions: CompletionRow[],
+	allCompletions: CompletionRow[],
+	asOfDate: string,
+	n: number,
+	matured: boolean
+): SeriesPoint[] {
+	const series: SeriesPoint[] = [];
+	// Only cohorts whose window has resolved by `asOfDate` are point-in-time
+	// honest; for matured builds the effective end is today.
+	const effectiveEnd = matured ? todayUtc() : asOfDate;
+	const latest = addDays(effectiveEnd, -n);
+	const start = addDays(latest, -29);
+	const firsts = firstPlayDates(pointCompletions);
+	const datesByPlayer = groupDatesByPlayer(allCompletions);
+	for (const date of dateRange(start, latest)) {
+		const limit = addDays(date, n);
+		let cohort = 0;
+		let returned = 0;
+		for (const [id, first] of firsts) {
+			if (first !== date) continue;
+			cohort++;
+			const dates = datesByPlayer.get(id) ?? [];
+			if (dates.some((d) => d > date && d <= limit)) returned++;
+		}
+		series.push({ date, value: cohort >= 3 ? round1((returned / cohort) * 100) : null });
+	}
+	return series;
+}
+
+function buildHabit(pointCompletions: CompletionRow[], players: PlayerState[], asOfDate: string): HabitData {
+	const calendarStart = addDays(asOfDate, -119);
+	const calendarCounts = new Map<string, number>();
+	for (const c of pointCompletions) {
+		if (c.date < calendarStart || c.date > asOfDate) continue;
+		calendarCounts.set(c.date, (calendarCounts.get(c.date) ?? 0) + 1);
+	}
+	const calendar = dateRange(calendarStart, asOfDate).map((date) => ({
+		date,
+		count: calendarCounts.get(date) ?? 0
+	}));
+
+	// Current-streak distribution, bucketed.
+	const buckets = new Map<string, number>([
+		['1', 0],
+		['2', 0],
+		['3–4', 0],
+		['5–6', 0],
+		['7–13', 0],
+		['14+', 0]
+	]);
+	for (const p of players) {
+		if (p.streak <= 1) continue;
+		const label =
+			p.streak === 2
+				? '2'
+				: p.streak <= 4
+					? '3–4'
+					: p.streak <= 6
+						? '5–6'
+						: p.streak <= 13
+							? '7–13'
+							: '14+';
+		buckets.set(label, (buckets.get(label) ?? 0) + 1);
+	}
+	const streakLengths: HistogramBin[] = [...buckets.entries()].map(([label, value]) => ({
+		label,
+		value
+	}));
+
+	return {
+		streakSurvival: streakSurvival(pointCompletions),
+		streakLengths,
+		calendar,
+		weekdayHour: weekdayHourHeatmap(pointCompletions)
+	};
+}
+
+function buildSegmentMix(
+	pointCompletions: CompletionRow[],
+	asOfDate: string,
+	settings: StatsSettings
+): SnapshotPayload['retention']['segmentMix'] {
+	const start = addDays(asOfDate, -29);
+	const out: SnapshotPayload['retention']['segmentMix'] = [];
+	for (const date of dateRange(start, asOfDate)) {
+		const point = pointCompletions.filter((c) => c.date <= date);
+		const players = computePlayerState(point, date, settings.active_window_days);
+		const counts = countSegments(deriveSegments(players, date, settings));
+		out.push({
+			date,
+			new: counts.new,
+			core: counts.core,
+			returning: counts.returning,
+			resurrected: counts.resurrected,
+			atRisk: counts.atRisk,
+			churned: counts.churned
+		});
+	}
+	return out;
+}
+
+function buildGrowth(
+	data: LoadedData,
+	players: PlayerState[],
+	asOfDate: string
+): SnapshotPayload['growth'] {
+	const thresholds = [1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50];
+	const lifecycleFunnel = thresholds.map((t) => ({
+		label: `${t}+`,
+		players: players.filter((p) => p.totalPlays >= t).length
+	}));
+	const start = addDays(asOfDate, -89);
+	const counts = new Map<string, number>();
+	for (const d of data.signupDates) {
+		if (d >= start && d <= asOfDate) counts.set(d, (counts.get(d) ?? 0) + 1);
+	}
+	const signups = dateRange(start, asOfDate).map((date) => ({
+		date,
+		count: counts.get(date) ?? 0
+	}));
+	return { lifecycleFunnel, signups };
+}
+
+function buildVerseMix(
+	pointCompletions: CompletionRow[],
+	verses: VerseRow[],
+	asOfDate: string
+): SnapshotPayload['verseMix'] {
+	const mixStart = addDays(asOfDate, -179);
+	const inRangeVerses = verses.filter((v) => v.date >= mixStart && v.date <= asOfDate);
+	const oldTestament = new Set(
+		bibleBooks.filter((b) => b.testament === 'old').map((b) => b.id)
+	);
+	const coverage = bookCoverage(inRangeVerses, pointCompletions, {
+		start: mixStart,
+		end: asOfDate
+	});
+
+	// Weekly testament mix + book-distribution entropy.
+	const weeksBack = 12;
+	const weekStart = startOfWeek(addDays(asOfDate, -(weeksBack - 1) * 7));
+	const testamentMix: { date: string; old: number; new: number }[] = [];
+	const entropySeries: SeriesPoint[] = [];
+	for (let w = 0; w < weeksBack; w++) {
+		const wStart = addDays(weekStart, w * 7);
+		const wEnd = addDays(wStart, 6);
+		const rows = inRangeVerses.filter((v) => v.date >= wStart && v.date <= wEnd);
+		if (rows.length === 0) {
+			testamentMix.push({ date: wStart, old: 0, new: 0 });
+			entropySeries.push({ date: wStart, value: null });
+			continue;
+		}
+		const bookCounts = new Map<string, number>();
+		let old = 0;
+		let nt = 0;
+		for (const v of rows) {
+			bookCounts.set(v.bookId, (bookCounts.get(v.bookId) ?? 0) + 1);
+			if (oldTestament.has(v.bookId)) old++;
+			else nt++;
+		}
+		testamentMix.push({ date: wStart, old, new: nt });
+		entropySeries.push({ date: wStart, value: entropy([...bookCounts.values()]) });
+	}
+
+	const firstTryByBook = coverage
+		.filter((b) => b.plays >= 3)
+		.sort((a, b) => b.plays - a.plays);
+
+	return {
+		coverage,
+		testamentMix,
+		entropy: entropySeries,
+		repeatIntervals: repeatIntervals(verses),
+		firstTryByBook,
+		retentionByBook: coverage.filter((b) => b.d1Return !== null),
+		retentionByGuessBucket: retentionByGuessBucket(pointCompletions),
+		achievability: guessHistogram(pointCompletions.filter((c) => c.date >= addDays(asOfDate, -29)))
+	};
+}
+
+export interface ComputeOptions {
+	/** Data cutoff for retention resolution (defaults to asOfDate). */
+	matureThrough?: string;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Compute a full snapshot payload. Pure with respect to I/O: everything it
+ * needs is passed in, which keeps the point-in-time cutoff testable.
+ */
+export function computePayload(
+	asOfDate: string,
+	settings: StatsSettings,
+	data: LoadedData,
+	opts: ComputeOptions = {}
+): SnapshotPayload {
+	const pointCompletions = data.completions.filter((c) => c.date <= asOfDate);
+	// Retention uses everything loaded: identical for point-in-time builds, and
+	// extends past `asOfDate` for matured builds.
+	const allCompletions = data.completions;
+	const matured = !!opts.matureThrough && opts.matureThrough > asOfDate;
+
+	const activity = buildActivity(pointCompletions, asOfDate, settings);
+	const kpis = buildKpis(pointCompletions, data, asOfDate);
+
+	const seriesStart = addDays(asOfDate, -(SERIES_DAYS - 1));
+	const baseSeries = dailyCompletionsSeries(pointCompletions, seriesStart, asOfDate);
+	const dailySeries: DailyPoint[] = baseSeries.map((d) => ({
+		...d,
+		started: data.startedByDate.get(d.date) ?? 0
+	}));
+
+	const players = computePlayerState(pointCompletions, asOfDate, settings.active_window_days);
+
+	const cohortStart = startOfWeek(addDays(asOfDate, -11 * 7));
+	const cohorts = cohortTriangle(allCompletions, {
+		start: cohortStart,
+		weeks: 12,
+		asOf: matured ? todayUtc() : asOfDate,
+		minSize: 3
+	});
+	const retention: SnapshotPayload['retention'] = {
+		cohorts,
+		curves: {
+			d1: buildCurves(pointCompletions, allCompletions, asOfDate, 1, matured),
+			d7: buildCurves(pointCompletions, allCompletions, asOfDate, 7, matured),
+			d30: buildCurves(pointCompletions, allCompletions, asOfDate, 30, matured)
+		},
+		timeToSecondPlay: timeToSecondPlayHistogram(allCompletions),
+		segmentMix: buildSegmentMix(pointCompletions, asOfDate, settings)
+	};
+
+	const growth = buildGrowth(data, players, asOfDate);
+	const verseMix = buildVerseMix(pointCompletions, data.verses, asOfDate);
+	const habit = buildHabit(pointCompletions, players, asOfDate);
+	const yesterday = pointCompletions.filter((c) => c.date === asOfDate);
+	const totals = {
+		completions: pointCompletions.length,
+		players: firstPlayDates(pointCompletions).size,
+		yesterdayCompletions: yesterday.length,
+		yesterdayAvgGuesses: averageGuesses(yesterday)
+	};
+
+	const payload: SnapshotPayload = {
+		asOfDate,
+		activity,
+		dailySeries,
+		kpis,
+		retention,
+		verseMix,
+		habit,
+		growth,
+		totals,
+		signals: [],
+		meta: {
+			hasStartedData: data.startedByDate.size > 0,
+			hasShareData: data.shareEvents > 0,
+			firstEventDate: data.firstEventDate,
+			generatedAt: Date.now(),
+			schemaVersion: PAYLOAD_SCHEMA_VERSION
+		}
+	};
+
+	payload.signals = evaluateSignals(payload, settings);
+	return payload;
+}
+
+export interface StoredSnapshot {
+	date: string;
+	generatedAt: Date;
+	buildKind: BuildKind;
+	configVersion: string;
+	payload: SnapshotPayload;
+	config: StatsSettings;
+	playerState: PlayerState[];
+}
+
+function parseRow(row: typeof statsSnapshot.$inferSelect): StoredSnapshot {
+	return {
+		date: row.date,
+		generatedAt: row.generatedAt,
+		buildKind: row.buildKind as BuildKind,
+		configVersion: row.configVersion,
+		payload: JSON.parse(row.payload) as SnapshotPayload,
+		config: JSON.parse(row.config) as StatsSettings,
+		playerState: row.playerState ? (JSON.parse(row.playerState) as PlayerState[]) : []
+	};
+}
+
+export async function getSnapshot(
+	date: string,
+	database: StatsDb = defaultDb
+): Promise<StoredSnapshot | null> {
+	const [row] = await database.select().from(statsSnapshot).where(eq(statsSnapshot.date, date));
+	return row ? parseRow(row) : null;
+}
+
+export interface BuildResult {
+	snapshot: StoredSnapshot;
+	settings: StatsSettings;
+	buildKind: BuildKind;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Build and persist a snapshot. `replace=false` never overwrites an existing
+ * (immutable) snapshot; the caller re-reads instead.
+ */
+export async function buildSnapshot(
+	asOfDate: string,
+	opts: { kind: BuildKind; replace?: boolean; matureThrough?: string; persist?: boolean },
+	database: StatsDb = defaultDb
+): Promise<BuildResult> {
+	const settings = await getSettings(database);
+	const version = hashSettings(settings);
+	const cutoff = opts.matureThrough ?? asOfDate;
+	const data = await loadStatsData(cutoff, database);
+	const payload = computePayload(asOfDate, settings, data, {
+		matureThrough: opts.matureThrough
+	});
+	const playerState = computePlayerState(
+		data.completions.filter((c) => c.date <= asOfDate),
+		asOfDate,
+		settings.active_window_days
+	);
+
+	const row = {
+		date: asOfDate,
+		generatedAt: new Date(),
+		buildKind: opts.kind,
+		configVersion: version,
+		payload: JSON.stringify(payload),
+		playerState: JSON.stringify(playerState),
+		config: JSON.stringify(settings)
+	};
+
+	if (opts.persist !== false) {
+		if (opts.replace) {
+			await database
+				.insert(statsSnapshot)
+				.values(row)
+				.onConflictDoUpdate({ target: statsSnapshot.date, set: row });
+		} else {
+			await database.insert(statsSnapshot).values(row).onConflictDoNothing();
+		}
+	}
+
+	return {
+		snapshot: {
+			date: asOfDate,
+			generatedAt: row.generatedAt,
+			buildKind: opts.kind,
+			configVersion: version,
+			payload,
+			config: settings,
+			playerState
+		},
+		settings,
+		buildKind: opts.kind
+	};
+}
+
+/**
+ * Return the snapshot for `date`, building it lazily if missing. Race-safe via
+ * `INSERT OR IGNORE` followed by a re-read.
+ */
+export async function ensureSnapshot(
+	date: string,
+	opts: { matureThrough?: string } = {},
+	database: StatsDb = defaultDb
+): Promise<StoredSnapshot> {
+	const existing = await getSnapshot(date, database);
+	if (existing && existing.payload.meta?.schemaVersion === PAYLOAD_SCHEMA_VERSION) {
+		return existing;
+	}
+	// Missing or built with an older payload shape: (re)build deterministically
+	// for this point in time. The point-in-time cutoff keeps it faithful.
+	await buildSnapshot(
+		date,
+		{ kind: 'lazy', matureThrough: opts.matureThrough, replace: !!existing },
+		database
+	);
+	const stored = await getSnapshot(date, database);
+	if (!stored) throw new Error(`Failed to build snapshot for ${date}`);
+	return stored;
+}
+
+/** True when a stored snapshot was built with different thresholds or shape. */
+export async function isSnapshotStale(
+	date: string,
+	database: StatsDb = defaultDb
+): Promise<boolean> {
+	const snapshot = await getSnapshot(date, database);
+	if (!snapshot) return false;
+	if (snapshot.payload.meta?.schemaVersion !== PAYLOAD_SCHEMA_VERSION) return true;
+	const current = hashSettings(await getSettings(database));
+	return snapshot.configVersion !== current;
+}

src/lib/stores/game-persistence.svelte.ts

@@ -1,18 +1,6 @@
 import { browser } from "$app/environment";
-import { evaluateGuess, generateUUID, type Guess } from "$lib/utils/game";
-
-// Returns a stable anonymous ID for this browser, creating one if it doesn't exist yet.
-// Used to attribute stats to a player who hasn't signed in.
-function getOrCreateAnonymousId(): string {
-	if (!browser) return "";
-	const key = "bibdle-anonymous-id";
-	let id = localStorage.getItem(key);
-	if (!id) {
-		id = generateUUID();
-		localStorage.setItem(key, id);
-	}
-	return id;
-}
+import { evaluateGuess, type Guess } from "$lib/utils/game";
+import { getOrCreateAnonymousId } from "$lib/utils/analytics";
 
 // Reactive store that keeps in-memory game state in sync with localStorage.
 // Accepts getter functions (rather than plain values) so Svelte's reactivity

src/lib/types/stats.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,252 @@
+/**
+ * Shared types for the private statistics dashboard (see statistics-plan.md).
+ *
+ * Keep this module dependency-free (no DB / Svelte imports) so it can be used
+ * from server code, Svelte components, and unit tests alike.
+ */
+
+// ── Settings ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Dashboard thresholds. Keys are snake_case to match both the
+ * `dashboard_settings` table and the `STATS_*` environment variables.
+ */
+export const SETTINGS_DEFAULTS = {
+	core_plays_per_week: 4,
+	churn_days: 30,
+	resurrect_gap_days: 30,
+	at_risk_days: 8,
+	active_window_days: 180,
+	d1_target: 20,
+	return7_target: 25,
+	completion_target: 70,
+	first_try_min: 15,
+	first_try_max: 35,
+	share_target: 25,
+	anomaly_mad_threshold: 2
+} as const;
+
+export type SettingsKey = keyof typeof SETTINGS_DEFAULTS;
+
+export type StatsSettings = Record<SettingsKey, number>;
+
+// ── Plain rows (pure metric inputs) ──────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** The subset of a `daily_completions` row the metrics need. */
+export interface CompletionRow {
+	anonymousId: string;
+	date: string;
+	guessCount: number;
+	guesses?: string | null;
+	completedAt: Date | number;
+}
+
+export interface VerseRow {
+	date: string;
+	bookId: string;
+}
+
+export interface UserRow {
+	id: string;
+	createdAt: Date | null;
+}
+
+// ── Player state & segments ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** Compact per-player state frozen as of a snapshot date. */
+export interface PlayerState {
+	id: string;
+	firstDate: string;
+	lastDate: string;
+	totalPlays: number;
+	plays7: number;
+	plays30: number;
+	streak: number;
+}
+
+export interface SegmentSets {
+	new: string[];
+	core: string[];
+	returning: string[];
+	resurrected: string[];
+	atRisk: string[];
+	churned: string[];
+	active: string[];
+}
+
+export interface SegmentCounts {
+	new: number;
+	core: number;
+	returning: number;
+	resurrected: number;
+	atRisk: number;
+	churned: number;
+	active: number;
+	total: number;
+}
+
+// ── Signals ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export type SignalSeverity = 'good' | 'info' | 'warn' | 'bad';
+
+export interface Signal {
+	id: string;
+	severity: SignalSeverity;
+	title: string;
+	detail: string;
+	action?: string;
+	metric?: string;
+	value?: number | null;
+	target?: number | null;
+}
+
+// ── Payload ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface DailyPoint {
+	date: string;
+	completions: number;
+	newPlayers: number;
+	started: number;
+}
+
+export interface SeriesPoint {
+	date: string;
+	value: number | null;
+}
+
+export interface CohortRow {
+	weekStart: string;
+	size: number;
+	/** Index 0 = week 0 (the cohort week); index k = k weeks later. */
+	counts: number[];
+	rates: (number | null)[];
+}
+
+export interface HistogramBin {
+	label: string;
+	value: number;
+}
+
+export interface BookStat {
+	bookId: string;
+	days: number;
+	plays: number;
+	firstTryPct: number;
+	avgGuesses: number;
+	d1Return: number | null;
+}
+
+export interface Activity {
+	dau: number;
+	wau: number;
+	mau: number;
+	core: number;
+	returningShare: number | null;
+	newPlayers: number;
+	resurrected: number;
+	churned: number;
+	netGrowth: number;
+	/** Core count from the snapshot ~7 days earlier (same thresholds), if available. */
+	corePrevious: number | null;
+	/** Same-metric values for the previous day (weekday-aligned comparison). */
+	previous: {
+		dau: number;
+		wau: number;
+		mau: number;
+		core: number;
+	} | null;
+}
+
+export interface Kpis {
+	d1Return: number | null;
+	return7: number | null;
+	overallReturnRate: number | null;
+	completionRate: number | null;
+	shareRate: number | null;
+	firstTryRate: number | null;
+	avgGuesses: number | null;
+}
+
+export interface RetentionData {
+	cohorts: CohortRow[];
+	curves: {
+		d1: SeriesPoint[];
+		d7: SeriesPoint[];
+		d30: SeriesPoint[];
+	};
+	timeToSecondPlay: HistogramBin[];
+	segmentMix: {
+		date: string;
+		new: number;
+		core: number;
+		returning: number;
+		resurrected: number;
+		atRisk: number;
+		churned: number;
+	}[];
+}
+
+export interface VerseMixData {
+	coverage: BookStat[];
+	testamentMix: { date: string; old: number; new: number }[];
+	entropy: SeriesPoint[];
+	repeatIntervals: HistogramBin[];
+	firstTryByBook: BookStat[];
+	retentionByBook: BookStat[];
+	retentionByGuessBucket: { bucket: string; d1: number | null; plays: number }[];
+	achievability: HistogramBin[];
+}
+
+export interface HabitData {
+	streakSurvival: { length: number; probability: number }[];
+	streakLengths: HistogramBin[];
+	calendar: { date: string; count: number }[];
+	weekdayHour: number[][];
+}
+
+export interface SnapshotPayload {
+	asOfDate: string;
+	activity: Activity;
+	dailySeries: DailyPoint[];
+	kpis: Kpis;
+	retention: RetentionData;
+	verseMix: VerseMixData;
+	habit: HabitData;
+	growth: {
+		lifecycleFunnel: { label: string; players: number }[];
+		signups: { date: string; count: number }[];
+	};
+	/** Safe, all-time aggregates for the public community widget. */
+	totals: {
+		completions: number;
+		players: number;
+		yesterdayCompletions: number;
+		yesterdayAvgGuesses: number | null;
+	};
+	signals: Signal[];
+	/** Metadata about data availability, so the UI can show honest em-dashes. */
+	meta: {
+		hasStartedData: boolean;
+		hasShareData: boolean;
+		firstEventDate: string | null;
+		generatedAt?: number;
+		/** Payload shape version; older snapshots are rebuilt lazily. */
+		schemaVersion?: number;
+	};
+}
+
+// ── Analytics events ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** Appendix B — allowlisted event names. */
+export const EVENT_NAMES = [
+	'verse_served',
+	'share',
+	'share_copy',
+	'first_visit',
+	'donate_click',
+	'discord_click'
+] as const;
+
+export type EventName = (typeof EVENT_NAMES)[number];
+
+export const MAX_METADATA_BYTES = 2048;

src/lib/utils/acquisition.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+/** Pure first-touch acquisition parsing (no browser/SvelteKit imports). */
+
+export interface Acquisition {
+	referrer: string | null;
+	utm_source: string | null;
+	utm_medium: string | null;
+	utm_campaign: string | null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Extract first-touch acquisition data from a query string and referrer.
+ * Same-origin referrers are ignored when `location` is available.
+ */
+export function parseAcquisition(search: string, referrer: string): Acquisition {
+	const params = new URLSearchParams(search);
+	const clean = (v: string | null): string | null => {
+		if (v === null) return null;
+		const trimmed = v.trim().slice(0, 256);
+		return trimmed.length > 0 ? trimmed : null;
+	};
+	let ref = referrer || null;
+	if (ref) {
+		try {
+			const refUrl = new URL(ref);
+			if (typeof location !== 'undefined' && refUrl.origin === location.origin) ref = null;
+		} catch {
+			/* keep raw referrer */
+		}
+	}
+	return {
+		referrer: clean(ref),
+		utm_source: clean(params.get('utm_source') ?? params.get('ref')),
+		utm_medium: clean(params.get('utm_medium')),
+		utm_campaign: clean(params.get('utm_campaign'))
+	};
+}

src/lib/utils/analytics.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+import { browser } from '$app/environment';
+import { generateUUID } from './game';
+import { parseAcquisition, type Acquisition } from './acquisition';
+import type { EventName } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+export { parseAcquisition };
+export type { Acquisition };
+
+const ANON_KEY = 'bibdle-anonymous-id';
+const FIRST_VISIT_KEY = 'bibdle-first-visit-sent';
+
+/** Stable pseudonymous ID for this browser, created on first use. */
+export function getOrCreateAnonymousId(): string {
+	if (!browser) return '';
+	let id = localStorage.getItem(ANON_KEY);
+	if (!id) {
+		id = generateUUID();
+		localStorage.setItem(ANON_KEY, id);
+	}
+	return id;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fire-and-forget event. Never throws and never blocks the UI.
+ * `date` should be the game date for date-scoped events (e.g. verse_served).
+ */
+export function track(
+	name: EventName,
+	metadata?: Record<string, unknown> | null,
+	date?: string | null
+): void {
+	if (!browser) return;
+	try {
+		const body = JSON.stringify({
+			name,
+			anonymousId: getOrCreateAnonymousId(),
+			date: date ?? null,
+			metadata: metadata ?? null
+		});
+		void fetch('/api/events', {
+			method: 'POST',
+			headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+			body,
+			keepalive: true
+		}).catch(() => {});
+	} catch {
+		/* ignore */
+	}
+}
+
+/**
+ * Records a single `first_visit` event per browser with referrer / UTM data.
+ * Call once on mount (root layout).
+ */
+export function captureFirstVisit(): void {
+	if (!browser) return;
+	try {
+		if (localStorage.getItem(FIRST_VISIT_KEY) === 'true') return;
+		const acquisition = parseAcquisition(location.search, document.referrer ?? '');
+		track('first_visit', { ...acquisition });
+		localStorage.setItem(FIRST_VISIT_KEY, 'true');
+	} catch {
+		/* ignore */
+	}
+}

src/lib/utils/stats-format.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+/** Small formatting helpers shared by the stats dashboard components. */
+
+export function numOrDash(n: number | null | undefined): string {
+	return n === null || n === undefined ? '—' : String(n);
+}
+
+export function pctOrDash(n: number | null | undefined): string {
+	return n === null || n === undefined ? '—' : `${n}%`;
+}
+
+export function signed(n: number | null | undefined): string {
+	if (n === null || n === undefined) return '—';
+	return `${n >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${n}`;
+}
+
+export function formatDateLabel(dateStr: string): string {
+	return new Date(dateStr + 'T00:00:00Z').toLocaleDateString('en-US', {
+		month: 'short',
+		day: 'numeric',
+		year: 'numeric',
+		timeZone: 'UTC'
+	});
+}
+
+export function weekdayName(dateStr: string): string {
+	return new Date(dateStr + 'T00:00:00Z').toLocaleDateString('en-US', {
+		weekday: 'short',
+		timeZone: 'UTC'
+	});
+}
+
+/** Compare a value to a previous value, returning signed delta and direction. */
+export function delta(
+	value: number | null | undefined,
+	previous: number | null | undefined
+): { text: string; direction: 'up' | 'down' | 'flat' } {
+	if (value === null || value === undefined || previous === null || previous === undefined) {
+		return { text: '—', direction: 'flat' };
+	}
+	const diff = value - previous;
+	if (diff === 0) return { text: 'no change', direction: 'flat' };
+	return { text: signed(diff), direction: diff > 0 ? 'up' : 'down' };
+}

src/routes/+layout.svelte

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@
 	import favicon from "$lib/assets/favicon.ico";
 	import TitleAnimation from "$lib/components/TitleAnimation.svelte";
 	import ThemeToggle from "$lib/components/ThemeToggle.svelte";
+	import { captureFirstVisit } from "$lib/utils/analytics";
 
 	let isDev = $state(false);
 
@@ -14,6 +15,9 @@
 			window.location.host === "localhost:5173" ||
 			window.location.host === "test.bibdle.com";
 
+		// Instrumentation E: capture first-touch referrer / UTM once per browser.
+		captureFirstVisit();
+
 		// Inject analytics script
 		const script = document.createElement("script");
 		script.defer = true;
@@ -31,12 +35,6 @@
 
 <svelte:head>
 	<link rel="icon" href={favicon} />
-	<link
-		rel="alternate"
-		type="application/rss+xml"
-		title="Bibdle RSS Feed"
-		href="/feed.xml"
-	/>
 	<meta name="description" content="A Wordle-inspired daily Bible game" />
 </svelte:head>
 

src/routes/+page.server.ts

@@ -18,6 +18,18 @@ export const actions: Actions = {
 		const anonymousId = formData.get('anonymousId') as string;
 		const date = formData.get('date') as string;
 		const guessCount = parseInt(formData.get('guessCount') as string, 10);
+		// Optional JSON array of book IDs — mirrors the JSON API so all guest
+		// completions persist guess sequences (instrumentation A).
+		const guessesRaw = formData.get('guesses') as string | null;
+		let guesses: string[] | null = null;
+		if (guessesRaw) {
+			try {
+				const parsed = JSON.parse(guessesRaw);
+				if (Array.isArray(parsed)) guesses = parsed.map(String);
+			} catch {
+				guesses = null;
+			}
+		}
 
 		// Validation
 		if (!anonymousId || !date || isNaN(guessCount) || guessCount < 1) {
@@ -33,6 +45,7 @@ export const actions: Actions = {
 				anonymousId,
 				date,
 				guessCount,
+				guesses: guesses && guesses.length > 0 ? JSON.stringify(guesses) : null,
 				completedAt,
 			});
 		} catch (err: any) {

src/routes/+page.ts

@@ -1,15 +1,17 @@
 import type { PageLoad } from './$types';
+import { getOrCreateAnonymousId } from '$lib/utils/analytics';
 
 // Disable SSR so the load function runs on the client with the correct local date
 export const ssr = false;
 
 export const load: PageLoad = async ({ fetch, data }) => {
 	const localDate = new Date().toLocaleDateString("en-CA");
+	const anonymousId = getOrCreateAnonymousId();
 
 	const res = await fetch('/api/daily-verse', {
 		method: 'POST',
 		headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
-		body: JSON.stringify({ date: localDate }),
+		body: JSON.stringify({ date: localDate, anonymousId }),
 	});
 
 	const result = await res.json();

src/routes/admin/stats/+page.server.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+import { error, fail, redirect } from '@sveltejs/kit';
+import type { Actions, PageServerLoad } from './$types';
+import { isAdmin } from '$lib/server/admin';
+import { addDays, isValidDate } from '$lib/server/stats/dates';
+import {
+	buildSnapshot,
+	ensureSnapshot,
+	isSnapshotStale
+} from '$lib/server/stats/snapshot';
+import { deriveSegments, countSegments } from '$lib/server/stats/segments';
+import { getSettings, updateSettings, hashSettings } from '$lib/server/stats/settings';
+import { sortSignals, verdictLine } from '$lib/server/stats/signals';
+import { SETTINGS_DEFAULTS, type SettingsKey, type StatsSettings } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+function todayEst(): string {
+	return new Date().toLocaleDateString('en-CA', { timeZone: 'America/New_York' });
+}
+
+export const load: PageServerLoad = async ({ locals, url }) => {
+	if (!isAdmin(locals.user?.email)) {
+		throw error(404, 'Not found');
+	}
+
+	const today = todayEst();
+	const yesterday = addDays(today, -1);
+	const dateParam = url.searchParams.get('date');
+	let date = dateParam && isValidDate(dateParam) ? dateParam : yesterday;
+	if (date > today) date = today;
+	const matured = url.searchParams.get('mature') === '1';
+
+	const settings = await getSettings();
+
+	// Normal loads read (or lazily build) the immutable snapshot. The mature
+	// toggle is the only path allowed to compute on demand from raw data.
+	const snapshot = matured
+		? (
+				await buildSnapshot(date, {
+					kind: 'lazy',
+					matureThrough: today,
+					persist: false
+				})
+			).snapshot
+		: await ensureSnapshot(date);
+
+	const segments = deriveSegments(snapshot.playerState, date, settings);
+	const stale =
+		!matured && snapshot.configVersion !== hashSettings(settings);
+	const topSignal = sortSignals(snapshot.payload.signals)[0] ?? null;
+
+	return {
+		date,
+		today,
+		generatedAt: snapshot.generatedAt,
+		buildKind: snapshot.buildKind,
+		payload: snapshot.payload,
+		settings,
+		segmentCounts: countSegments(segments),
+		verdict: verdictLine(snapshot.payload.signals),
+		topSignal,
+		stale,
+		matured,
+		userEmail: locals.user?.email ?? null
+	};
+};
+
+export const actions: Actions = {
+	updateSettings: async ({ request, url, locals }) => {
+		if (!isAdmin(locals.user?.email)) {
+			return fail(403, { error: 'Forbidden' });
+		}
+		const form = await request.formData();
+		const partial: Partial<StatsSettings> = {};
+		for (const key of Object.keys(SETTINGS_DEFAULTS) as SettingsKey[]) {
+			const raw = form.get(key);
+			if (typeof raw === 'string' && raw !== '') {
+				const value = Number(raw);
+				if (Number.isFinite(value)) partial[key] = value;
+			}
+		}
+		try {
+			await updateSettings(partial);
+		} catch (err) {
+			return fail(500, { error: String(err) });
+		}
+		// Segments are re-derived at render time, so no rebuild is needed.
+		const date = url.searchParams.get('date');
+		throw redirect(303, `/admin/stats${date ? `?date=${date}` : ''}`);
+	}
+};

src/routes/admin/stats/+page.svelte

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+<script lang="ts">
+	import type { PageData } from './$types';
+	import ConsoleChrome from '$lib/components/stats/ConsoleChrome.svelte';
+	import Pulse from '$lib/components/stats/Pulse.svelte';
+	import GrowthLoop from '$lib/components/stats/GrowthLoop.svelte';
+	import RetentionLab from '$lib/components/stats/RetentionLab.svelte';
+	import VerseMixLab from '$lib/components/stats/VerseMixLab.svelte';
+	import HabitLab from '$lib/components/stats/HabitLab.svelte';
+	import SignalsFeed from '$lib/components/stats/SignalsFeed.svelte';
+	import FeatureImpact from '$lib/components/stats/FeatureImpact.svelte';
+	import Glossary from '$lib/components/stats/Glossary.svelte';
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import { numOrDash } from '$lib/utils/stats-format';
+
+	let { data }: { data: PageData } = $props();
+
+	const segments = $derived(data.segmentCounts);
+</script>
+
+<svelte:head>
+	<title>Growth Console | Bibdle</title>
+	<meta name="robots" content="noindex" />
+</svelte:head>
+
+<div class="min-h-screen bg-gray-950 p-4 md:p-6">
+	<div class="mx-auto flex max-w-6xl flex-col gap-8 pb-16">
+		<ConsoleChrome
+			date={data.date}
+			today={data.today}
+			generatedAt={data.generatedAt}
+			buildKind={data.buildKind}
+			matured={data.matured}
+			stale={data.stale}
+			settings={data.settings}
+		/>
+
+		<Pulse
+			payload={data.payload}
+			settings={data.settings}
+			verdict={data.verdict}
+			topSignal={data.topSignal}
+		/>
+
+		<section class="flex flex-col gap-3">
+			<h2 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-100">Segment mix (as of this date)</h2>
+			<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6">
+				{#each [
+					{ label: 'New (7d)', value: segments.new },
+					{ label: 'Core', value: segments.core },
+					{ label: 'Returning', value: segments.returning },
+					{ label: 'Resurrected', value: segments.resurrected },
+					{ label: 'At risk', value: segments.atRisk },
+					{ label: 'Churned', value: segments.churned }
+				] as item (item.label)}
+					<Container class="p-3 w-full items-start text-left">
+						<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">{item.label}</p>
+						<p class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-100">{numOrDash(item.value)}</p>
+					</Container>
+				{/each}
+			</div>
+			<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">
+				Segments are re-derived from stored per-player state, so changing thresholds in Settings
+				updates every date instantly. Total tracked players: {numOrDash(segments.total)}.
+			</p>
+		</section>
+
+		<GrowthLoop payload={data.payload} />
+		<RetentionLab payload={data.payload} settings={data.settings} />
+		<VerseMixLab payload={data.payload} />
+		<HabitLab payload={data.payload} />
+		<SignalsFeed signals={data.payload.signals} />
+		<FeatureImpact />
+		<Glossary />
+	</div>
+</div>

src/routes/api/admin/rebuild-stats/+server.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+import { json } from '@sveltejs/kit';
+import type { RequestHandler } from './$types';
+import { isAdmin } from '$lib/server/admin';
+import { isValidDate } from '$lib/server/stats/dates';
+import { buildSnapshot } from '$lib/server/stats/snapshot';
+
+/** Admin-only manual snapshot (re)build, e.g. after a settings change. */
+export const POST: RequestHandler = async ({ request, locals }) => {
+	if (!isAdmin(locals.user?.email)) {
+		return json({ error: 'Forbidden' }, { status: 403 });
+	}
+
+	let body: { date?: string; mature?: boolean } = {};
+	try {
+		body = await request.json();
+	} catch {
+		/* fall through to validation */
+	}
+
+	const date = body.date;
+	if (!date || !isValidDate(date)) {
+		return json({ error: 'A valid date (YYYY-MM-DD) is required' }, { status: 400 });
+	}
+
+	const { snapshot } = await buildSnapshot(date, {
+		kind: 'reconstructed',
+		replace: true
+	});
+
+	return json({ ok: true, date, buildKind: snapshot.buildKind, generatedAt: snapshot.generatedAt });
+};

src/routes/api/cron/build-stats/+server.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+import { json } from '@sveltejs/kit';
+import type { RequestHandler } from './$types';
+import { addDays } from '$lib/server/stats/dates';
+import { buildSnapshot } from '$lib/server/stats/snapshot';
+import { sendDigest } from '$lib/server/stats/digest';
+
+/**
+ * Daily snapshot build trigger. Protected by `Authorization: Bearer $CRON_SECRET`
+ * (same pattern as `/api/send-daily-verse`). Builds yesterday in `America/New_York`
+ * and then sends the digest.
+ */
+export const POST: RequestHandler = async ({ request }) => {
+	const cronSecret = Bun.env.CRON_SECRET;
+	const authHeader = request.headers.get('Authorization');
+	if (!cronSecret || authHeader !== `Bearer ${cronSecret}`) {
+		return json({ error: 'Unauthorized' }, { status: 401 });
+	}
+
+	const todayEst = new Date().toLocaleDateString('en-CA', { timeZone: 'America/New_York' });
+	const yesterday = addDays(todayEst, -1);
+
+	const { snapshot } = await buildSnapshot(yesterday, {
+		kind: 'scheduled',
+		replace: true
+	});
+
+	// Digest failure must never fail the build.
+	await sendDigest(snapshot.payload);
+
+	return json({ ok: true, date: yesterday, buildKind: 'scheduled' });
+};

src/routes/api/daily-verse/+server.ts

@@ -2,10 +2,11 @@ import { json } from '@sveltejs/kit';
 import type { RequestHandler } from './$types';
 import { getVerseForDate } from '$lib/server/daily-verse';
 import { getBookById } from '$lib/server/bible';
+import { recordEvent } from '$lib/server/stats/events';
 
-export const POST: RequestHandler = async ({ request }) => {
+export const POST: RequestHandler = async ({ request, locals }) => {
 	const body = await request.json();
-	const { date } = body;
+	const { date, anonymousId } = body;
 
 	if (!date || !/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(date)) {
 		return json({ error: 'A valid date (YYYY-MM-DD) is required' }, { status: 400 });
@@ -16,6 +17,18 @@ export const POST: RequestHandler = async ({ request }) => {
 	const dailyVerse = await getVerseForDate(dateStr);
 	const correctBook = getBookById(dailyVerse.bookId) ?? null;
 
+	// Instrumentation B: a player "started" the puzzle for this date. The unique
+	// partial index dedupes reloads, so this is safe to call on every load.
+	// Never let analytics failures affect the response.
+	// Prefer the signed-in user's ID so the started→finished funnel matches
+	// completions (which are keyed to the user ID for logged-in players).
+	const playerId =
+		locals.user?.id ??
+		(typeof anonymousId === 'string' && anonymousId.length > 0 ? anonymousId : null);
+	if (playerId) {
+		void recordEvent({ name: 'verse_served', anonymousId: playerId, date: dateStr });
+	}
+
 	return json({
 		dailyVerse,
 		correctBookId: dailyVerse.bookId,

src/routes/api/events/+server.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+import { json } from '@sveltejs/kit';
+import type { RequestHandler } from './$types';
+import { isEventName, recordEvent, encodeMetadata } from '$lib/server/stats/events';
+
+const DATE_RE = /^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/;
+
+/**
+ * Fire-and-forget client analytics sink.
+ *
+ * Body: `{ name, anonymousId?, date?, metadata? }`.
+ * `userId` is resolved server-side from the session — never trusted from the client.
+ * Always returns 204, even for invalid input, so gameplay is never blocked.
+ */
+export const POST: RequestHandler = async ({ request, locals }) => {
+	let body: any;
+	try {
+		body = await request.json();
+	} catch {
+		return new Response(null, { status: 204 });
+	}
+
+	const name = typeof body?.name === 'string' ? body.name : '';
+	if (!isEventName(name)) {
+		return new Response(null, { status: 204 });
+	}
+
+	const anonymousId =
+		typeof body?.anonymousId === 'string' && body.anonymousId.length > 0
+			? body.anonymousId.slice(0, 128)
+			: null;
+
+	const date =
+		typeof body?.date === 'string' && DATE_RE.test(body.date) ? body.date : null;
+
+	const metadata =
+		body?.metadata && typeof body.metadata === 'object' && !Array.isArray(body.metadata)
+			? (body.metadata as Record<string, unknown>)
+			: null;
+
+	// Ensure metadata is always serializable/capped before it reaches the DB.
+	void encodeMetadata(metadata);
+
+	await recordEvent({
+		name,
+		anonymousId,
+		userId: locals.user?.id ?? null,
+		date,
+		metadata
+	});
+
+	return new Response(null, { status: 204 });
+};

src/routes/feed.xml/+server.ts

@@ -1,133 +1,99 @@
 import type { RequestHandler } from './$types';
 import { db } from '$lib/server/db';
 import { dailyVerses } from '$lib/server/db/schema';
-import { desc } from 'drizzle-orm';
-
-// Helper: Escape XML special characters
-function escapeXml(text: string): string {
-	return text
-		.replace(/&/g, '&')
-		.replace(/</g, '&lt;')
-		.replace(/>/g, '&gt;')
-		.replace(/"/g, '&quot;')
-		.replace(/'/g, '&apos;');
-}
-
-// Helper: Format YYYY-MM-DD to RFC 822 date string
-function formatRFC822(dateStr: string): string {
-	// Parse date in America/New_York timezone (EST/EDT)
-	// Assuming midnight ET
-	const date = new Date(dateStr + 'T00:00:00-05:00');
-	return date.toUTCString().replace('GMT', 'EST');
-}
-
-// Helper: Format YYYY-MM-DD to readable date
-function formatReadableDate(dateStr: string): string {
-	const date = new Date(dateStr + 'T00:00:00');
-	return date.toLocaleDateString('en-US', {
-		month: 'long',
-		day: 'numeric',
-		year: 'numeric',
-		timeZone: 'America/New_York'
-	});
-}
-
-// Helper: Format verse text (VerseDisplay + Imposter unbalanced punctuation handling)
-function formatVerseText(text: string): string {
-	let formatted = text;
-
-	// Handle unbalanced opening/closing punctuation (from Imposter.svelte)
-	const pairs: [string, string][] = [
-		['(', ')'],
-		['[', ']'],
-		['{', '}'],
-		['"', '"'],
-		["'", "'"],
-		['\u201C', '\u201D'], // " "
-		['\u2018', '\u2019'] // ' '
-	];
-
-	// Check if text starts with opening punctuation without closing
-	for (const [open, close] of pairs) {
-		if (formatted.startsWith(open) && !formatted.includes(close)) {
-			formatted += '...' + close;
-			break;
-		}
-	}
-
-	// Check if text ends with closing punctuation without opening
-	for (const [open, close] of pairs) {
-		if (formatted.endsWith(close) && !formatted.includes(open)) {
-			formatted = open + '...' + formatted;
-			break;
-		}
-	}
-
-	// Check if text contains unbalanced opening quotes (not at start) without closing
-	for (const [open, close] of pairs) {
-		const openCount = (formatted.match(new RegExp(`\\${open}`, 'g')) || []).length;
-		const closeCount = (formatted.match(new RegExp(`\\${close}`, 'g')) || []).length;
-		if (openCount > closeCount) {
-			formatted += close;
-			break;
-		}
-	}
-
-	// Capitalize first letter if lowercase (from VerseDisplay.svelte)
-	formatted = formatted.replace(/^([a-z])/, (c) => c.toUpperCase());
-
-	// Replace trailing punctuation with ellipsis
-	// Preserve closing quotes/brackets that may have been added
-	formatted = formatted.replace(/[,:;-—]([)\]}\"\'\u201D\u2019]*)$/, '...$1');
-
-	return formatted;
-}
+import { desc, lte } from 'drizzle-orm';
+import {
+	FEED_ITEM_LIMIT,
+	cdata,
+	escapeXml,
+	feedFingerprint,
+	formatRFC822,
+	formatReadableDate,
+	formatVerseText,
+	latestModification,
+	todayInTimeZone
+} from '$lib/server/rss';
 
 export const GET: RequestHandler = async ({ request }) => {
 	try {
-		// Query last 30 verses, ordered by date descending
+		const SITE_URL = process.env.PUBLIC_SITE_URL || 'https://bibdle.com';
+		const FEED_URL = `${SITE_URL}/feed.xml`;
+		const today = todayInTimeZone();
+
+		// Only publish verses whose calendar day has arrived. Pre-scheduled
+		// future verses (from the submission scheduling scan) and any stray
+		// future-dated rows must never leak into the feed early.
 		const verses = await db
 			.select()
 			.from(dailyVerses)
+			.where(lte(dailyVerses.date, today))
 			.orderBy(desc(dailyVerses.date))
-			.limit(30);
+			.limit(FEED_ITEM_LIMIT);
 
-		// Generate ETag based on latest verse date
-		const etag = verses[0]?.date ? `"bibdle-feed-${verses[0].date}"` : '"bibdle-feed-empty"';
+		// Content-addressed ETag + Last-Modified let aggregators revalidate
+		// cheaply with If-None-Match / If-Modified-Since.
+		const etag = `"bibdle-feed-${feedFingerprint(verses)}"`;
+		const lastModifiedDate = latestModification(
+			verses,
+			new Date(`${today}T00:00:00Z`)
+		);
+		const lastModified = lastModifiedDate.toUTCString();
 
-		// Check if client has cached version
-		if (request.headers.get('If-None-Match') === etag) {
-			return new Response(null, { status: 304 });
+		const notModified =
+			request.headers.get('If-None-Match') === etag ||
+			(() => {
+				const since = request.headers.get('If-Modified-Since');
+				if (!since) return false;
+				const sinceMs = Date.parse(since);
+				return !Number.isNaN(sinceMs) && lastModifiedDate.getTime() <= sinceMs;
+			})();
+
+		if (notModified) {
+			return new Response(null, {
+				status: 304,
+				headers: {
+					ETag: etag,
+					'Last-Modified': lastModified,
+					'Cache-Control': 'public, max-age=3600, s-maxage=3600'
+				}
+			});
 		}
 
-		// Get site URL from environment or use default
-		const SITE_URL = process.env.PUBLIC_SITE_URL || 'https://bibdle.com';
-
-		// Build RSS XML
 		const lastBuildDate = verses[0] ? formatRFC822(verses[0].date) : new Date().toUTCString();
 
 		const items = verses
-			.map(
-				(verse) => `
+			.map((verse) => {
+				const body = formatVerseText(verse.verseText);
+				const escaped = escapeXml(body);
+				return `
     <item>
       <title>Bibdle verse for ${formatReadableDate(verse.date)}</title>
-      <description>${escapeXml(formatVerseText(verse.verseText))}</description>
+      <description>${escaped}</description>
+      <content:encoded>${cdata(`<p>${escaped}</p>`)}</content:encoded>
       <link>${SITE_URL}</link>
       <guid isPermaLink="false">bibdle-verse-${verse.date}</guid>
       <pubDate>${formatRFC822(verse.date)}</pubDate>
-    </item>`
-			)
+    </item>`;
+			})
 			.join('');
 
 		const xml = `<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?>
-<rss version="2.0">
+<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/">
   <channel>
     <title>Bibdle</title>
     <link>${SITE_URL}</link>
-    <description>A daily Bible game</description>
+    <description>A daily Bible verse guessing game</description>
     <language>en-us</language>
     <lastBuildDate>${lastBuildDate}</lastBuildDate>
-    <ttl>720</ttl>${items}
+    <pubDate>${lastBuildDate}</pubDate>
+    <generator>SvelteKit</generator>
+    <ttl>720</ttl>
+    <atom:link href="${escapeXml(FEED_URL)}" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
+    <image>
+      <url>${SITE_URL}/favicon.ico</url>
+      <title>Bibdle</title>
+      <link>${SITE_URL}</link>
+    </image>${items}
   </channel>
 </rss>`;
 
@@ -135,11 +101,12 @@ export const GET: RequestHandler = async ({ request }) => {
 			headers: {
 				'Content-Type': 'application/rss+xml; charset=utf-8',
 				'Cache-Control': 'public, max-age=3600, s-maxage=3600',
-				ETag: etag
+				ETag: etag,
+				'Last-Modified': lastModified
 			}
 		});
 	} catch (error) {
 		console.error('RSS feed generation error:', error);
 		return new Response('Internal Server Error', { status: 500 });
 	}
-};
+}

src/routes/global/+page.server.ts

@@ -1,484 +1,25 @@
-import { db } from '$lib/server/db';
-import { dailyCompletions, user } from '$lib/server/db/schema';
-import { eq, gte, count, countDistinct, avg, asc, min } from 'drizzle-orm';
 import type { PageServerLoad } from './$types';
+import { ensureSnapshot } from '$lib/server/stats/snapshot';
+import { addDays } from '$lib/server/stats/dates';
 
-function estDateStr(daysAgo = 0): string {
-	const estNow = new Date(Date.now() - 5 * 60 * 60 * 1000); // UTC-5
-	estNow.setUTCDate(estNow.getUTCDate() - daysAgo);
-	return estNow.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
-}
-
-function prevDay(d: string): string {
-	const dt = new Date(d + 'T00:00:00Z');
-	dt.setUTCDate(dt.getUTCDate() - 1);
-	return dt.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
-}
-
-function addDays(d: string, n: number): string {
-	const dt = new Date(d + 'T00:00:00Z');
-	dt.setUTCDate(dt.getUTCDate() + n);
-	return dt.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
-}
-
+/**
+ * Slim public community widget. Reads the latest daily snapshot and exposes
+ * only safe aggregates (no retention, churn, signup or revenue data).
+ */
 export const load: PageServerLoad = async () => {
-	const todayEst = estDateStr(0);
-	const yesterdayEst = estDateStr(1);
-	const sevenDaysAgo = estDateStr(7);
-
-	// Three weekly windows for first + second derivative calculations
-	// Week A: last 7 days (indices 0–6)
-	// Week B: 7–13 days ago (indices 7–13)
-	// Week C: 14–20 days ago (indices 14–20)
-	const weekAStart = estDateStr(6);
-	const weekBEnd = estDateStr(7);
-	const weekBStart = estDateStr(13);
-	const weekCEnd = estDateStr(14);
-	const weekCStart = estDateStr(20);
-
-	// ── Scalar stats ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-	const [{ todayCount }] = await db
-		.select({ todayCount: count() })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(eq(dailyCompletions.date, todayEst));
-
-	const [{ totalCount }] = await db
-		.select({ totalCount: count() })
-		.from(dailyCompletions);
-
-	const [{ uniquePlayers }] = await db
-		.select({ uniquePlayers: countDistinct(dailyCompletions.anonymousId) })
-		.from(dailyCompletions);
-
-	const [{ weeklyPlayers }] = await db
-		.select({ weeklyPlayers: countDistinct(dailyCompletions.anonymousId) })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(gte(dailyCompletions.date, sevenDaysAgo));
-
-	const thirtyDaysAgo = estDateStr(30);
-	const [{ monthlyPlayers }] = await db
-		.select({ monthlyPlayers: countDistinct(dailyCompletions.anonymousId) })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(gte(dailyCompletions.date, thirtyDaysAgo));
-
-	const todayPlayers = await db
-		.selectDistinct({ id: dailyCompletions.anonymousId })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(eq(dailyCompletions.date, todayEst));
-
-	const yesterdayPlayers = await db
-		.selectDistinct({ id: dailyCompletions.anonymousId })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(eq(dailyCompletions.date, yesterdayEst));
-
-	const todaySet = new Set(todayPlayers.map((r) => r.id));
-	const activeStreaks = yesterdayPlayers.filter((r) => todaySet.has(r.id)).length;
-
-	const [{ avgGuessesRaw }] = await db
-		.select({ avgGuessesRaw: avg(dailyCompletions.guessCount) })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(eq(dailyCompletions.date, todayEst));
-
-	const avgGuessesToday = avgGuessesRaw != null ? parseFloat(avgGuessesRaw) : null;
-
-	const [{ registeredUsers }] = await db
-		.select({ registeredUsers: count() })
-		.from(user);
-
-	const avgCompletionsPerPlayer =
-		uniquePlayers > 0 ? Math.round((totalCount / uniquePlayers) * 100) / 100 : null;
-
-	// ── 21-day completions per day (covers all three weekly windows) ──────────
-
-	const rawPerDay21 = await db
-		.select({ date: dailyCompletions.date, dayCount: count() })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(gte(dailyCompletions.date, weekCStart))
-		.groupBy(dailyCompletions.date)
-		.orderBy(asc(dailyCompletions.date));
-
-	const counts21 = new Map(rawPerDay21.map((r) => [r.date, r.dayCount]));
-
-	// Build indexed array: index 0 = today, index 20 = 20 days ago
-	const completionsPerDay: number[] = [];
-	for (let i = 0; i <= 20; i++) {
-		completionsPerDay.push(counts21.get(estDateStr(i)) ?? 0);
-	}
-
-	// last14Days for the trend chart (most recent first)
-	const last14Days: { date: string; count: number }[] = [];
-	for (let i = 0; i <= 13; i++) {
-		last14Days.push({ date: estDateStr(i), count: completionsPerDay[i] });
-	}
-
-	// Weekly totals from the indexed array
-	const weekATotal = completionsPerDay.slice(0, 7).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
-	const weekBTotal = completionsPerDay.slice(7, 14).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
-	const weekCTotal = completionsPerDay.slice(14, 21).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
-
-	// First derivative: avg daily completions change (week A vs week B)
-	const completionsVelocity = Math.round(((weekATotal - weekBTotal) / 7) * 10) / 10;
-	// Second derivative: is velocity itself increasing or decreasing?
-	const completionsAcceleration =
-		Math.round((((weekATotal - weekBTotal) - (weekBTotal - weekCTotal)) / 7) * 10) / 10;
-
-	// ── 90-day per-user data (reused for streaks + weekly user sets) ──────────
-
-	const ninetyDaysAgo = estDateStr(90);
-	const recentCompletions = await db
-		.select({ anonymousId: dailyCompletions.anonymousId, date: dailyCompletions.date })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(gte(dailyCompletions.date, ninetyDaysAgo))
-		.orderBy(asc(dailyCompletions.date));
-
-	// Group dates by user (ascending) and users by date
-	const userDatesMap = new Map<string, string[]>();
-	const dateUsersMap = new Map<string, Set<string>>();
-	for (const row of recentCompletions) {
-		const arr = userDatesMap.get(row.anonymousId);
-		if (arr) arr.push(row.date);
-		else userDatesMap.set(row.anonymousId, [row.date]);
-
-		let s = dateUsersMap.get(row.date);
-		if (!s) { s = new Set(); dateUsersMap.set(row.date, s); }
-		s.add(row.anonymousId);
-	}
-
-	// ── Streak distribution ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-	const streakDistribution = new Map<number, number>();
-	for (const dates of userDatesMap.values()) {
-		const desc = dates.slice().reverse();
-		if (desc[0] !== todayEst && desc[0] !== yesterdayEst) continue;
-		let streak = 1;
-		let cur = desc[0];
-		for (let i = 1; i < desc.length; i++) {
-			if (desc[i] === prevDay(cur)) {
-				streak++;
-				cur = desc[i];
-			} else {
-				break;
-			}
-		}
-		if (streak >= 2) {
-			streakDistribution.set(streak, (streakDistribution.get(streak) ?? 0) + 1);
-		}
-	}
-
-	const streakChart = Array.from(streakDistribution.entries())
-		.sort((a, b) => a[0] - b[0])
-		.map(([days, userCount]) => ({ days, count: userCount }));
-
-	// ── Weekly user sets (for user-based velocity + churn) ───────────────────
-
-	const weekAUsers = new Set<string>();
-	const weekBUsers = new Set<string>();
-	const weekCUsers = new Set<string>();
-
-	for (const [userId, dates] of userDatesMap) {
-		if (dates.some((d) => d >= weekAStart)) weekAUsers.add(userId);
-		if (dates.some((d) => d >= weekBStart && d <= weekBEnd)) weekBUsers.add(userId);
-		if (dates.some((d) => d >= weekCStart && d <= weekCEnd)) weekCUsers.add(userId);
-	}
-
-	// First derivative: weekly unique users change
-	const userVelocity = weekAUsers.size - weekBUsers.size;
-	// Second derivative: is user growth speeding up or slowing down?
-	const userAcceleration =
-		weekAUsers.size - weekBUsers.size - (weekBUsers.size - weekCUsers.size);
-
-	// ── New players + churn ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
-	// New players: anonymousIds whose first-ever completion falls in the last 7 days.
-	// Checking against all-time data (not just the 90-day window) ensures accuracy.
-	const firstDates = await db
-		.select({
-			anonymousId: dailyCompletions.anonymousId,
-			firstDate: min(dailyCompletions.date),
-			totalCompletions: count()
-		})
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.groupBy(dailyCompletions.anonymousId);
-
-	const newUsers7d = firstDates.filter((r) => r.firstDate != null && r.firstDate >= weekAStart).length;
-
-	// Churned: played in week B but not at all in week A
-	const churned7d = [...weekBUsers].filter((id) => !weekAUsers.has(id)).length;
-
-	// Net growth = truly new arrivals minus departures
-	const netGrowth7d = newUsers7d - churned7d;
-
-	// ── Session depth funnel ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
-	// For each depth d, count players with >= d completions.
-	// returnRate at depth d = (players with >= d+1) / (players with >= d).
-	const depthCounts = new Map<number, number>();
-	for (const r of firstDates) {
-		const n = r.totalCompletions;
-		for (let d = 1; d <= n; d++) {
-			depthCounts.set(d, (depthCounts.get(d) ?? 0) + 1);
-		}
-	}
-	const sessionDepthCards = [2, 3, 4, 5, 7].map((d) => {
-		const atD = depthCounts.get(d) ?? 0;
-		const atDplus1 = depthCounts.get(d + 1) ?? 0;
-		return {
-			depth: d,
-			players: atD,
-			returnRate: atD >= 3 ? Math.round((atDplus1 / atD) * 1000) / 10 : null
-		};
-	});
-
-	// ── Return rate ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-	// "Return rate": % of all-time unique players who have ever played more than once.
-	const playersWithReturn = firstDates.filter((r) => r.totalCompletions >= 2).length;
-	const overallReturnRate =
-		firstDates.length > 0
-			? Math.round((playersWithReturn / firstDates.length) * 1000) / 10
-			: null;
-
-	// Daily new-player return rate: for each day D, what % of first-time players
-	// on D ever came back (i.e. totalCompletions >= 2)?
-	const dailyNewPlayerReturn = new Map<string, { cohort: number; returned: number }>();
-	for (const r of firstDates) {
-		if (!r.firstDate) continue;
-		const existing = dailyNewPlayerReturn.get(r.firstDate) ?? { cohort: 0, returned: 0 };
-		existing.cohort++;
-		if (r.totalCompletions >= 2) existing.returned++;
-		dailyNewPlayerReturn.set(r.firstDate, existing);
-	}
-
-	// Build chronological array of daily rates (oldest first, days 60→1 ago)
-	// Days with fewer than 3 new players get rate=null to exclude from rolling avg
-	const dailyReturnRates: { date: string; cohort: number; rate: number | null }[] = [];
-	for (let i = 60; i >= 1; i--) {
-		const dateD = estDateStr(i);
-		const d = dailyNewPlayerReturn.get(dateD);
-		dailyReturnRates.push({
-			date: dateD,
-			cohort: d?.cohort ?? 0,
-			rate: d && d.cohort >= 3 ? Math.round((d.returned / d.cohort) * 1000) / 10 : null
-		});
-	}
-
-	// 7-day trailing rolling average of the daily rates
-	// Index 0 = 60 days ago, index 59 = yesterday
-	const newPlayerReturnSeries = dailyReturnRates.map((r, idx) => {
-		const window = dailyReturnRates
-			.slice(Math.max(0, idx - 6), idx + 1)
-			.filter((d) => d.rate !== null);
-		const avg =
-			window.length > 0
-				? Math.round((window.reduce((sum, d) => sum + (d.rate ?? 0), 0) / window.length) * 10) /
-					10
-				: null;
-		return { date: r.date, cohort: r.cohort, rate: r.rate, rollingAvg: avg };
-	});
-
-	// Velocity: avg of last 7 complete days (idx 53–59) vs prior 7 (idx 46–52)
-	const recentWindow = newPlayerReturnSeries.slice(53).filter((d) => d.rate !== null);
-	const priorWindow = newPlayerReturnSeries.slice(46, 53).filter((d) => d.rate !== null);
-	const current7dReturnAvg =
-		recentWindow.length > 0
-			? Math.round(
-					(recentWindow.reduce((a, d) => a + (d.rate ?? 0), 0) / recentWindow.length) * 10
-				) / 10
-			: null;
-	const prior7dReturnAvg =
-		priorWindow.length > 0
-			? Math.round(
-					(priorWindow.reduce((a, d) => a + (d.rate ?? 0), 0) / priorWindow.length) * 10
-				) / 10
-			: null;
-	const returnRateChange =
-		current7dReturnAvg !== null && prior7dReturnAvg !== null
-			? Math.round((current7dReturnAvg - prior7dReturnAvg) * 10) / 10
-			: null;
-
-	// ── Retention over time ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
-	// For each cohort day D, retention = % of that day's players who played
-	// again within the next N days. Only compute for days where D+N is in the past.
-
-	function retentionSeries(
-		windowDays: number,
-		seriesLength: number
-	): { date: string; rate: number; cohortSize: number }[] {
-		// Earliest computable cohort day: today - (windowDays + 1)
-		// We use index windowDays+1 through windowDays+seriesLength
-		const series: { date: string; rate: number; cohortSize: number }[] = [];
-		for (let i = windowDays + 1; i <= windowDays + seriesLength; i++) {
-			const dateD = estDateStr(i);
-			const cohort = dateUsersMap.get(dateD);
-			if (!cohort || cohort.size < 3) continue; // skip tiny cohorts
-			let retained = 0;
-			for (const userId of cohort) {
-				if (dateUsersMap.get(addDays(dateD, windowDays))?.has(userId)) {
-					retained++;
-				}
-			}
-			series.push({
-				date: dateD,
-				rate: Math.round((retained / cohort.size) * 1000) / 10,
-				cohortSize: cohort.size
-			});
-		}
-		return series; // newest first (loop iterates i from smallest = most recent)
-	}
-
-	const retention7dSeries = retentionSeries(7, 30);
-	const retention30dSeries = retentionSeries(30, 30);
-
-	// ── Weekly Active Users history (12 weeks) ────────────────────────────────
-
-	const wauWeeks: { weekStart: string; weekEnd: string; wau: number; changePct: number | null }[] = [];
-
-	for (let w = 0; w < 12; w++) {
-		const weekEnd = estDateStr(w * 7);
-		const weekStart = estDateStr(w * 7 + 6);
-		const users = new Set<string>();
-		for (const row of recentCompletions) {
-			if (row.date >= weekStart && row.date <= weekEnd) {
-				users.add(row.anonymousId);
-			}
-		}
-		wauWeeks.push({ weekEnd, weekStart, wau: users.size, changePct: null });
-	}
-
-	// Change % vs prior week (index i+1 is the older week)
-	for (let i = 0; i < wauWeeks.length - 1; i++) {
-		const prev = wauWeeks[i + 1].wau;
-		if (prev > 0) {
-			wauWeeks[i].changePct = Math.round(((wauWeeks[i].wau - prev) / prev) * 1000) / 10;
-		}
-	}
-
-	const avgWau = Math.round(wauWeeks.reduce((sum, w) => sum + w.wau, 0) / wauWeeks.length);
-
-	// ── Monthly Active Users history (6 months) ───────────────────────────────
-
-	const sixMonthsAgo = estDateStr(185);
-	const mauCompletions = await db
-		.select({ anonymousId: dailyCompletions.anonymousId, date: dailyCompletions.date })
-		.from(dailyCompletions)
-		.where(gte(dailyCompletions.date, sixMonthsAgo));
-
-	// Rolling 30-day windows
-	const mauMonths: { monthStart: string; monthEnd: string; mau: number; changePct: number | null }[] = [];
-	for (let m = 0; m < 6; m++) {
-		const monthEnd = estDateStr(m * 30);
-		const monthStart = estDateStr(m * 30 + 29);
-		const users = new Set<string>();
-		for (const row of mauCompletions) {
-			if (row.date >= monthStart && row.date <= monthEnd) {
-				users.add(row.anonymousId);
-			}
-		}
-		mauMonths.push({ monthStart, monthEnd, mau: users.size, changePct: null });
-	}
-	for (let i = 0; i < mauMonths.length - 1; i++) {
-		const prev = mauMonths[i + 1].mau;
-		if (prev > 0) {
-			mauMonths[i].changePct = Math.round(((mauMonths[i].mau - prev) / prev) * 1000) / 10;
-		}
-	}
-
-	// Calendar month windows
-	const MONTH_NAMES = ['Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec'];
-	const [todayYear, todayMonth, todayDay] = todayEst.split('-').map(Number);
-
-	const calendarMauMonths: {
-		label: string;
-		monthStart: string;
-		monthEnd: string;
-		mau: number;
-		daysElapsed: number;
-		daysInMonth: number;
-		projectedMau: number | null;
-		changePct: number | null;
-		isCurrentMonth: boolean;
-	}[] = [];
-
-	for (let i = 0; i < 6; i++) {
-		let mo = todayMonth - i;
-		let yr = todayYear;
-		if (mo <= 0) { mo += 12; yr--; }
-
-		// new Date(yr, mo, 0) gives last day of month mo (1-indexed) in local time
-		const daysInMonth = new Date(yr, mo, 0).getDate();
-		const monthStart = `${yr}-${String(mo).padStart(2, '0')}-01`;
-		const monthEnd = `${yr}-${String(mo).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(daysInMonth).padStart(2, '0')}`;
-		const isCurrentMonth = i === 0;
-		const daysElapsed = isCurrentMonth ? todayDay : daysInMonth;
-		const queryEnd = isCurrentMonth ? todayEst : monthEnd;
-
-		const users = new Set<string>();
-		for (const row of mauCompletions) {
-			if (row.date >= monthStart && row.date <= queryEnd) {
-				users.add(row.anonymousId);
-			}
-		}
-
-		const projectedMau = isCurrentMonth && daysElapsed > 0
-			? Math.round(users.size * (daysInMonth / daysElapsed))
-			: null;
-
-		calendarMauMonths.push({
-			label: `${MONTH_NAMES[mo - 1]} ${yr}`,
-			monthStart,
-			monthEnd,
-			mau: users.size,
-			daysElapsed,
-			daysInMonth,
-			projectedMau,
-			changePct: null,
-			isCurrentMonth
-		});
-	}
-
-	for (let i = 0; i < calendarMauMonths.length - 1; i++) {
-		const curr = calendarMauMonths[i];
-		const prev = calendarMauMonths[i + 1];
-		if (prev.mau > 0) {
-			const compareVal = curr.projectedMau ?? curr.mau;
-			curr.changePct = Math.round(((compareVal - prev.mau) / prev.mau) * 1000) / 10;
-		}
-	}
+	const todayEst = new Date().toLocaleDateString('en-CA', { timeZone: 'America/New_York' });
+	const yesterday = addDays(todayEst, -1);
+	const snapshot = await ensureSnapshot(yesterday);
+	const payload = snapshot.payload;
 
 	return {
-		todayEst,
-		sessionDepthCards,
-		stats: {
-			todayCount,
-			totalCount,
-			uniquePlayers,
-			weeklyPlayers,
-			activeStreaks,
-			avgGuessesToday,
-			registeredUsers,
-			monthlyPlayers
-		},
-		growth: {
-			completionsVelocity,
-			completionsAcceleration,
-			userVelocity,
-			userAcceleration,
-			newUsers7d,
-			churned7d,
-			netGrowth7d
-		},
-		last14Days,
-		streakChart,
-		retention7dSeries,
-		retention30dSeries,
-		overallReturnRate,
-		newPlayerReturnSeries: newPlayerReturnSeries.slice(-30).reverse(),
-		newPlayerReturnVelocity: {
-			current7dAvg: current7dReturnAvg,
-			prior7dAvg: prior7dReturnAvg,
-			change: returnRateChange
-		},
-		wauWeeks,
-		avgWau,
-		mauMonths,
-		calendarMauMonths
+		asOfDate: payload.asOfDate,
+		completions: payload.totals.completions,
+		players: payload.totals.players,
+		weeklyPlayers: payload.activity.wau,
+		monthlyPlayers: payload.activity.mau,
+		yesterdayCompletions: payload.totals.yesterdayCompletions,
+		yesterdayAvgGuesses: payload.totals.yesterdayAvgGuesses,
+		calendar: payload.habit.calendar.slice(-30)
 	};
-};
+};

src/routes/global/+page.svelte

@@ -1,627 +1,56 @@
 <script lang="ts">
-	import Container from "$lib/components/Container.svelte";
-	import CollapsibleTable from "$lib/components/CollapsibleTable.svelte";
-
-	interface Stats {
-		todayCount: number;
-		totalCount: number;
-		uniquePlayers: number;
-		weeklyPlayers: number;
-		activeStreaks: number;
-		avgGuessesToday: number | null;
-		registeredUsers: number;
-		monthlyPlayers: number;
-	}
-
-	interface PageData {
-		todayEst: string;
-		stats: Stats;
-		last14Days: { date: string; count: number }[];
-		streakChart: { days: number; count: number }[];
-		growth: {
-			completionsVelocity: number;
-			completionsAcceleration: number;
-			userVelocity: number;
-			userAcceleration: number;
-			newUsers7d: number;
-			churned7d: number;
-			netGrowth7d: number;
-		};
-		retention7dSeries: { date: string; rate: number; cohortSize: number }[];
-		retention30dSeries: {
-			date: string;
-			rate: number;
-			cohortSize: number;
-		}[];
-		overallReturnRate: number | null;
-		newPlayerReturnSeries: {
-			date: string;
-			cohort: number;
-			rate: number | null;
-			rollingAvg: number | null;
-		}[];
-		newPlayerReturnVelocity: {
-			current7dAvg: number | null;
-			prior7dAvg: number | null;
-			change: number | null;
-		};
-		wauWeeks: {
-			weekStart: string;
-			weekEnd: string;
-			wau: number;
-			changePct: number | null;
-		}[];
-		avgWau: number;
-		mauMonths: { monthStart: string; monthEnd: string; mau: number; changePct: number | null }[];
-		calendarMauMonths: {
-			label: string;
-			monthStart: string;
-			monthEnd: string;
-			mau: number;
-			daysElapsed: number;
-			daysInMonth: number;
-			projectedMau: number | null;
-			changePct: number | null;
-			isCurrentMonth: boolean;
-		}[];
-		sessionDepthCards: { depth: number; players: number; returnRate: number | null }[];
-	}
+	import type { PageData } from './$types';
+	import Container from '$lib/components/Container.svelte';
+	import CalendarHeatmap from '$lib/components/charts/CalendarHeatmap.svelte';
+	import { formatDateLabel, numOrDash } from '$lib/utils/stats-format';
 
 	let { data }: { data: PageData } = $props();
-
-	const {
-		stats,
-		last14Days,
-		todayEst,
-		streakChart,
-		growth,
-		retention7dSeries,
-		retention30dSeries,
-		overallReturnRate,
-		newPlayerReturnSeries,
-		newPlayerReturnVelocity,
-		wauWeeks,
-		avgWau,
-		mauMonths,
-		calendarMauMonths,
-		sessionDepthCards,
-	} = $derived(data);
-
-	let mauMode = $state<'rolling' | 'calendar'>('rolling');
-
-	function signed(n: number, unit = ""): string {
-		if (n > 0) return `+${n}${unit}`;
-		if (n < 0) return `${n}${unit}`;
-		return `0${unit}`;
-	}
-
-	function trendColor(n: number): string {
-		if (n > 0) return "text-green-400";
-		if (n < 0) return "text-red-400";
-		return "text-gray-400";
-	}
-
-	const maxCount = $derived(Math.max(1, ...last14Days.map((d) => d.count)));
-	const maxWau = $derived(Math.max(1, ...wauWeeks.map((w) => w.wau)));
-	const maxStreakCount = $derived(Math.max(1, ...streakChart.map((r) => r.count)));
-	const maxMau = $derived(Math.max(1, ...mauMonths.map((m) => m.mau)));
-	const maxCalMau = $derived(Math.max(1, ...calendarMauMonths.map((m) => m.projectedMau ?? m.mau)));
-
-	const statCards = $derived([
-		{ label: "Completions Today", value: String(stats.todayCount) },
-		{ label: "All-Time Completions", value: String(stats.totalCount) },
-		{ label: "Unique Players", value: String(stats.uniquePlayers) },
-		{ label: "Players This Week", value: String(stats.weeklyPlayers) },
-		{ label: "Active Streaks", value: String(stats.activeStreaks) },
-		{ label: "Registered Users", value: String(stats.registeredUsers) },
-		{ label: "Players This Month", value: String(stats.monthlyPlayers) },
-		{
-			label: "Overall Return Rate",
-			value: overallReturnRate != null ? `${overallReturnRate}%` : "N/A",
-		},
-	]);
-
-	const mauModes = [
-		{ value: 'rolling', label: 'Rolling 30d' },
-		{ value: 'calendar', label: 'Calendar' },
-	];
 </script>
 
 <svelte:head>
-	<title>Global Stats | Bibdle</title>
+	<title>Community Stats | Bibdle</title>
+	<meta name="description" content="Bibdle community statistics, as of yesterday." />
 </svelte:head>
 
-<div
-	class="min-h-screen bg-linear-to-br from-gray-900 via-slate-900 to-gray-900 text-gray-100"
->
-	<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto px-4 py-8">
-		<a
-			href="/"
-			class="inline-flex items-center gap-1 text-gray-400 hover:text-gray-100 text-sm mb-6 transition-colors"
-		>
-			← Back to Game
-		</a>
-
-		<header class="mb-8">
-			<h1 class="text-3xl font-bold text-gray-100">Global Stats</h1>
-			<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm mt-1">
-				EST reference date: {todayEst}
-			</p>
-		</header>
-
-		<section
-			class="grid grid-cols-2 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4 mb-10"
-		>
-			{#each statCards as card (card.label)}
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>{card.label}</span
-					>
-					<span class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-gray-100"
-						>{card.value}</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-			{/each}
-		</section>
-
-		<section class="mb-10">
-			<h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-100 mb-4">
-				Traffic &amp; Growth <span
-					class="text-xs font-normal text-gray-400"
-					>(7-day windows)</span
-				>
-			</h2>
-			<div class="grid grid-cols-2 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>Completions Velocity</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center {trendColor(
-							growth.completionsVelocity,
-						)}">{signed(growth.completionsVelocity, "/day")}</span
-					>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>vs prior 7 days</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>Completions Accel.</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center {trendColor(
-							growth.completionsAcceleration,
-						)}"
-						>{signed(growth.completionsAcceleration, "/day")}</span
-					>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>rate of change of velocity</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>User Velocity</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center {trendColor(
-							growth.userVelocity,
-						)}">{signed(growth.userVelocity)}</span
-					>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>unique players, wk/wk</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>User Acceleration</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center {trendColor(
-							growth.userAcceleration,
-						)}">{signed(growth.userAcceleration)}</span
-					>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>rate of change of user velocity</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>New Players (7d)</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center {trendColor(
-							growth.newUsers7d,
-						)}">{String(growth.newUsers7d)}</span
-					>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>first-time players</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>Churned (7d)</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center {trendColor(
-							0,
-						)}">{String(growth.churned7d)}</span
-					>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>played wk prior, not this wk</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>Net Growth (7d)</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center {trendColor(
-							growth.netGrowth7d,
-						)}">{signed(growth.netGrowth7d)}</span
-					>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>new minus churned</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-			</div>
-		</section>
-
-		<section class="mb-10">
-			<h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-100 mb-1">Survival Curve</h2>
-			<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm mb-4">
-				Of players who completed N sessions, what % came back for N+1?
-			</p>
-			<div class="grid grid-cols-2 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-5 gap-4">
-				{#each sessionDepthCards as card (card.depth)}
-					<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-						<span class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-							>After {card.depth} plays</span
-						>
-						<span class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-gray-100">
-							{card.returnRate != null ? `${card.returnRate}%` : "N/A"}
-						</span>
-						<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-							>{card.players} players</span
-						>
-					</Container>
-				{/each}
-			</div>
-		</section>
-
-		<section class="mb-10">
-			<h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-100 mb-4">
-				New Player Return Rate <span
-					class="text-xs font-normal text-gray-400"
-					>(7-day rolling avg)</span
-				>
-			</h2>
-			<div class="grid grid-cols-2 sm:grid-cols-3 gap-4 mb-6">
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>Return Rate (7d avg)</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center text-gray-100"
-					>
-						{newPlayerReturnVelocity.current7dAvg != null
-							? `${newPlayerReturnVelocity.current7dAvg}%`
-							: "N/A"}
-					</span>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>new players who came back</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>Return Rate Change</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center {newPlayerReturnVelocity.change !=
-						null
-							? trendColor(newPlayerReturnVelocity.change)
-							: 'text-gray-400'}"
-					>
-						{newPlayerReturnVelocity.change != null
-							? signed(newPlayerReturnVelocity.change, "pp")
-							: "N/A"}
-					</span>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>vs prior 7 days</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-				<Container class="w-full p-5 gap-2">
-					<span
-						class="text-gray-400 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-center"
-						>Prior 7d Avg</span
-					>
-					<span
-						class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-center text-gray-100"
-					>
-						{newPlayerReturnVelocity.prior7dAvg != null
-							? `${newPlayerReturnVelocity.prior7dAvg}%`
-							: "N/A"}
-					</span>
-					<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 text-center"
-						>days 8–14 ago</span
-					>
-				</Container>
-			</div>
-
-			<CollapsibleTable
-				rows={newPlayerReturnSeries}
-				headers={[
-					{ label: 'Date' },
-					{ label: 'New Players', align: 'right' },
-					{ label: 'Return Rate', align: 'right' },
-					{ label: '7d Avg', align: 'right' },
-					{ label: '', width: 'w-32' },
-				]}
-			>
-				{#snippet row(item)}
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-300">{item.date}</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-400 text-xs">{item.cohort}</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-400">
-						{item.rate != null ? `${item.rate}%` : '—'}
-					</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-100 font-medium">
-						{item.rollingAvg != null ? `${item.rollingAvg}%` : '—'}
-					</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3">
-						<div class="w-full min-w-20">
-							{#if item.rollingAvg != null}
-								<div class="bg-sky-500 h-4 rounded" style="width: {item.rollingAvg}%"></div>
-							{/if}
-						</div>
-					</td>
-				{/snippet}
-			</CollapsibleTable>
-		</section>
-
-		<section class="mt-8">
-			<h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-100 mb-1">
-				Weekly Active Users
-			</h2>
-			<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm mb-4">
-				Unique players per 7-day window. Most recent week first. Avg
-				WAU: <span class="text-gray-100 font-medium">{avgWau}</span>
-			</p>
-			<CollapsibleTable
-				rows={wauWeeks}
-				headers={[
-					{ label: 'Week' },
-					{ label: 'Active Users', align: 'right' },
-					{ label: 'Wk/Wk Change', align: 'right' },
-					{ label: '', width: 'w-48' },
-				]}
-			>
-				{#snippet row(item)}
-					{@const barPct = Math.round((item.wau / maxWau) * 100)}
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-300 text-xs">{item.weekStart} – {item.weekEnd}</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-100 font-medium">{item.wau}</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-xs font-medium {item.changePct != null
-						? item.changePct > 0 ? 'text-green-400' : item.changePct < 0 ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-gray-400'
-						: 'text-gray-500'}">
-						{item.changePct != null ? signed(item.changePct, '%') : '—'}
-					</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3">
-						<div class="w-full min-w-24">
-							<div class="bg-indigo-500 h-4 rounded" style="width: {barPct}%"></div>
-						</div>
-					</td>
-				{/snippet}
-			</CollapsibleTable>
-		</section>
-
-		<section class="mt-8">
-			<h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-100 mb-1">Monthly Active Users</h2>
-			<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm mb-4">
-				{mauMode === 'rolling'
-					? 'Unique players per 30-day window. Most recent first.'
-					: 'Unique players per calendar month. Current month projected to end of month.'}
-			</p>
-
-			{#if mauMode === 'rolling'}
-				<CollapsibleTable
-					rows={mauMonths}
-					headers={[
-						{ label: 'Period' },
-						{ label: 'Active Users', align: 'right' },
-						{ label: 'Mo/Mo Change', align: 'right' },
-						{ label: '', width: 'w-48' },
-					]}
-					modes={mauModes}
-					bind:mode={mauMode}
-				>
-					{#snippet row(item)}
-						{@const barPct = Math.round((item.mau / maxMau) * 100)}
-						<td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-300 text-xs">{item.monthStart} – {item.monthEnd}</td>
-						<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-100 font-medium">{item.mau}</td>
-						<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-xs font-medium {item.changePct != null
-							? item.changePct > 0 ? 'text-green-400' : item.changePct < 0 ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-gray-400'
-							: 'text-gray-500'}">
-							{item.changePct != null ? signed(item.changePct, '%') : '—'}
-						</td>
-						<td class="px-4 py-3">
-							<div class="w-full min-w-24">
-								<div class="bg-teal-500 h-4 rounded" style="width: {barPct}%"></div>
-							</div>
-						</td>
-					{/snippet}
-				</CollapsibleTable>
-			{:else}
-				<CollapsibleTable
-					rows={calendarMauMonths}
-					headers={[
-						{ label: 'Month' },
-						{ label: 'Active Users', align: 'right' },
-						{ label: 'Mo/Mo Change', align: 'right' },
-						{ label: '', width: 'w-48' },
-					]}
-					modes={mauModes}
-					bind:mode={mauMode}
-				>
-					{#snippet row(item)}
-						{@const displayMau = item.projectedMau ?? item.mau}
-						{@const barPct = Math.round((displayMau / maxCalMau) * 100)}
-						<td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-300">
-							{item.label}
-							{#if item.isCurrentMonth}
-								<span class="text-xs text-gray-500 ml-1">(projected)</span>
-							{/if}
-						</td>
-						<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right font-medium {item.isCurrentMonth ? 'text-gray-400' : 'text-gray-100'}">
-							{#if item.isCurrentMonth}
-								<span class="text-gray-500 text-xs">{item.mau} → </span>{item.projectedMau ?? item.mau}
-							{:else}
-								{item.mau}
-							{/if}
-						</td>
-						<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-xs font-medium {item.changePct != null
-							? item.changePct > 0 ? 'text-green-400' : item.changePct < 0 ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-gray-400'
-							: 'text-gray-500'}">
-							{#if item.changePct != null}
-								{item.isCurrentMonth ? '~' : ''}{signed(item.changePct, '%')}
-							{:else}
-								—
-							{/if}
-						</td>
-						<td class="px-4 py-3">
-							<div class="w-full min-w-24">
-								<div class="bg-teal-500 h-4 rounded {item.isCurrentMonth ? 'opacity-50' : ''}" style="width: {barPct}%"></div>
-							</div>
-						</td>
-					{/snippet}
-				</CollapsibleTable>
-			{/if}
-		</section>
-
-		<section class="mt-8">
-			<h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-100 mb-4">
-				Last 14 Days — Completions
-			</h2>
-			<CollapsibleTable
-				rows={last14Days}
-				headers={[
-					{ label: 'Date' },
-					{ label: 'Completions', align: 'right' },
-					{ label: '', width: 'w-48' },
-				]}
-			>
-				{#snippet row(item)}
-					{@const barPct = Math.round((item.count / maxCount) * 100)}
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-300">{item.date}</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-100 font-medium">{item.count}</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3">
-						<div class="w-full min-w-24">
-							<div class="bg-amber-500 h-4 rounded" style="width: {barPct}%"></div>
-						</div>
-					</td>
-				{/snippet}
-			</CollapsibleTable>
-		</section>
-
-		<section class="mt-8">
-			<h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-100 mb-4">
-				Active Streak Distribution
-			</h2>
-			<CollapsibleTable
-				rows={streakChart}
-				headers={[
-					{ label: 'Days' },
-					{ label: 'Players', align: 'right' },
-					{ label: '', width: 'w-48' },
-				]}
-			>
-				{#snippet row(item)}
-					{@const barPct = Math.round((item.count / maxStreakCount) * 100)}
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-300">{item.days}</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-100 font-medium">{item.count}</td>
-					<td class="px-4 py-3">
-						<div class="w-full min-w-24">
-							<div class="bg-blue-500 h-4 rounded" style="width: {barPct}%"></div>
-						</div>
-					</td>
-				{/snippet}
-				{#snippet empty()}
-					<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm px-4 py-6">No active streaks yet.</p>
-				{/snippet}
-			</CollapsibleTable>
-		</section>
-
-		<section class="mt-8">
-			<h2 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-100 mb-1">
-				Retention Over Time
-			</h2>
-			<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm mb-6">
-				% of each day's players who played again exactly 7 or 30 days later (regardless of activity in between). Cohorts with fewer than 3 players are excluded.
-			</p>
-
-			<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
-				<!-- 7-day retention -->
-				<div>
-					<h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-gray-200 mb-3">
-						7-Day Retention
-					</h3>
-					<CollapsibleTable
-						rows={retention7dSeries}
-						headers={[
-							{ label: 'Cohort Date' },
-							{ label: 'n', align: 'right' },
-							{ label: 'Ret. %', align: 'right' },
-							{ label: '', width: 'w-32' },
-						]}
-					>
-						{#snippet row(item)}
-							<td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-300">{item.date}</td>
-							<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-400 text-xs">{item.cohortSize}</td>
-							<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-100 font-medium">{item.rate}%</td>
-							<td class="px-4 py-3">
-								<div class="w-full min-w-20">
-									<div class="bg-emerald-500 h-4 rounded" style="width: {item.rate}%"></div>
-								</div>
-							</td>
-						{/snippet}
-					</CollapsibleTable>
-				</div>
-
-				<!-- 30-day retention -->
-				<div>
-					<h3 class="text-base font-semibold text-gray-200 mb-3">
-						30-Day Retention
-					</h3>
-					<CollapsibleTable
-						rows={retention30dSeries}
-						headers={[
-							{ label: 'Cohort Date' },
-							{ label: 'n', align: 'right' },
-							{ label: 'Ret. %', align: 'right' },
-							{ label: '', width: 'w-32' },
-						]}
-					>
-						{#snippet row(item)}
-							<td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-300">{item.date}</td>
-							<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-400 text-xs">{item.cohortSize}</td>
-							<td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-100 font-medium">{item.rate}%</td>
-							<td class="px-4 py-3">
-								<div class="w-full min-w-20">
-									<div class="bg-violet-500 h-4 rounded" style="width: {item.rate}%"></div>
-								</div>
-							</td>
-						{/snippet}
-					</CollapsibleTable>
-				</div>
-			</div>
-		</section>
+<div class="mx-auto max-w-3xl px-4 py-8">
+	<div class="mb-6 text-center">
+		<h1 class="text-3xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-gray-100">Community Stats</h1>
+		<p class="mt-1 text-sm text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">As of {formatDateLabel(data.asOfDate)}</p>
 	</div>
-</div>
+
+	<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3 md:grid-cols-3">
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+			<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">All-time finishes</p>
+			<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-gray-100">{numOrDash(data.completions)}</p>
+		</Container>
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+			<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">All-time players</p>
+			<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-gray-100">{numOrDash(data.players)}</p>
+		</Container>
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+			<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">Players this week</p>
+			<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-gray-100">{numOrDash(data.weeklyPlayers)}</p>
+		</Container>
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+			<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">Players this month</p>
+			<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-gray-100">{numOrDash(data.monthlyPlayers)}</p>
+		</Container>
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+			<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">Yesterday's finishes</p>
+			<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-gray-100">{numOrDash(data.yesterdayCompletions)}</p>
+		</Container>
+		<Container class="p-4 w-full items-start text-left">
+			<p class="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">Avg guesses yesterday</p>
+			<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-gray-100">{numOrDash(data.yesterdayAvgGuesses)}</p>
+		</Container>
+	</div>
+
+	<Container class="mt-3 p-4 w-full items-stretch text-left gap-2">
+		<p class="font-semibold text-gray-900 dark:text-gray-100">Daily finishes (last 30 days)</p>
+		<CalendarHeatmap data={data.calendar} />
+	</Container>
+
+	<p class="mt-4 text-center text-xs text-gray-500 dark:text-gray-500">
+		Updated once a day from completed games. <a class="underline hover:text-gray-300" href="/">Play today's verse →</a>
+	</p>
+</div>

statistics-implementation-checklist.md

@@ -0,0 +1,369 @@
+# Bibdle Statistics Dashboard — Implementation Checklist
+
+**For:** an AI coding agent (or human) implementing the plan in `statistics-plan.md`.
+**Repository:** Bibdle — SvelteKit 2 · Svelte 5 (runes) · Tailwind 4 · Bun · SQLite + Drizzle ORM.
+**Rule:** read `statistics-plan.md` and `README.md` fully before starting. This checklist is ordered and dependency-aware; do tasks top to bottom unless a task says otherwise.
+
+---
+
+## 0. How to use this document
+
+- Each task has an **ID**, **Goal**, **Files**, **Steps**, **Acceptance**, and **Tests**.
+- Do **not** skip the Phase 0 foundations — every later phase depends on the schema and event log.
+- Prefer pure, testable functions in `src/lib/server/stats/*`; keep Svelte components presentational.
+- When a task is ambiguous, prefer the smallest reversible change and leave a `// TODO(stats):` comment rather than inventing behavior.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Guardrails (non-negotiable)
+
+1. **Do not add Umami or Rybbit integration.** The dashboard is self-contained and durable. Remove/ignore any Rybbit references you touch.
+2. **Do not query the DB on `/admin/stats` page load** except to (a) build a missing snapshot lazily, or (b) serve a `?mature=1` view. Normal loads read the stored snapshot only.
+3. **Point-in-time correctness:** snapshot computation for date `D` may only use rows with `date <= D` (and `completed_at` before end of `D`).
+4. **Plain language only.** No "velocity/acceleration/derivative" jargon in UI labels or captions. Every metric gets a one-sentence caption and a "what to do."
+5. **Privacy:** `/admin/stats` is gated to `ADMIN_EMAIL`. Never render emails or raw anonymous IDs. The public widget must expose no retention/churn/signup/revenue data.
+6. **Do not modify existing public routes** (`/`, `/progress`, `/stats`, `/imposter`, etc.) beyond the specific instrumentation hooks in Phase 0. Do not change the public `/global` until Phase 4.
+7. **No new runtime dependency except `layerchart`.** (Email digest would require `nodemailer`; it is out of scope unless the owner approves — default to the Discord webhook.)
+8. **Follow existing code style:** Svelte 5 runes (`$state`, `$derived`, `$effect`, `$props`, `$bindable`), Tailwind 4 utility classes, Drizzle query builder, `bun test` with `describe/test/expect`.
+9. **Migrations:** never hand-edit generated SQL. Use `bun run db:generate` and review the diff. Be aware the `drizzle/` journal references `0001_loose_kree` but that `.sql` file is absent on disk — do not "fix" this; just add new migrations on top.
+10. **Commit early and often**, one phase per logical commit set, message prefix `stats:`.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Environment & commands
+
+```bash
+bun install
+bun run dev                 # dev server
+bun run check               # svelte-check / TS
+bun test                    # all tests
+bun test tests/<file>.test.ts
+bun run db:generate         # generate migration from schema.ts
+bun run db:migrate          # apply migrations to DATABASE_URL
+```
+
+- `DATABASE_URL` (e.g. `dev.db`) drives the app DB.
+- `TEST_DATABASE_URL` drives `drizzle.test.config.ts`.
+- Existing env: `CRON_SECRET`, `DISCORD_DAILY_WEBHOOK`, `ADMIN_EMAIL` (hardcoded in `src/lib/server/admin.ts`).
+- **Add** `DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK` (digest target) to `.env.example` and `.env`.
+
+**Verification gate after every phase:** `bun run check` clean, `bun test` green, `bun run build` succeeds.
+
+---
+
+## Phase 0 — Foundations & instrumentation
+
+### T0.1 — Add tables and column to the Drizzle schema
+- **Goal:** add `stats_snapshot`, `analytics_events`, `dashboard_settings`, and `user.created_at`.
+- **Files:** `src/lib/server/db/schema.ts`
+- **Steps:**
+  1. Add `user.createdAt = integer('created_at', { mode: 'timestamp' }).$defaultFn(() => new Date())`. (`$defaultFn` means new rows get a timestamp automatically; existing rows stay `NULL` = "unknown".)
+  2. Add `statsSnapshot` (`date` text PK; `generatedAt` integer timestamp; `buildKind` text; `configVersion` text; `payload` text; `playerState` text; `config` text).
+  3. Add `analyticsEvents` (`id` text PK; `name` text; `anonymousId` text; `userId` text nullable FK → user ON DELETE SET NULL; `date` text nullable; `createdAt` integer timestamp; `metadata` text). Indexes on `(name, date)` and `(anonymousId, date)`; unique index `analytics_events_serve_unique` on `(name, anonymousId, date)`.
+  4. Add `dashboardSettings` (`key` text PK; `value` text; `updatedAt` integer timestamp).
+  5. Export inferred types.
+- **Steps:** run `bun run db:generate`, inspect SQL, then `bun run db:migrate`.
+- **Acceptance:** fresh migration applies cleanly to `dev.db`; `sqlite3 dev.db ".schema user"` shows `created_at`; all three tables exist.
+- **Tests:** none (schema only) — but run full suite.
+
+### T0.2 — Settings module (thresholds with env defaults)
+- **Goal:** a single source of truth for configurable thresholds.
+- **Files:** new `src/lib/server/stats/settings.ts`; new `src/lib/types/stats.ts` (types).
+- **Steps:**
+  1. Define keys with defaults: `core_plays_per_week` (4), `churn_days` (30), `resurrect_gap_days` (30), `at_risk_days` (8), `d1_target` (20), `return7_target` (25), `completion_target` (70), `first_try_min` (15), `first_try_max` (35), `share_target` (25), `active_window_days` (180), `anomaly_mad_threshold` (2).
+  2. `getSettings()` reads `dashboard_settings` and overlays env-var defaults (e.g. `STATS_D1_TARGET`). `updateSettings(partial)` upserts rows.
+  3. `configVersion()` = short stable hash of the resolved settings.
+- **Acceptance:** `getSettings()` returns defaults with an empty table; `updateSettings` persists and is reflected on re-read.
+- **Tests:** `tests/stats-settings.test.ts` — defaults, override, upsert, config hash stability.
+
+### T0.3 — Event recording module + client helper
+- **Goal:** a single, safe sink for analytics events (B/D/E/F).
+- **Files:** new `src/lib/server/stats/events.ts`; new `src/routes/api/events/+server.ts`; new `src/lib/utils/analytics.ts`.
+- **Steps:**
+  1. `recordEvent({ name, anonymousId, userId, date, metadata })` inserts into `analytics_events`. For `name === 'verse_served'`, use `INSERT OR IGNORE` (dedupe on unique index).
+  2. `POST /api/events` validates `name` against an allowlist (`verse_served`, `share`, `share_copy`, `first_visit`, `donate_click`, `discord_click`), caps metadata size, resolves `userId` from `locals.user` if present, and records. Return 204. Never throw to the client callers (fire-and-forget).
+  3. `src/lib/utils/analytics.ts` exports `track(name, metadata?)` that POSTs to `/api/events` with the lib's anonymous ID (read/create `bibdle-anonymous-id`), ignoring errors. Also export `getOrCreateAnonymousId()` and refactor `src/lib/stores/game-persistence.svelte.ts` to import it (avoid duplicated logic).
+- **Acceptance:** calling `track('donate_click')` writes one row; repeated `verse_served` for the same `(anon, date)` writes only once.
+- **Tests:** `tests/stats-events.test.ts` — allowlist rejection, metadata cap, verse_served dedupe, user attribution.
+
+### T0.4 — Instrumentation A: guarantee guess sequences for everyone
+- **Goal:** all completions persist `guesses`.
+- **Files:** `src/routes/api/submit-completion/+server.ts`, `src/routes/+page.svelte` (verify), `src/routes/+page.server.ts` (legacy form action).
+- **Steps:** confirm the client always sends `guesses`; ensure the API stores `JSON.stringify(guesses)` whenever the array is non-empty. Update the legacy `submitCompletion` form action to accept and store `guesses` too (or delete the dead action if unused). Do not backfill historical rows.
+- **Acceptance:** a guest completion POSTed with `guesses` stores the JSON; `SELECT COUNT(*) FROM daily_completions WHERE guesses IS NOT NULL` grows for guest IDs in dev.
+- **Tests:** extend `tests/stats.test.ts` or add `tests/stats-completion.test.ts`.
+
+### T0.5 — Instrumentation B: log "verse served" (game started)
+- **Goal:** measure started → completed.
+- **Files:** `src/routes/+page.ts`, `src/routes/api/daily-verse/+server.ts`, `src/lib/utils/analytics.ts`.
+- **Steps:** in `+page.ts`, read/create the anonymous ID before the fetch and include it in the `POST /api/daily-verse` body. In the endpoint, record `verse_served` (unique per anon+date). Keep the endpoint's response shape unchanged.
+- **Acceptance:** loading `/` records exactly one `verse_served` per browser per day, even after reloads.
+- **Tests:** `tests/stats-serve.test.ts` (endpoint logic with a test DB) + unit test for dedupe.
+
+### T0.6 — Instrumentation D: share / copy events
+- **Goal:** measure virality.
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/WinScreen.svelte`, `src/lib/utils/share.ts` (or call site).
+- **Steps:** fire `track('share', { snippet })` when the native-share path is used and `track('share_copy', { snippet })` on clipboard copy. Do not double-count the copy that happens inside `shareResult` fallback. Keep existing Umami `data-umami-*` attributes untouched.
+- **Acceptance:** clicking Share writes one `share` row; Copy writes one `share_copy` row; snippet flag correct.
+- **Tests:** manual + a small unit test on the helper if logic is extracted.
+
+### T0.7 — Instrumentation E: first-touch referrer / UTM
+- **Goal:** acquisition source.
+- **Files:** `src/lib/utils/analytics.ts`, root layout or `+page.ts`.
+- **Steps:** on first visit per browser (guard with localStorage key), capture `document.referrer` and `?ref=` / `?utm_source=` / `?utm_medium` / `?utm_campaign`, and record a one-time `first_visit` event with that metadata.
+- **Acceptance:** first visit with `?utm_source=bluesky` records one `first_visit`; subsequent visits do not.
+- **Tests:** unit test on the parsing/guard logic.
+
+### T0.8 — Instrumentation F: monetization clicks
+- **Goal:** patron funnel.
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/WinScreen.svelte` (Donate, Discord), `src/lib/components/SocialLinks.svelte` if desired.
+- **Steps:** fire `track('donate_click')` and `track('discord_click')` on click (keep the existing Umami attributes).
+- **Acceptance:** clicks record events with the right names.
+
+### T0.9 — Add `DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK` env
+- **Files:** `.env.example`, `.env` (local only), `README.md` env list.
+- **Acceptance:** documented; not required at boot (digest degrades gracefully when unset).
+
+**Phase 0 exit criteria:** migrations applied; events flowing in dev; `bun run check` + `bun test` green.
+
+---
+
+## Phase 1 — Core console (snapshot + Pulse + Signals skeleton)
+
+### T1.1 — Pure metric functions
+- **Goal:** tested, deterministic metrics independent of Svelte/DB reads.
+- **Files:** new `src/lib/server/stats/metrics.ts`, types in `src/lib/types/stats.ts`.
+- **Steps:** implement, each taking plain rows and a cutoff date:
+  - `activePlayers(completions, end, windowDays)`
+  - `newVsReturning(completions, date)` (returning = first-ever completion `< date`)
+  - `netGrowth(completions, end, windowDays, settings)`
+  - `d1Return(completions, cohortDate)` and `returnWithin(completions, cohortDate, n)`
+  - `cohortTriangle(completions, { start, weeks })`
+  - `timeToSecondPlayHistogram(completions, buckets)`
+  - `guessHistogram(completions, maxBucket)` + `firstTryRate`
+  - `streakSurvival(completions)`
+  - `bookCoverage(verses, completions, start, end)`
+  - `retentionByBook(completions, verses, minPlays)` and `retentionByGuessBucket`
+  - `entropy(bookCounts)`
+  - `weekdayHourHeatmap(completions)`
+- **Acceptance:** pure functions; no DB imports; correct on hand-built fixtures.
+- **Tests:** `tests/stats-metrics.test.ts` — one test per function incl. edge cases (empty, single player, day boundaries in UTC).
+
+### T1.2 — Segment derivation from stored player state
+- **Goal:** render-time configurable segments.
+- **Files:** new `src/lib/server/stats/segments.ts`.
+- **Steps:** define `PlayerState = { id, firstDate, lastDate, totalPlays, plays7, plays30, streak }`. `deriveSegments(playerState[], asOfDate, settings)` returns `{ new, returning, core, atRisk, churned, resurrected }` counts/sets. Keep it pure.
+- **Acceptance:** changing `core_plays_per_week` changes segmentation without recomputation from raw completions.
+- **Tests:** `tests/stats-segments.test.ts`.
+
+### T1.3 — Snapshot builder
+- **Goal:** compute and persist one snapshot for a date.
+- **Files:** new `src/lib/server/stats/snapshot.ts`.
+- **Steps:**
+  1. `buildSnapshot(asOfDate, { kind })`: query completions/verses/users with `date <= asOfDate`, compute all Phase-1 (and later-phase) aggregates, build `playerState` for active players in the trailing `active_window_days`, assemble `payload` JSON + `config` + `configVersion`, and `INSERT OR REPLACE` into `stats_snapshot`.
+  2. `getSnapshot(date)` reads a row. `ensureSnapshot(date)` builds with `kind: 'lazy'` if missing (guard against races: `INSERT OR IGNORE` then re-read).
+  3. `isSnapshotStale(date)` compares stored `configVersion` to current `configVersion()` (used to warn in UI; do **not** auto-rebuild unless triggered).
+- **Acceptance:** building 2026-09-14 twice is idempotent; the payload only reflects data ≤ 2026-09-14.
+- **Tests:** `tests/stats-snapshot.test.ts` — cutoff enforcement, idempotency, lazy race handling.
+
+### T1.4 — Snapshot endpoints
+- **Goal:** protected build trigger + admin read.
+- **Files:** new `src/routes/api/cron/build-stats/+server.ts`; optional `src/routes/api/admin/rebuild-stats/+server.ts`.
+- **Steps:** `POST /api/cron/build-stats` checks `Authorization: Bearer ${CRON_SECRET}`, builds **yesterday** (server `America/New_York`, matching `send-daily-verse`), then triggers the digest (Phase 4; no-op if not built yet). The admin rebuild accepts `{ date }` and requires `isAdmin`.
+- **Acceptance:** 401 without secret; builds yesterday with secret.
+- **Tests:** `tests/stats-endpoints.test.ts` — auth + date selection.
+
+### T1.5 — Admin route shell + auth gate + date navigator
+- **Goal:** `/admin/stats` renders a snapshot and can navigate time.
+- **Files:** new `src/routes/admin/stats/+page.server.ts`, `+page.svelte`, `src/lib/components/stats/DateNavigator.svelte`, `src/lib/components/stats/ConsoleChrome.svelte`.
+- **Steps:**
+  1. `+page.server.ts`: if `!isAdmin(locals.user?.email)` → 404 (mirror `/scheduled-verses` behavior). Resolve `date` from `?date=`; default = yesterday. `ensureSnapshot(date)`. Load settings + snapshot + (if `?mature=1`) a matured computation. Return `{ date, generatedAt, buildKind, payload, segments, settings, matured }`.
+  2. Layout: sticky header with `DateNavigator` (prev/next/date input), "Mature this view" toggle (link with `?mature=1`), link to Settings, and an as-of banner: *"Showing {date} · snapshot built {generatedAt}"*.
+- **Acceptance:** non-admin gets 404; admin sees the banner and can move between dates; days with no snapshot get lazily built (flagged `lazy`).
+- **Tests:** endpoint/load unit test where feasible.
+
+### T1.6 — Pulse lab
+- **Goal:** the 10-second read.
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/stats/Pulse.svelte`, `src/lib/components/charts/Sparkline.svelte`, `src/lib/components/charts/StatusPill.svelte`, `src/lib/components/charts/Gauge.svelte` (LayerChart).
+- **Steps:** render KPI cards (Players today, WAU, MAU, Core, Returning share, D1 return, Net growth) with same-weekday deltas and sparklines; a verdict banner from `signals.ts`.
+- **Acceptance:** all cards render from the snapshot payload with no live DB query; numbers match a manual query for a test date.
+
+### T1.7 — Signals engine skeleton
+- **Goal:** plain-language verdicts + actions.
+- **Files:** new `src/lib/server/stats/signals.ts`, `src/lib/components/stats/SignalsFeed.svelte`.
+- **Steps:** implement `evaluateSignals(payload, settings)` returning `{ id, severity, title, detail, action }[]`. Implement the six target rules from the plan plus a generic anomaly detector (trailing-28-day median + MAD, weekday-aware). Thresholds from `settings`.
+- **Acceptance:** synthesizing payloads produces expected severities; no jargon in strings.
+- **Tests:** `tests/stats-signals.test.ts`.
+
+### T1.8 — Settings menu
+- **Goal:** edit thresholds; re-segment instantly.
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/stats/SettingsMenu.svelte`, `src/routes/admin/stats/settings/+page.server.ts` (form action), or an inline panel.
+- **Steps:** form posts to `updateSettings`; on save, reload the same date (segments are re-derived from `player_state`, so no rebuild needed). Show a note: *"Changing these re-reads history; snapshots themselves are unchanged."* If `configVersion` differs from a snapshot's stored version, show an "outdated snapshot definitions" notice with a rebuild link.
+- **Acceptance:** changing `core_plays_per_week` updates Core counts across multiple past dates immediately.
+- **Tests:** settings module already covered; add a segment re-derivation test at two thresholds.
+
+### T1.9 — Metric glossary panel
+- **Goal:** plain-language definitions on the page.
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/stats/Glossary.svelte`.
+- **Steps:** render the glossary table from the plan, driven by a constant map so labels stay consistent.
+- **Acceptance:** every metric label used in charts has a glossary entry.
+
+**Phase 1 exit criteria:** `/admin/stats` shows Pulse + Signals for any date, snapshot-only loads, settings work, LayerChart installed.
+
+---
+
+## Phase 2 — Retention Lab & Growth Loop
+
+### T2.1 — Add LayerChart
+- **Files:** `package.json` (`bun add layerchart`), lockfile.
+- **Acceptance:** `bun run build` succeeds; a trivial `<LineChart>` renders.
+
+### T2.2 — Retention Lab
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/stats/RetentionLab.svelte`, charts: `CohortHeatmap.svelte`, `Histogram.svelte`, `StackedArea.svelte`, `BoxPlot.svelte`.
+- **Steps:** cohort triangle heatmap (weekly cohorts, toggle daily), D1/D7/D30 curves as small multiples, time-to-second-play histogram, segment-mix stacked area, retention-by-segment box/grouped bars. Captions per plan; segments from `player_state`.
+- **Acceptance:** heatmap cells match a manual cohort calculation; captions plain-language.
+
+### T2.3 — Growth Loop
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/stats/GrowthLoop.svelte`, charts: `AnnotatedArea.svelte`, `Waterfall.svelte`, `Funnel.svelte`.
+- **Steps:** new-players/day area with 7-day MA; if manual annotations are added later, support marker pins (design the prop now, render none if absent); waterfall (new + resurrected − churned); lifecycle funnel (players reaching 1/2/5/10/25/50 plays); signup funnel using `user.created_at` + `verse_served`/completions.
+- **Acceptance:** waterfall components sum to net growth; funnel is monotonic non-increasing.
+
+### T2.4 — Mature view
+- **Files:** `src/lib/server/stats/snapshot.ts` (add `buildMatured(date)`), `+page.server.ts`.
+- **Steps:** implement on-demand matured computation (uses all data after `date` for cohort resolution) and clearly label it. Do not store matured results as snapshots.
+- **Acceptance:** `?mature=1` resolves old D7/D30 where possible; banner says "Matured — uses data after this date."
+
+**Phase 2 exit criteria:** Retention & Growth labs render from snapshots; mature toggle works.
+
+---
+
+## Phase 3 — Verse Mix Lab & Habit Lab
+
+### T3.1 — Verse Mix Lab
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/stats/VerseMixLab.svelte`, charts reuse `StackedBar`, `BubbleScatter.svelte`, `CoverageHeatmap.svelte`, `StepLine.svelte`.
+- **Steps:** mix balance (book/section/testament stack over time), 66-book coverage heatmap, freshness (repeat intervals + entropy line), retention-by-book bubble scatter, retention-by-guess-bucket, achievability band + step curve, regression alarm table, before/after curated-mix annotated comparison. Include the "giveaway detector" table (high first-try books/windows).
+- **Acceptance:** Revelation/Genesis flags as easy outliers and Micah as hard on the current data; captions explain each.
+
+### T3.2 — Habit Lab
+- **Files:** `src/lib/components/stats/HabitLab.svelte`, charts: `SurvivalLine.svelte`, `Ridgeline.svelte`, `CalendarHeatmap.svelte`, `WeekdayHourHeatmap.svelte`.
+- **Steps:** streak survival curve, streak length distribution, calendar heatmap, weekday×hour heatmap (note server-time caveat in the caption).
+- **Acceptance:** survival curve is monotonic; calendar matches completion counts.
+
+**Phase 3 exit criteria:** all five labs complete; page passes `bun run check`.
+
+---
+
+## Phase 4 — Delivery
+
+### T4.1 — Daily digest
+- **Files:** new `src/lib/server/stats/digest.ts`; call from `src/routes/api/cron/build-stats/+server.ts`.
+- **Steps:** after a successful build, compose ~6 plain lines (as-of date; DAU/WAU/MAU; new vs returning; D1; top signal; link) and POST to `DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK`. No-op with a log if unset. Never fail the build on digest failure.
+- **Acceptance:** running the cron locally posts the digest (or logs a skip); build still succeeds if the webhook errors.
+- **Tests:** unit test message composition.
+
+### T4.2 — Slim public community widget
+- **Files:** rewrite `src/routes/global/+page.server.ts` and `+page.svelte` (or create a `CommunityStats.svelte` embedded on `/about`).
+- **Steps:** read the **latest snapshot** and render only: all-time completions, players this week/month, yesterday's completions + average guesses, 30-day calendar heatmap. Label "as of {date}." No sensitive metrics. Mobile-friendly.
+- **Acceptance:** public page contains no retention/churn/signup/revenue figures; loads without heavy queries (reads snapshot).
+
+### T4.3 — Remove/replace any lingering `/global` references
+- **Steps:** update README route table and any nav links. Keep old `+page.server.ts` logic out of the new console.
+- **Acceptance:** README matches reality.
+
+### T4.4 — Docs & env
+- **Steps:** update `README.md` (routes, API, schema, env: `DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK`), and `todo.md` if relevant.
+- **Acceptance:** a new contributor can find `/admin/stats` and the cron endpoint from the README.
+
+**Phase 4 exit criteria:** digest + public widget live; docs current.
+
+---
+
+## Phase 5 — Deferred / roadmap (do not build unless approved)
+
+- **C — feature-usage events:** emit `mode_enter` (imposter/practice), `hint_reveal`, `progress_view`, `submit_verse_*`; add the Feature Impact panel.
+- **Manual marketing annotations:** small table + UI pins on the Growth Loop timeline.
+- **CSV/JSON export** of snapshot payloads.
+- **Email digest** (requires `nodemailer`).
+
+---
+
+## Cross-cutting requirements
+
+### C1 — Testing
+- All `src/lib/server/stats/*.ts` pure logic must have unit tests with fixtures (no real DB) where possible.
+- DB-touching functions tested against `TEST_DATABASE_URL`.
+- Maintain the phase verification gate: `bun run check && bun test && bun run build`.
+
+### C2 — Accessibility & mobile
+- Charts keyboard-navigable where interactive; provide text/table fallbacks for color-only heatmaps.
+- Responsive: KPI grid 2-col on mobile, charts fluid width; tables horizontally scrollable.
+- Respect the existing dark theme (`bg-white/10 dark:bg-white/5`, etc.) and the `Container`/`CollapsibleTable` components.
+
+### C3 — Performance
+- Snapshot build is a batch job; acceptable to scan tables. Page loads must not scan raw tables.
+- Keep `player_state` bounded (~180-day active window); JSON may be gzipped if it grows.
+
+### C4 — Copy & tone
+- Every chart caption ≤ 2 short sentences.
+- No metric named "rate of change," "velocity," or "acceleration."
+- Always include a comparison and a "what to do."
+
+---
+
+## Definition of Done (overall)
+
+1. `/admin/stats` is admin-only and serves a once-daily, as-of-yesterday snapshot without live DB reads.
+2. Any past date can be viewed (point-in-time), with `—` where data didn't exist.
+3. "Mature this view" works and is clearly labeled.
+4. All five labs + Pulse + Signals + Glossary render from snapshots using LayerChart; layouts are mobile-friendly.
+5. Segment thresholds are editable in-app and re-derive all history instantly.
+6. Instrumentation A/B/D/E/F + `user.created_at` actively record data.
+7. Daily digest posts; slim public widget shows only safe aggregates.
+8. `bun run check`, `bun test`, `bun run build` all pass; README/env docs updated.
+
+---
+
+## Appendix A — Snapshot `payload` shape (extend per phase)
+
+```ts
+interface SnapshotPayload {
+  asOfDate: string;
+  activity: { dau: number; wau: number; mau: number; core: number; returningShare: number; newPlayers: number; resurrected: number; churned: number; netGrowth: number };
+  dailySeries: { date: string; completions: number; newPlayers: number; started: number }[]; // last ~90d
+  kpis: { d1Return: number | null; return7: number | null; overallReturnRate: number; completionRate: number | null; shareRate: number | null; firstTryRate: number; avgGuesses: number };
+  retention: { cohorts: { weekStart: string; sizes: number[]; rates: (number|null)[] }[]; curves: { d1: Series; d7: Series; d30: Series }; timeToSecondPlay: Bin[]; segmentMix: { date: string; new: number; returning: number; resurrected: number; atRisk: number; churned: number }[] };
+  verseMix: { coverage: { bookId: string; days: number }[]; sectionMix: Series[]; entropy: Series; repeatIntervals: number[]; firstTryByBook: { bookId: string; plays: number; firstTryPct: number; avgGuesses: number }[]; retentionByBook: { bookId: string; d1: number; plays: number }[]; retentionByGuessBucket: { bucket: string; d1: number }[] };
+  habit: { streakSurvival: { length: number; p: number }[]; streakLengths: Bin[]; calendar: { date: string; count: number }[]; weekdayHour: number[][] };
+  signals: Signal[];
+}
+```
+
+## Appendix B — Event names (allowlisted)
+
+`verse_served` · `share` · `share_copy` · `first_visit` · `donate_click` · `discord_click`
+Metadata examples: share `{ snippet: boolean }`; first_visit `{ referrer, utm_source, utm_medium, utm_campaign }`.
+
+## Appendix C — Settings keys (defaults)
+
+| Key | Default | Meaning |
+|---|---|---|
+| `core_plays_per_week` | 4 | Core player threshold |
+| `churn_days` | 30 | Days inactive → churned |
+| `resurrect_gap_days` | 30 | Gap that makes a return "resurrected" |
+| `at_risk_days` | 8 | Days inactive → at-risk |
+| `active_window_days` | 180 | Player-state horizon stored per snapshot |
+| `d1_target` | 20 | D1 return target (%) |
+| `return7_target` | 25 | 7-day return target (%) |
+| `completion_target` | 70 | Started→completed target (%) |
+| `first_try_min` / `first_try_max` | 15 / 35 | Achievability band (%) |
+| `share_target` | 25 | Share rate target (%) |
+| `anomaly_mad_threshold` | 2 | Robust z-score cutoff |
+
+## Appendix D — Signal rule template
+
+```ts
+{ id: 'd1_return_low', severity: 'warn',
+  title: 'New players are not coming back',
+  detail: `D1 return is ${v}% (target ${t}%).`,
+  action: 'Test a "come back tomorrow" prompt on the win screen.' }
+```

statistics-plan.md

@@ -0,0 +1,340 @@
+# Bibdle Statistics Dashboard — Plan
+
+**Status:** design agreed with the project owner · **Supersedes:** the public `/global` dashboard
+**Deliverable:** a private, once-daily, point-in-time **Growth Console** at `/admin/stats`, plus a slim public community-stats widget.
+
+> **Implementing this plan?** Use the agent-ready task list in [`statistics-implementation-checklist.md`](./statistics-implementation-checklist.md). It is ordered, dependency-aware, and includes acceptance criteria and tests per task.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Why we're replacing `/global`
+
+`/global` was a good start but it is now a wall of aggregates and second derivatives ("completions velocity", "user acceleration") with **no verdict, no feature data, and no content data**. It answers *"did a number move?"* but not *"why, and what should I change?"*
+
+Three structural problems:
+
+1. **No "so what."** Every chart is descriptive. Nothing tells you what to improve, change, or add.
+2. **No product surface.** There is no read on features (modes, hints, sharing), funnels (started → completed → shared), or content (which books/verses help or hurt retention).
+3. **Wrong delivery.** It queries the DB on every load, shows partial "today" data, and offers no time machine.
+
+**Goal of the new console:** a product review you can skim in 60 seconds, ordered around the questions that matter, that ends every section with a plain-language verdict and recommended action — and that can be scrolled back to any past day.
+
+### Live baseline (pulled from bibdle.com/global, as of 2026-09-15)
+
+| Metric | Value |
+|---|---|
+| All-time completions | 31,775 |
+| Unique players (all-time) | 6,589 |
+| Registered users | 98 |
+| DAU / WAU / MAU | 102 / 363 / 852 |
+| Net player growth (7d) | ~flat (−1: 175 new vs 176 churned) |
+| Overall return rate (ever played 2×) | 22.8% |
+| 7-day new-player return rate | 12.2% |
+| Survival after 2 plays → 3rd | 67.2% |
+| 7-day / 30-day retention | ~61% / ~51% |
+| Difficulty | mean 4.13 guesses, median 3, **33.7% first-try** |
+| Easiest / hardest books | Revelation 1.34 avg / 83% first-try · Micah 7.84 avg / 12% first-try |
+
+**The core story:** acquisition is replacing churn but not growing. ~77% of all-time players played exactly once; the ~23% who return are very sticky. The leak is the **first session** (and possibly verse mix/achievability), not the endgame.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Decisions locked with the owner
+
+| # | Decision | Choice |
+|---|---|---|
+| 1 | Audience | **Private founder dashboard**, replacing `/global` internally. Reuse `ADMIN_EMAIL` gate (as `/scheduled-verses` does). |
+| 2 | Public presence | Keep a **slim public community-stats widget** (no sensitive/business data). |
+| 3 | Freshness | **Once-daily snapshot, "as of yesterday."** Page load never queries the DB. |
+| 4 | History | **Point-in-time by default, with a "Mature this view" toggle.** |
+| 5 | Snapshot storage | **Store one immutable snapshot per day** (fidelity + speed + no-data fallbacks). |
+| 6 | Config | Segment thresholds configurable at **render time** via a settings menu (env defaults). Requires storing compact per-player state in snapshots. |
+| 7 | Data sources | **Existing SQLite only.** No Umami, no Rybbit, self-contained and durable. |
+| 8 | North star | Lead with **DAU + MAU**, with **Core players (4+/7d)** as the durability signal. |
+| 9 | Signals | **Both:** explicit targets for ~6 core metrics + anomaly detection everywhere else. |
+| 10 | Charts | **LayerChart** (Svelte 5 native; verified `layerchart@2.5.0` peers `svelte ^5`). |
+| 11 | Tone | **Plain language.** Short factual sentences. No jargon, no paragraphs next to charts. |
+| 12 | Mobile | Must be **mobile-friendly**. |
+| 13 | Digest | **Scheduled daily digest** of the snapshot (Discord admin webhook default; email optional). |
+| 14 | Instrumentation approved | **A, B, D, E, F** + `user.created_at` (see §7). **C deferred** (roadmap). |
+
+**Design principles (apply to every chart):**
+- Every visual has a **plain-English caption** and, where useful, a **one-line "what to do."**
+- Never show a number without a **comparison** (previous period, same weekday, or baseline).
+- **Weekday-align** daily comparisons so weekends don't masquerade as growth.
+- Prefer **shape** over derivatives: show "players per day" and a trend line, not "acceleration."
+
+---
+
+## 3. Information architecture
+
+```
+/admin/stats
+├─ Global chrome: date navigator · "Mature this view" toggle · Settings · as-of banner
+├─ 1. Pulse                (10-second read + verdict)
+├─ 2. Growth Loop          (new · active · returning · churned · funnel)
+├─ 3. Retention Lab        (cohorts, curves, time-to-return, segments)
+├─ 4. Verse Mix Lab        (coverage, freshness, retention by book & difficulty)
+├─ 5. Habit Lab            (streaks, calendar, timing)
+├─ 6. Signals & Actions    (rule-based verdicts + recommended actions)
+├─ 7. Feature Impact       (stub until C is instrumented)
+└─ 8. Notes & Glossary     (plain-language metric definitions)
+```
+
+The header is a **time machine**: a date picker plus prev/next arrows, always labeled e.g. *"Showing 2026-09-14 (snapshot built 2026-09-15)."* Days before a metric existed show **"—"**.
+
+---
+
+## 4. The labs (what you see, why, and the chart type)
+
+Chart types in **bold**. Every section ends in a one-sentence verdict from the Signals engine.
+
+### 4.1 Pulse
+
+| Element | Plain-English caption | Chart |
+|---|---|---|
+| Players today | "People who finished yesterday's verse." + same-weekday change | **KPI card + sparkline** |
+| Players this week / month | "Distinct players in the last 7 / 30 days." | **KPI card + delta** |
+| Core players | "Players who finished 4+ times this week — your habit-holders." | **KPI card + trend** |
+| Returning share | "Of yesterday's players, how many had played before." | **KPI + mini stacked bar** |
+| D1 return rate | "Of people who played for the first time, how many came back the next day." | **KPI + gauge vs target** |
+| Net player growth (7d) | "New and returning players minus those who stopped." | **KPI + waterfall delta** |
+| Verdict banner | e.g. "Stable. Biggest leak: 88% of new players never return." | **status pill** |
+
+*Decision it informs:* which lab to open; whether the week was a win.
+
+### 4.2 Growth Loop
+
+| Element | Plain-English caption | Chart |
+|---|---|---|
+| New players per day | "First-time players each day." Annotated with HN/Bluesky/Discord posts. | **Annotated area + marker pins** |
+| Acquisition vs churn | "New + resurrected − churned = net." | **Waterfall** |
+| Lifecycle funnel | "Of everyone who ever played: how many returned 2×, 5×, 10×, 25×, 50×." | **Funnel** |
+| Retention curves | D1 / D7 / D30 over time. | **Small-multiple line** |
+| Signup funnel | "Of first-time players, how many created an account." (needs `user.created_at` + starts) | **Funnel / line** |
+
+*Decision it informs:* is the problem acquisition or activation; did a marketing post actually move retention, not just traffic.
+
+### 4.3 Retention Lab
+
+| Element | Plain-English caption | Chart |
+|---|---|---|
+| Cohort retention triangle | "Each row is a starting week; each column is weeks later. Darker = more came back." | **Heatmap** |
+| Time-to-second-play | "How many days until a first-timer plays again." | **Histogram** |
+| Segment mix over time | New · Returning · Resurrected · At-risk · Churned. | **Stacked area** |
+| Retention by segment | "Do account-holders / core players stick longer?" | **Box plot or grouped bars** |
+| Overall return rate | "Share of all players who ever played more than once." | **KPI + target** |
+
+*Decision it informs:* whether onboarding/notification changes bend retention; which segment is healthiest.
+
+### 4.4 Verse Mix Lab
+
+This lab treats **verse mix and appealability** (not raw difficulty) as the retention lever. Hard *and* easy days can both drive churn — one by frustration, one by boredom.
+
+| Element | Plain-English caption | Chart |
+|---|---|---|
+| Mix balance over time | "Are we spreading across all 66 books / 9 sections / 2 testaments?" | **Stacked bars / treemap** |
+| Coverage heatmap | 66 books × times featured. | **Heatmap** |
+| Freshness | "How often the same book or window repeats." (repeat interval + entropy) | **Histogram + line** |
+| Retention by book | For each book, the next-day return rate of players who got it. | **Bubble scatter** (x=plays, y=D1 return, size=first-try%) |
+| Retention by difficulty | "Do easy or hard days make people leave?" | **Line/grouped bars by guess bucket** |
+| Achievability band | First-try % and solve-by-N against a target band. | **Histogram + step line** |
+| Regression alarms | Books/windows whose cohort churns above average. | **Table with inline bars** |
+| Before/after the curated mix system | Same metrics pre- vs post-launch. | **Annotated line** |
+
+*Decision it informs:* whether the new curated verse-mix system works; which books/windows to retire or feature more; submissions policy.
+
+### 4.5 Habit Lab
+
+| Element | Plain-English caption | Chart |
+|---|---|---|
+| Streak survival | "If you've played N days in a row, how likely are you to play day N+1." | **Survival line** |
+| Streak lengths | Distribution of current streaks. | **Ridgeline / histogram** |
+| Calendar heatmap | Daily completions, GitHub-style. | **Calendar heatmap** |
+| Weekday × hour | When people play. (Note: `completedAt` is server time, approximate.) | **2-D heatmap** |
+
+*Decision it informs:* whether to invest in streaks, reminders, and Discord/content timing.
+
+### 4.6 Signals & Actions
+Plain-language cards, each: **metric · current vs target · trend · interpretation · suggested action.**
+> Example: *"D1 return is 12% (target 20%). Most first-timers never see day two. → Test a 'come back tomorrow' prompt on the win screen."*
+> Example: *"Revelation averages 1.3 guesses (83% first-try). Likely self-revealing text. → Exclude or down-weight for the curated mix."*
+
+### 4.7 Feature Impact (stub)
+Since feature-usage events (C) are deferred, this ships as a **"needs data"** panel listing exactly what would be shown once C is added (Imposter entries, hint reveals, progress-page visits, submissions).
+
+---
+
+## 5. Plain-language metric glossary (shown in the page)
+
+Each metric has a friendly name, a one-sentence definition, and a "what to do."
+
+| Metric | Plain definition | What to do if it's off |
+|---|---|---|
+| Players today | Finished the puzzle yesterday | Investigate content or traffic |
+| WAU / MAU | Played at least once in 7 / 30 days | Reach vs habit |
+| Core players | 4+ finishes this week | If falling, retention problem |
+| Returning share | Played before vs first time | Low = acquisition-heavy, leaky |
+| D1 return | First-timers who came back next day | The #1 activation lever |
+| Return rate (any) | Played again within N days | Onboarding quality |
+| Overall return rate | Ever played more than once | Overall stickiness |
+| Net growth | New + resurrected − churned | Is the base expanding? |
+| Completion rate | Started → finished | Friction/confusion (needs starts) |
+| Signup rate | Players who made an account | Account value |
+| First-try rate | Solved with no wrong guesses | Too high = giveaway; too low = brutal |
+| Share rate | Shares ÷ finishes | Virality (needs D) |
+| Streak survival | Chance a streak continues | Streak feature ROI |
+
+---
+
+## 6. Data model & architecture
+
+### 6.1 New tables (all additive)
+
+**`stats_snapshot`** — one immutable row per as-of day.
+| Column | Type | Notes |
+|---|---|---|
+| `date` | text PK | as-of date `YYYY-MM-DD` |
+| `generated_at` | integer | build time |
+| `build_kind` | text | `scheduled` \| `lazy` \| `reconstructed` |
+| `config_version` | text | hash of thresholds used at build |
+| `payload` | text (JSON) | all aggregate series/lab data |
+| `player_state` | text (JSON, gzip) | compact per-player state as of that day, for render-time segmentation |
+| `config` | text (JSON) | copy of thresholds used |
+
+**`analytics_events`** — generic, extensible event log (unlocks B/D/E/F now, C later).
+| Column | Type | Notes |
+|---|---|---|
+| `id` | text PK | |
+| `name` | text | `verse_served`, `share`, `share_copy`, `first_visit`, `donate_click`, `discord_click`, … |
+| `anonymous_id` | text | pseudonymous |
+| `user_id` | text, nullable | |
+| `date` | text, nullable | game date when relevant |
+| `created_at` | integer | server timestamp |
+| `metadata` | text (JSON) | referrer/utm, snippet flag, channel… |
+
+Indexes: `(name, date)`, `(anonymous_id, date)`. **Unique** on `(name, anonymous_id, date)` for `verse_served` (dedupes reloads → "players who started").
+
+**`dashboard_settings`** — key/value (e.g. `core_plays_per_week`, `churn_days`, `resurrect_gap_days`, `d1_target`, `first_try_band`, `share_target`). Env vars provide defaults; the settings menu writes here.
+
+**`user.created_at`** — new timestamp column (see §7).
+
+### 6.2 Snapshot build
+- **Trigger:** daily cron hits a protected `POST /api/cron/build-stats` (bearer `CRON_SECRET`, same pattern as `/api/send-daily-verse`). It builds yesterday's snapshot and sends the digest.
+- **Lazy fallback:** `/admin/stats` load builds a missing snapshot on demand (guarded against races, marked `lazy`).
+- **Backfill:** an admin action/script can reconstruct a date range from raw data (marked `reconstructed`).
+- **Computation cutoff:** only data with `date <= asOfDate` (and `completedAt` before end of that day) — guarantees point-in-time.
+- **Player state (for render-time config):** per player active in the trailing ~180 days, a compact tuple `[anonId, firstDate, lastDate, totalPlays, plays7, plays30, currentStreak]`. Thresholds applied at render time, so changing them re-segments **all history instantly** while the state stays frozen as of that day.
+- **Retention/pruning:** keep all snapshots (small); optionally prune `player_state` older than a configurable horizon later.
+
+### 6.3 "Mature this view"
+A toggle (off by default). When on, the selected date's metrics are recomputed on demand using data *after* that date (so old cohorts have resolved D7/D30), clearly labeled **"Matured — uses data after this date."** This is the only mode allowed to query the DB directly.
+
+### 6.4 Auth & privacy
+- `/admin/stats` gated to `ADMIN_EMAIL` via existing `src/lib/server/admin.ts`.
+- Aggregate-only rendering; never display emails or raw IDs. Anonymous IDs are pseudonymous.
+- `/api/stats` name already exists (per-user stats) — the new snapshot endpoints will use distinct names (`/api/admin/stats/...`) to avoid collision.
+
+### 6.5 Public community widget
+Redesigned slim `/global` (or an embeddable component) showing only: all-time completions, players this week/month, yesterday's completions and average guesses, and a 30-day calendar heatmap. **No** retention, churn, signup, or revenue data. Labeled "as of yesterday."
+
+---
+
+## 7. Instrumentation plan (approved)
+
+| ID | What | Where it wires in | Cost |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| **A** | Store guess sequences for **all** players | `src/routes/api/submit-completion/+server.ts` already persists `guesses` when provided; confirm the client always sends them and remove any conditional nulling. Historical rows stay null (correct point-in-time). | Tiny |
+| **B** | Log "verse served" (game started) | Client generates/reads `bibdle-anonymous-id` in `src/routes/+page.ts` and sends it in the `POST /api/daily-verse` body; endpoint records a `verse_served` event, unique per `(anonymous_id, date)`. Gives start→completion funnel and bounce. | Small |
+| **D** | Share / virality events | In `src/lib/utils/share.ts` / `WinScreen.svelte`, record `share` and `share_copy` events (with `snippet` flag) via a tiny client helper. Enables share rate + viral proxy. | Small |
+| **E** | Referrer / UTM capture | On first visit (client), read `document.referrer` and `?ref=`/`?utm_source=`; store a `first_visit` event keyed to the anonymous ID. Enables acquisition source. | Small |
+| **F** | Monetization clicks | Record `donate_click` and `discord_click` events from the win-screen/footer links. Enables the patron funnel. | Tiny |
+| **G** | `user.created_at` | Add column + set on signup in `src/lib/server/auth.ts` (and OAuth paths). Existing users show "unknown." Enables signup-per-day, time-to-signup, and the visitor→signup funnel. | Small |
+
+**Deferred (roadmap):** **C — feature-usage event log** (Imposter/hints/progress/submissions). The `analytics_events` table makes this a trivial follow-on; only the emit points need adding.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Signals engine (targets + anomaly detection)
+
+**Explicit targets (defaults; editable in Settings):**
+
+| Metric | Target | Red |
+|---|---|---|
+| D1 return rate | ≥ 20% | < 12% |
+| 7-day return (any) | ≥ 25% | < 15% |
+| Completion rate (started→finished) | ≥ 70% | < 55% |
+| First-try rate (achievability band) | 15–35% | > 45% or < 8% |
+| Share rate | ≥ 25% | < 15% |
+| Core players (4+/7d) | non-declining WoW | down ≥ 2 weeks |
+
+*Completion-rate and share-rate targets are placeholders until 2 weeks of new data exist.*
+
+**Anomaly detection (everything else):** compare each metric to its own trailing 28-day median (weekday-aware), flag moves beyond a robust threshold (e.g. > 2× MAD). Output is a plain sentence, not a chart annotation.
+
+Each rule = `{ metric, comparator, target, severity, interpretation, recommended_action }`. Stored as code (not user-editable), with thresholds from settings.
+
+---
+
+## 9. Chart inventory & LayerChart mapping
+
+| Chart | Used in | LayerChart approach |
+|---|---|---|
+| Sparkline KPI | Pulse | minimal `<LineChart>` |
+| Annotated area | Growth Loop | `<AreaChart>` + marker overlay |
+| Waterfall | Growth Loop | floating `<Bar>` segments |
+| Funnel | Growth Loop, signups | stacked `<Rect>`/`<Bar>` |
+| Cohort heatmap | Retention | `<Chart>` + grid of `<Rect>` |
+| Calendar heatmap | Habit, public widget | `<Chart>` + weekday×week `<Rect>` grid |
+| 2-D heatmap | Habit | `<Chart>` + `<Rect>` grid |
+| Bubble scatter | Verse Mix | `<ScatterChart>` with radius scale |
+| Histogram | Retention, Verse Mix, Habit | `<BarChart>` from binned data |
+| Step / survival line | Verse Mix, Habit | `<LineChart>` with step interpolation |
+| Ridgeline | Habit | stacked `<AreaChart>`/density |
+| Box plot | Retention | custom `<Rect>`+`<Line>` |
+| Stacked area / bars | Retention, Verse Mix | `<AreaChart>`/`<BarChart>` stacked |
+| Gauge / status pill | Pulse | custom `<Chart>` arc + badge |
+| Table with inline bars | Verse Mix, Signals | existing `CollapsibleTable` |
+
+**Rendering model:** the page fetches the day's snapshot once (already computed), then renders charts client-side. No live DB reads in the normal path → matches the "once per day" requirement.
+
+---
+
+## 10. Delivery: daily digest
+
+- Runs right after the snapshot build (same cron endpoint), once per day.
+- **Default channel:** a dedicated Discord admin webhook (`DISCORD_ADMIN_WEBHOOK`), reusing the existing webhook pattern. Optionally email later (note: `nodemailer` is **not** currently a dependency; adding email = adding a dependency).
+- **Content (plain, ~6 lines):** as-of date · DAU/WAU/MAU · new vs returning · D1 · the single top signal · link to `/admin/stats`.
+
+---
+
+## 11. Phasing
+
+| Phase | Scope |
+|---|---|
+| **0 — Plumbing** | Add `stats_snapshot`, `analytics_events`, `dashboard_settings`, `user.created_at`; wire instrumentation A/B/D/E/F; client event helper. |
+| **1 — Core** | Snapshot builder + cron/lazy; date navigator; Pulse; Signals skeleton; Settings menu; plain-language glossary. |
+| **2 — Retention & Growth** | Retention Lab (cohort triangle, curves, time-to-return, segments) + Growth Loop (waterfall, funnel, annotated area, signup funnel). |
+| **3 — Content & Habit** | Verse Mix Lab (coverage, freshness, retention-by-book/difficulty, before/after) + Habit Lab (streaks, calendar, timing). |
+| **4 — Delivery** | Daily digest; slim public community widget; "Mature this view". |
+| **5 — Roadmap** | Feature-usage events (C) + Feature Impact panel; manual marketing-event annotations; CSV/JSON export; optional email digest. |
+
+---
+
+## 12. Open questions / to finalize during build
+
+1. **Digest channel:** Discord admin webhook (default) vs. adding nodemailer for email.
+2. **Target values** in §8 — confirm after ~2 weeks of instrumented data.
+3. **Snapshot retention:** keep `player_state` forever vs. prune beyond a horizon.
+4. **Public widget placement:** standalone `/global` vs. a section on `/about` vs. both.
+5. **Manual marketing annotations** (nice-to-have, not in approved list): a tiny table to pin HN/Bluesky/Discord posts on the Growth Loop timeline.
+6. **C (feature-usage events):** decide when to add — the table is ready, only emit points remain.
+
+---
+
+## 13. Success criteria for this dashboard
+
+- You can answer, in under 60 seconds and without jargon: *are we growing, who's returning, and what's the one thing to fix?*
+- The console tells you whether a **verse-mix** change helped retention, not just whether guesses changed.
+- You can scroll to any past day and see what was true then, with honest "—" where data didn't exist.
+- Adding a future metric (e.g. feature events) requires only emitting events — no rebuild of the dashboard architecture.

tests/rss.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+import { describe, test, expect } from 'bun:test';
+import {
+	cdata,
+	escapeXml,
+	feedFingerprint,
+	formatRFC822,
+	formatReadableDate,
+	formatVerseText,
+	latestModification,
+	todayInTimeZone
+} from '$lib/server/rss';
+
+describe('RSS date formatting', () => {
+	test('formatReadableDate uses the calendar day, independent of server TZ', () => {
+		expect(formatReadableDate('2026-09-18')).toBe('September 18, 2026');
+		expect(formatReadableDate('2026-01-01')).toBe('January 1, 2026');
+	});
+
+	test('formatRFC822 emits a valid GMT timestamp', () => {
+		expect(formatRFC822('2026-01-15')).toBe('Thu, 15 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT');
+		expect(formatRFC822('2026-09-18')).toBe('Fri, 18 Sep 2026 04:00:00 GMT');
+	});
+
+	test('formatRFC822 handles daylight saving (EST -05:00 vs EDT -04:00)', () => {
+		// Winter: midnight New York is 05:00 UTC.
+		expect(formatRFC822('2026-01-15')).toContain('05:00:00 GMT');
+		// Summer: midnight New York is 04:00 UTC.
+		expect(formatRFC822('2026-07-15')).toContain('04:00:00 GMT');
+		// Never a bare, ambiguous abbreviation like EST/EDT.
+		expect(formatRFC822('2026-07-15')).not.toMatch(/\bE[SD]T\b/);
+	});
+
+	test('todayInTimeZone respects the reference timezone', () => {
+		// 02:00 UTC on the 23rd is still the evening of the 22nd in New York.
+		expect(
+			todayInTimeZone('America/New_York', new Date('2026-09-23T02:00:00Z'))
+		).toBe('2026-09-22');
+		// 04:00 UTC on the 23rd is midnight in New York.
+		expect(
+			todayInTimeZone('America/New_York', new Date('2026-09-23T04:00:00Z'))
+		).toBe('2026-09-23');
+	});
+});
+
+describe('RSS content fingerprint', () => {
+	const row = { date: '2026-09-18', reference: 'Leviticus 19:9-11', verseText: 'a' };
+
+	test('is stable for identical content', () => {
+		expect(feedFingerprint([row])).toBe(feedFingerprint([{ ...row }]));
+	});
+
+	test('changes when verse text changes', () => {
+		expect(feedFingerprint([row])).not.toBe(feedFingerprint([{ ...row, verseText: 'b' }]));
+	});
+
+	test('changes when the set of days changes', () => {
+		expect(feedFingerprint([row])).not.toBe(
+			feedFingerprint([row, { ...row, date: '2026-09-17' }])
+		);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('latestModification', () => {
+	const fallback = new Date('2026-09-18T00:00:00Z');
+
+	test('returns the newest createdAt', () => {
+		const older = new Date('2026-09-16T10:00:00Z');
+		const newer = new Date('2026-09-17T10:00:00Z');
+		expect(
+			latestModification([{ createdAt: older }, { createdAt: newer }], fallback)
+		).toEqual(newer);
+	});
+
+	test('falls back when rows have no timestamp', () => {
+		expect(latestModification([{ createdAt: null }], fallback)).toEqual(fallback);
+		expect(latestModification([], fallback)).toEqual(fallback);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('XML serialization helpers', () => {
+	test('escapeXml escapes all predefined entities', () => {
+		expect(escapeXml(`<a href="x">&'</a>`)).toBe(
+			'&lt;a href=&quot;x&quot;&gt;&amp;&apos;&lt;/a&gt;'
+		);
+	});
+
+	test('cdata splits embedded CDATA terminators', () => {
+		expect(cdata('a]]>b')).toBe('<![CDATA[a]]]]><![CDATA[>b]]>');
+	});
+
+	test('formatVerseText capitalizes and replaces trailing punctuation', () => {
+		expect(formatVerseText('for God so loved the world,')).toBe('For God so loved the world...');
+	});
+});

tests/stats-analytics.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+import { describe, test, expect } from 'bun:test';
+import { parseAcquisition } from '$lib/utils/acquisition';
+
+describe('parseAcquisition', () => {
+	test('extracts utm parameters and ref', () => {
+		const a = parseAcquisition('?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=launch', '');
+		expect(a.utm_source).toBe('bluesky');
+		expect(a.utm_medium).toBe('social');
+		expect(a.utm_campaign).toBe('launch');
+	});
+
+	test('falls back to ref for the source', () => {
+		expect(parseAcquisition('?ref=hn', '').utm_source).toBe('hn');
+	});
+
+	test('keeps an external referrer', () => {
+		const a = parseAcquisition('', 'https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1');
+		expect(a.referrer).toBe('https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1');
+	});
+
+	test('blank and whitespace values become null', () => {
+		const a = parseAcquisition('?utm_source=%20%20', '');
+		expect(a.utm_source).toBeNull();
+		expect(a.referrer).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	test('caps absurdly long values', () => {
+		const a = parseAcquisition(`?utm_source=${'x'.repeat(500)}`, '');
+		expect(a.utm_source!.length).toBe(256);
+	});
+});

tests/stats-digest.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
+import { describe, test, expect } from 'bun:test';
+import { composeDigest } from '$lib/server/stats/digest';
+import type { SnapshotPayload } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+const payload: SnapshotPayload = {
+	asOfDate: '2026-09-14',
+	activity: {
+		dau: 102,
+		wau: 363,
+		mau: 852,
+		core: 61,
+		returningShare: 38,
+		newPlayers: 20,
+		resurrected: 4,
+		churned: 25,
+		netGrowth: -1,
+		corePrevious: 60,
+		previous: null
+	},
+	dailySeries: [],
+	kpis: {
+		d1Return: 12.2,
+		return7: 18,
+		overallReturnRate: 22.8,
+		completionRate: null,
+		shareRate: null,
+		firstTryRate: 33.7,
+		avgGuesses: 4.1
+	},
+	retention: { cohorts: [], curves: { d1: [], d7: [], d30: [] }, timeToSecondPlay: [], segmentMix: [] },
+	verseMix: {
+		coverage: [],
+		testamentMix: [],
+		entropy: [],
+		repeatIntervals: [],
+		firstTryByBook: [],
+		retentionByBook: [],
+		retentionByGuessBucket: [],
+		achievability: []
+	},
+	habit: { streakSurvival: [], streakLengths: [], calendar: [], weekdayHour: [] },
+	growth: { lifecycleFunnel: [], signups: [] },
+	totals: { completions: 31775, players: 6589, yesterdayCompletions: 102, yesterdayAvgGuesses: 4.1 },
+	signals: [
+		{
+			id: 'd1_return',
+			severity: 'bad',
+			title: 'D1 return',
+			detail: 'D1 return is 12.2%, below the 20% target.',
+			action: 'Test a "come back tomorrow" prompt.'
+		}
+	],
+	meta: { hasStartedData: false, hasShareData: false, firstEventDate: null }
+};
+
+describe('composeDigest', () => {
+	test('includes the core numbers in plain language', () => {
+		const message = composeDigest(payload);
+		expect(message).toContain('2026-09-14');
+		expect(message).toContain('363');
+		expect(message).toContain('12.2');
+		expect(message).toContain('Top signal: D1 return');
+		expect(message).toContain('/admin/stats?date=2026-09-14');
+	});
+
+	test('is at most a handful of lines', () => {
+		expect(composeDigest(payload).split('\n').length).toBeLessThanOrEqual(6);
+	});
+
+	test('shows an em-dash for missing metrics', () => {
+		const message = composeDigest({
+			...payload,
+			kpis: { ...payload.kpis, d1Return: null, return7: null }
+		});
+		expect(message).toContain('D1 return —%');
+	});
+});

tests/stats-events.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
+import { describe, test, expect, beforeEach, afterEach } from 'bun:test';
+import { eq, and } from 'drizzle-orm';
+import { testDb } from '$lib/server/db/test';
+import { analyticsEvents } from '$lib/server/db/schema';
+import {
+	recordEvent,
+	isEventName,
+	encodeMetadata
+} from '$lib/server/stats/events';
+import { MAX_METADATA_BYTES } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+async function clear() {
+	await testDb.delete(analyticsEvents);
+}
+
+describe('analytics events', () => {
+	beforeEach(clear);
+	afterEach(clear);
+
+	test('allowlist accepts known event names and rejects others', () => {
+		expect(isEventName('verse_served')).toBe(true);
+		expect(isEventName('donate_click')).toBe(true);
+		expect(isEventName('not_a_real_event')).toBe(false);
+		expect(isEventName('')).toBe(false);
+	});
+
+	test('metadata is capped', () => {
+		const small = encodeMetadata({ utm_source: 'bluesky' });
+		expect(small).toBe('{"utm_source":"bluesky"}');
+		const big = encodeMetadata({ blob: 'x'.repeat(MAX_METADATA_BYTES + 100) });
+		expect(big).toBe('{"truncated":true}');
+		expect(encodeMetadata(null)).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	test('records a normal event', async () => {
+		const inserted = await recordEvent(
+			{ name: 'donate_click', anonymousId: 'anon-1' },
+			testDb
+		);
+		expect(inserted).toBe(true);
+		const rows = await testDb.select().from(analyticsEvents);
+		expect(rows).toHaveLength(1);
+		expect(rows[0].name).toBe('donate_click');
+	});
+
+	test('verse_served is deduped per player + date', async () => {
+		const first = await recordEvent(
+			{ name: 'verse_served', anonymousId: 'anon-1', date: '2026-09-01' },
+			testDb
+		);
+		const second = await recordEvent(
+			{ name: 'verse_served', anonymousId: 'anon-1', date: '2026-09-01' },
+			testDb
+		);
+		expect(first).toBe(true);
+		expect(second).toBe(false);
+		const rows = await testDb
+			.select()
+			.from(analyticsEvents)
+			.where(
+				and(
+					eq(analyticsEvents.name, 'verse_served'),
+					eq(analyticsEvents.anonymousId, 'anon-1')
+				)
+			);
+		expect(rows).toHaveLength(1);
+	});
+
+	test('other event names are not deduped', async () => {
+		await recordEvent({ name: 'share', anonymousId: 'anon-1', date: '2026-09-01' }, testDb);
+		await recordEvent({ name: 'share', anonymousId: 'anon-1', date: '2026-09-01' }, testDb);
+		const rows = await testDb.select().from(analyticsEvents);
+		expect(rows).toHaveLength(2);
+	});
+
+	test('user attribution is stored', async () => {
+		await recordEvent(
+			{ name: 'share_copy', anonymousId: 'anon-1', userId: 'user-9', metadata: { snippet: true } },
+			testDb
+		);
+		const [row] = await testDb.select().from(analyticsEvents);
+		expect(row.userId).toBe('user-9');
+		expect(JSON.parse(row.metadata!)).toEqual({ snippet: true });
+	});
+});

tests/stats-metrics.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,193 @@
+import { describe, test, expect } from 'bun:test';
+import {
+	activePlayers,
+	newVsReturning,
+	netGrowth,
+	d1Return,
+	returnWithin,
+	overallReturnRate,
+	streakSurvival,
+	timeToSecondPlayHistogram,
+	guessHistogram,
+	firstTryRate,
+	averageGuesses,
+	entropy,
+	repeatIntervals,
+	bookCoverage,
+	retentionByGuessBucket,
+	weekdayHourHeatmap,
+	cohortTriangle,
+	dailyCompletionsSeries
+} from '$lib/server/stats/metrics';
+import type { CompletionRow } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+function c(anonymousId: string, date: string, guessCount = 3, hour = 12): CompletionRow {
+	return {
+		anonymousId,
+		date,
+		guessCount,
+		guesses: null,
+		completedAt: new Date(`${date}T${String(hour).padStart(2, '0')}:00:00Z`)
+	};
+}
+
+// A: 3-day streak. B: plays day 1 and 3. C: one play. D: one play later.
+const fixture: CompletionRow[] = [
+	c('A', '2026-09-01'),
+	c('A', '2026-09-02'),
+	c('A', '2026-09-03'),
+	c('B', '2026-09-01'),
+	c('B', '2026-09-03'),
+	c('C', '2026-09-02', 1),
+	c('D', '2026-09-05', 6)
+];
+
+describe('activePlayers', () => {
+	test('window of 1 is just that day', () => {
+		expect(activePlayers(fixture, '2026-09-03', 1)).toBe(2); // A, B
+	});
+	test('window includes the trailing days', () => {
+		expect(activePlayers(fixture, '2026-09-03', 3)).toBe(3); // A, B, C
+	});
+	test('empty window returns 0', () => {
+		expect(activePlayers(fixture, '2026-08-01', 1)).toBe(0);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('newVsReturning', () => {
+	test('day one is all new', () => {
+		expect(newVsReturning(fixture, '2026-09-01')).toEqual({
+			newPlayers: 2,
+			returning: 0,
+			returningShare: 0
+		});
+	});
+	test('later days are all returning', () => {
+		expect(newVsReturning(fixture, '2026-09-03')).toEqual({
+			newPlayers: 0,
+			returning: 2,
+			returningShare: 100
+		});
+	});
+});
+
+describe('return rates', () => {
+	test('d1Return pools the cohort of first-timers', () => {
+		// A first on 09-01 and returned 09-02; B first on 09-01 and did not.
+		expect(d1Return(fixture, '2026-09-01')).toBe(50);
+	});
+	test('returnWithin counts any return in the window', () => {
+		expect(returnWithin(fixture, '2026-09-01', 2)).toBe(100);
+	});
+	test('small cohorts return null when minSize is set', () => {
+		expect(returnWithin(fixture, '2026-09-05', 1, 3)).toBeNull();
+	});
+	test('overall return rate = players with 2+ plays', () => {
+		expect(overallReturnRate(fixture)).toBe(50); // A & B of A,B,C,D
+	});
+});
+
+describe('netGrowth', () => {
+	test('new + resurrected - churned over the window', () => {
+		// Window 09-04..09-05: D is new; A,B,C played the preceding window and stopped.
+		const g = netGrowth(fixture, '2026-09-05', 2, 30);
+		expect(g.newPlayers).toBe(1);
+		expect(g.churned).toBe(3);
+		expect(g.netGrowth).toBe(-2);
+	});
+	test('a long gap counts as resurrected', () => {
+		const data = [...fixture, c('E', '2026-06-01'), c('E', '2026-09-05')];
+		const g = netGrowth(data, '2026-09-05', 2, 30);
+		expect(g.resurrected).toBe(1);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('streaks', () => {
+	test('survival probability per streak length', () => {
+		const survival = streakSurvival(fixture);
+		const byLength = new Map(survival.map((s) => [s.length, s.probability]));
+		expect(byLength.get(1)).toBe(20); // only A continued from day 1
+		expect(byLength.get(2)).toBe(100); // A continued to day 3
+		expect(byLength.get(3)).toBe(0); // A stopped after day 3
+	});
+});
+
+describe('histograms', () => {
+	test('time to second play buckets gaps', () => {
+		const bins = timeToSecondPlayHistogram(fixture);
+		expect(bins.find((b) => b.label === '1 day')?.value).toBe(1); // A
+		expect(bins.find((b) => b.label === '2 days')?.value).toBe(1); // B
+	});
+	test('guess histogram collapses the tail', () => {
+		const bins = guessHistogram(fixture, 5);
+		const total = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + b.value, 0);
+		expect(total).toBe(fixture.length);
+		expect(bins[bins.length - 1].label).toBe('6+');
+	});
+	test('first try rate and average guesses', () => {
+		expect(firstTryRate(fixture)).toBeCloseTo(14.3, 1);
+		expect(typeof averageGuesses(fixture)).toBe('number');
+	});
+});
+
+describe('content metrics', () => {
+	test('entropy of a uniform distribution is log2(n)', () => {
+		expect(entropy([1, 1, 1, 1])).toBe(2);
+		expect(entropy([])).toBe(0);
+	});
+	test('repeat intervals count gaps per book', () => {
+		const bins = repeatIntervals([
+			{ date: '2026-09-01', bookId: 'GEN' },
+			{ date: '2026-09-03', bookId: 'GEN' },
+			{ date: '2026-10-01', bookId: 'EXO' },
+			{ date: '2026-10-05', bookId: 'EXO' }
+		]);
+		expect(bins.find((b) => b.label === '1–7d')?.value).toBe(2);
+	});
+	test('bookCoverage returns a stat for every book', () => {
+		const stats = bookCoverage(
+			[
+				{ date: '2026-09-01', bookId: 'GEN' },
+				{ date: '2026-09-02', bookId: 'GEN' }
+			],
+			fixture,
+			{ start: '2026-09-01', end: '2026-09-03' }
+		);
+		expect(stats).toHaveLength(66);
+		const gen = stats.find((s) => s.bookId === 'GEN')!;
+		expect(gen.days).toBe(2);
+		expect(gen.plays).toBe(4); // A,B on 09-01 + A,C on 09-02
+	});
+	test('retention by guess bucket is grouped', () => {
+		const buckets = retentionByGuessBucket(fixture);
+		expect(buckets).toHaveLength(5);
+	});
+	test('weekday/hour heatmap has a 7x24 grid', () => {
+		const grid = weekdayHourHeatmap(fixture);
+		expect(grid).toHaveLength(7);
+		expect(grid[0]).toHaveLength(24);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('cohortTriangle', () => {
+	test('week 0 is the full cohort and later weeks are subsets', () => {
+		const rows = cohortTriangle(fixture, {
+			start: '2026-08-30', // Sunday
+			weeks: 3,
+			asOf: '2026-09-15',
+			minSize: 1
+		});
+		expect(rows).toHaveLength(3);
+		expect(rows[0].size).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+		expect(rows[0].counts[0]).toBe(rows[0].size);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('dailyCompletionsSeries', () => {
+	test('fills gaps with zeroes and counts new players', () => {
+		const series = dailyCompletionsSeries(fixture, '2026-09-01', '2026-09-03');
+		expect(series).toHaveLength(3);
+		expect(series[0]).toEqual({ date: '2026-09-01', completions: 2, newPlayers: 2 });
+		expect(series[2]).toEqual({ date: '2026-09-03', completions: 2, newPlayers: 0 });
+	});
+});

tests/stats-segments.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+import { describe, test, expect } from 'bun:test';
+import { deriveSegments, countSegments } from '$lib/server/stats/segments';
+import { SETTINGS_DEFAULTS, type PlayerState, type StatsSettings } from '$lib/types/stats';
+import { addDays } from '$lib/server/stats/dates';
+
+const AS_OF = '2026-09-15';
+
+function settings(overrides: Partial<StatsSettings> = {}): StatsSettings {
+	return { ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS, ...overrides };
+}
+
+function player(id: string, overrides: Partial<PlayerState>): PlayerState {
+	return {
+		id,
+		firstDate: addDays(AS_OF, -100),
+		lastDate: AS_OF,
+		totalPlays: 10,
+		plays7: 2,
+		plays30: 10,
+		streak: 2,
+		...overrides
+	};
+}
+
+const players: PlayerState[] = [
+	player('new', { firstDate: addDays(AS_OF, -1), lastDate: AS_OF, plays7: 1 }),
+	player('core', { lastDate: AS_OF, plays7: 5 }),
+	player('resurrected', { lastDate: AS_OF, plays7: 2, plays30: 2 }),
+	player('returning', { lastDate: AS_OF, plays7: 2, plays30: 10 }),
+	player('atRisk', { lastDate: addDays(AS_OF, -10) }),
+	player('churned', { lastDate: addDays(AS_OF, -40) })
+];
+
+describe('deriveSegments', () => {
+	test('classifies each lifecycle segment', () => {
+		const sets = deriveSegments(players, AS_OF, settings());
+		expect(sets.new).toEqual(['new']);
+		expect(sets.core).toEqual(['core']);
+		expect(sets.resurrected).toEqual(['resurrected']);
+		expect(sets.returning).toEqual(['returning']);
+		expect(sets.atRisk).toEqual(['atRisk']);
+		expect(sets.churned).toEqual(['churned']);
+		expect(sets.active).toEqual(['new', 'core', 'resurrected', 'returning']);
+	});
+
+	test('changing the core threshold re-segments without new data', () => {
+		const strict = deriveSegments(players, AS_OF, settings({ core_plays_per_week: 6 }));
+		expect(strict.core).toEqual([]);
+		expect(strict.returning).toContain('core');
+
+		const lenient = deriveSegments(players, AS_OF, settings({ core_plays_per_week: 2 }));
+		expect(lenient.core).toContain('core');
+		expect(lenient.core).toContain('returning');
+	});
+
+	test('counts include every player exactly once across mutually exclusive sets', () => {
+		const counts = countSegments(deriveSegments(players, AS_OF, settings()));
+		const activeTotal = counts.new + counts.core + counts.returning + counts.resurrected;
+		expect(activeTotal).toBe(counts.active);
+		expect(counts.total).toBe(players.length);
+	});
+
+	test('at-risk and churned boundaries follow settings', () => {
+		const sets = deriveSegments(players, AS_OF, settings({ at_risk_days: 5, churn_days: 20 }));
+		expect(sets.atRisk).toContain('atRisk'); // inactive 10 >= 5, < 20
+		expect(sets.churned).toContain('churned'); // inactive 40 >= 20
+	});
+});

tests/stats-settings.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+import { describe, test, expect, beforeEach, afterEach } from 'bun:test';
+import { testDb } from '$lib/server/db/test';
+import { dashboardSettings } from '$lib/server/db/schema';
+import {
+	getSettings,
+	updateSettings,
+	hashSettings,
+	envSettings,
+	settingsEnvVar
+} from '$lib/server/stats/settings';
+import { SETTINGS_DEFAULTS } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+async function clear() {
+	await testDb.delete(dashboardSettings);
+}
+
+describe('stats settings', () => {
+	beforeEach(clear);
+	afterEach(clear);
+
+	test('env var names map from keys', () => {
+		expect(settingsEnvVar('d1_target')).toBe('STATS_D1_TARGET');
+	});
+
+	test('empty table returns built-in defaults', async () => {
+		const settings = await getSettings(testDb);
+		expect(settings).toEqual({ ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS });
+	});
+
+	test('updateSettings upserts and is reflected on re-read', async () => {
+		await updateSettings({ core_plays_per_week: 7 }, testDb);
+		const settings = await getSettings(testDb);
+		expect(settings.core_plays_per_week).toBe(7);
+		// Updating again overwrites rather than duplicating.
+		await updateSettings({ core_plays_per_week: 2 }, testDb);
+		expect((await getSettings(testDb)).core_plays_per_week).toBe(2);
+	});
+
+	test('config hash is stable and changes with settings', () => {
+		const a = hashSettings({ ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS });
+		const b = hashSettings({ ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS });
+		const c = hashSettings({ ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS, d1_target: 99 });
+		expect(a).toBe(b);
+		expect(a).not.toBe(c);
+		expect(a).toHaveLength(12);
+	});
+
+	test('envSettings falls back to defaults with no env overrides', () => {
+		expect(envSettings()).toEqual({ ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS });
+	});
+});

tests/stats-signals.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
+import { describe, test, expect } from 'bun:test';
+import { evaluateSignals, detectAnomaly, sortSignals } from '$lib/server/stats/signals';
+import { SETTINGS_DEFAULTS, type SnapshotPayload } from '$lib/types/stats';
+
+function makePayload(overrides: {
+	kpis?: Partial<SnapshotPayload['kpis']>;
+	activity?: Partial<SnapshotPayload['activity']>;
+	dailySeries?: SnapshotPayload['dailySeries'];
+} = {}): SnapshotPayload {
+	return {
+		asOfDate: '2026-09-14',
+		activity: {
+			dau: 100,
+			wau: 300,
+			mau: 800,
+			core: 50,
+			returningShare: 40,
+			newPlayers: 20,
+			resurrected: 5,
+			churned: 18,
+			netGrowth: 7,
+			corePrevious: 45,
+			previous: { dau: 95, wau: 290, mau: 790, core: 45 },
+			...overrides.activity
+		},
+		dailySeries: overrides.dailySeries ?? [],
+		kpis: {
+			d1Return: 25,
+			return7: 30,
+			overallReturnRate: 22,
+			completionRate: 80,
+			shareRate: 30,
+			firstTryRate: 25,
+			avgGuesses: 4.1,
+			...overrides.kpis
+		},
+		retention: {
+			cohorts: [],
+			curves: { d1: [], d7: [], d30: [] },
+			timeToSecondPlay: [],
+			segmentMix: []
+		},
+		growth: { lifecycleFunnel: [], signups: [] },
+		totals: { completions: 0, players: 0, yesterdayCompletions: 0, yesterdayAvgGuesses: null },
+		verseMix: {
+			coverage: [],
+			testamentMix: [],
+			entropy: [],
+			repeatIntervals: [],
+			firstTryByBook: [],
+			retentionByBook: [],
+			retentionByGuessBucket: [],
+			achievability: []
+		},
+		habit: { streakSurvival: [], streakLengths: [], calendar: [], weekdayHour: [] },
+		signals: [],
+		meta: { hasStartedData: true, hasShareData: true, firstEventDate: null }
+	};
+}
+
+const settings = { ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS };
+
+describe('evaluateSignals', () => {
+	test('all-good payload yields no warn/bad signals', () => {
+		const signals = evaluateSignals(makePayload(), settings);
+		expect(signals.some((s) => s.severity === 'bad' || s.severity === 'warn')).toBe(false);
+	});
+
+	test('low D1 return is bad and recommends an action', () => {
+		const signals = evaluateSignals(makePayload({ kpis: { d1Return: 9 } }), settings);
+		const d1 = signals.find((s) => s.id === 'd1_return')!;
+		expect(d1.severity).toBe('bad');
+		expect(d1.action).toBeTruthy();
+	});
+
+	test('missed-but-not-red targets are warnings', () => {
+		const signals = evaluateSignals(makePayload({ kpis: { d1Return: 16 } }), settings);
+		expect(signals.find((s) => s.id === 'd1_return')!.severity).toBe('warn');
+	});
+
+	test('first-try rate outside the band is flagged', () => {
+		const tooEasy = evaluateSignals(makePayload({ kpis: { firstTryRate: 60 } }), settings);
+		expect(tooEasy.find((s) => s.id === 'first_try')!.severity).toBe('bad');
+		const tooHard = evaluateSignals(makePayload({ kpis: { firstTryRate: 5 } }), settings);
+		expect(tooHard.find((s) => s.id === 'first_try')!.severity).toBe('bad');
+	});
+
+	test('missing metrics surface as info, not failure', () => {
+		const signals = evaluateSignals(
+			makePayload({ kpis: { completionRate: null, shareRate: null } }),
+			settings
+		);
+		expect(signals.find((s) => s.id === 'completion')!.severity).toBe('info');
+		expect(signals.find((s) => s.id === 'share_rate')!.severity).toBe('info');
+	});
+
+	test('declining core players is a warning', () => {
+		const signals = evaluateSignals(
+			makePayload({ activity: { core: 30, corePrevious: 50 } }),
+			settings
+		);
+		expect(signals.find((s) => s.id === 'core_players')!.severity).toBe('warn');
+	});
+
+	test('sortSignals puts bad first', () => {
+		const signals = sortSignals(evaluateSignals(makePayload({ kpis: { d1Return: 5 } }), settings));
+		expect(signals[0].severity).toBe('bad');
+	});
+});
+
+describe('detectAnomaly', () => {
+	function series(values: number[], startWeekdayOffset = 0) {
+		// Build consecutive days starting 2026-08-01 so weekdays repeat every 7.
+		const out = values.map((value, i) => {
+			const d = new Date('2026-08-01T00:00:00Z');
+			d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate() + i);
+			return { date: d.toISOString().slice(0, 10), value };
+		});
+		void startWeekdayOffset;
+		return out;
+	}
+
+	test('flags a large weekday-aware spike', () => {
+		// 5 weeks of varying same-weekday values, then a spike.
+		const base: number[] = [];
+		for (let i = 0; i < 35; i++) base.push(100 + ((i * 13) % 17));
+		const spike = [...base, 500];
+		const anomaly = detectAnomaly(series(spike), 2);
+		expect(anomaly).not.toBeNull();
+		expect(anomaly!.value).toBe(500);
+	});
+
+	test('returns null for a flat series', () => {
+		expect(detectAnomaly(series(Array(35).fill(100)), 2)).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	test('returns null without enough history', () => {
+		expect(detectAnomaly(series([1, 2, 3]), 2)).toBeNull();
+	});
+});

tests/stats-snapshot.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,141 @@
+import { describe, test, expect, beforeEach, afterEach } from 'bun:test';
+import { testDb } from '$lib/server/db/test';
+import {
+	analyticsEvents,
+	dailyCompletions,
+	dailyVerses,
+	statsSnapshot
+} from '$lib/server/db/schema';
+import {
+	buildSnapshot,
+	computePayload,
+	computePlayerState,
+	ensureSnapshot,
+	PAYLOAD_SCHEMA_VERSION,
+	type LoadedData
+} from '$lib/server/stats/snapshot';
+import { SETTINGS_DEFAULTS, type CompletionRow } from '$lib/types/stats';
+import crypto from 'node:crypto';
+
+const settings = { ...SETTINGS_DEFAULTS };
+
+function c(anonymousId: string, date: string): CompletionRow {
+	return { anonymousId, date, guessCount: 3, guesses: null, completedAt: new Date(date) };
+}
+
+describe('computePlayerState', () => {
+	test('builds streak and rolling play counts as of the date', () => {
+		const completions: CompletionRow[] = [
+			c('A', '2026-09-08'),
+			c('A', '2026-09-09'),
+			c('A', '2026-09-10'),
+			c('A', '2026-08-01'),
+			c('B', '2026-09-10')
+		];
+		const state = computePlayerState(completions, '2026-09-10', 180);
+		const a = state.find((p) => p.id === 'A')!;
+		expect(a.firstDate).toBe('2026-08-01');
+		expect(a.lastDate).toBe('2026-09-10');
+		expect(a.totalPlays).toBe(4);
+		expect(a.plays7).toBe(3);
+		expect(a.streak).toBe(3);
+	});
+
+	test('drops players outside the active window', () => {
+		const state = computePlayerState([c('old', '2026-01-01')], '2026-09-10', 30);
+		expect(state).toHaveLength(0);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('computePayload point-in-time cutoff', () => {
+	const data: LoadedData = {
+		completions: [
+			c('A', '2026-09-10'),
+			c('A', '2026-09-11'), // future relative to asOfDate
+			c('B', '2026-09-11') // future
+		],
+		verses: [{ date: '2026-09-10', bookId: 'GEN' }],
+		startedByDate: new Map([['2026-09-10', 2]]),
+		shareEvents: 0,
+		firstEventDate: '2026-09-10',
+		signupDates: []
+	};
+
+	test('activity only reflects data up to the as-of date', () => {
+		const payload = computePayload('2026-09-10', settings, data);
+		expect(payload.activity.dau).toBe(1); // only A, not B (future)
+	});
+
+	test('completion rate uses verse_served events', () => {
+		const payload = computePayload('2026-09-10', settings, data);
+		expect(payload.meta.hasStartedData).toBe(true);
+		expect(payload.kpis.completionRate).not.toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	test('payload has all lab sections', () => {
+		const payload = computePayload('2026-09-10', settings, data);
+		expect(payload.retention.cohorts.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+		expect(payload.verseMix.coverage).toHaveLength(66);
+		expect(payload.habit.calendar.length).toBe(120);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('snapshot persistence', () => {
+	beforeEach(async () => {
+		await testDb.delete(statsSnapshot);
+		await testDb.delete(analyticsEvents);
+		await testDb.delete(dailyCompletions);
+		await testDb.delete(dailyVerses);
+	});
+	afterEach(async () => {
+		await testDb.delete(statsSnapshot);
+		await testDb.delete(analyticsEvents);
+		await testDb.delete(dailyCompletions);
+		await testDb.delete(dailyVerses);
+	});
+
+	async function seed() {
+		await testDb.insert(dailyCompletions).values([
+			{ id: crypto.randomUUID(), anonymousId: 'A', date: '2026-01-10', guessCount: 2, completedAt: new Date('2026-01-10T12:00:00Z') },
+			{ id: crypto.randomUUID(), anonymousId: 'A', date: '2026-01-11', guessCount: 3, completedAt: new Date('2026-01-11T12:00:00Z') },
+			{ id: crypto.randomUUID(), anonymousId: 'B', date: '2026-01-11', guessCount: 1, completedAt: new Date('2026-01-11T13:00:00Z') }
+		]);
+		await testDb.insert(dailyVerses).values([
+			{ id: crypto.randomUUID(), date: '2026-01-10', bookId: 'GEN', verseText: 'x', reference: 'Genesis 1:1' },
+			{ id: crypto.randomUUID(), date: '2026-01-11', bookId: 'EXO', verseText: 'y', reference: 'Exodus 1:1' }
+		]);
+	}
+
+	test('building the same date twice is idempotent', async () => {
+		await seed();
+		const first = await buildSnapshot('2026-01-10', { kind: 'lazy' }, testDb);
+		await buildSnapshot('2026-01-10', { kind: 'lazy' }, testDb);
+		const rows = await testDb.select().from(statsSnapshot);
+		expect(rows).toHaveLength(1);
+		expect(first.snapshot.payload.asOfDate).toBe('2026-01-10');
+		expect(first.snapshot.payload.activity.dau).toBe(1);
+	});
+
+	test('ensureSnapshot builds when missing and reads when present', async () => {
+		await seed();
+		const a = await ensureSnapshot('2026-01-10', {}, testDb);
+		const b = await ensureSnapshot('2026-01-10', {}, testDb);
+		expect(a.generatedAt.getTime()).toBe(b.generatedAt.getTime());
+		expect(a.buildKind).toBe('lazy');
+	});
+
+	test('rebuilds snapshots written with an outdated payload shape', async () => {
+		await seed();
+		await testDb.insert(statsSnapshot).values({
+			date: '2026-01-10',
+			generatedAt: new Date(),
+			buildKind: 'lazy',
+			configVersion: 'outdated',
+			payload: '{}',
+			playerState: '[]',
+			config: '{}'
+		});
+		const snap = await ensureSnapshot('2026-01-10', {}, testDb);
+		expect(snap.payload.meta?.schemaVersion).toBe(PAYLOAD_SCHEMA_VERSION);
+	});
+});

vite.config.ts

@@ -1,10 +1,21 @@
 import tailwindcss from '@tailwindcss/vite';
 import { sveltekit } from '@sveltejs/kit/vite';
-import { defineConfig } from 'vite';
+import { defineConfig, loadEnv } from 'vite';
 
-export default defineConfig({
-	plugins: [tailwindcss(), sveltekit()],
-	server: {
-		allowedHosts: ['bibdle.com']
+export default defineConfig(({ mode }) => {
+	// SvelteKit evaluates server modules during the build, and `$lib/server/db`
+	// requires DATABASE_URL at import time. Bun does not always surface the
+	// auto-loaded `.env` to Vite's build workers, so copy `.env` values into
+	// `process.env` here (without overriding a real environment variable).
+	const env = loadEnv(mode, process.cwd(), '');
+	for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(env)) {
+		if (process.env[key] === undefined) process.env[key] = value;
 	}
+
+	return {
+		plugins: [tailwindcss(), sveltekit()],
+		server: {
+			allowedHosts: ['bibdle.com']
+		}
+	};
 });